I'm not going to lie, I'm feeling a sense of near-overwhelming despair for what politics in this country has become. While there is a chance Democrats could beat their polls by the point or so that would be necessary and hold on to a majority in the Senate tomorrow - and indeed there is evidence of Democratic overperformance happening in the special elections over the summer due to voter anger at the Supreme Court - the odds of that happening tomorrow simply feel remote to me. The public is on the verge of electing a cavalcade of conspiracy theorists and authoritarians into power in the Congress - and also state legislatures and governorships across America - and I really don't know how long this country and our democracy will be able to survive what increasingly feels like a widely ascendant fascist political movement.

I have no idea what to make of things anymore. The frustrating lack of polling has continued, and what little there has been is mostly either from nakedly partisan polling firms or else from groups that are brand new and have no track record. I'm flying blind trying to make dubious guesses based more on the national generic ballot numbers than anything else, and I'm sad and and angry and exhausted all at the same time. I genuinely regret even trying to do predictions this year with as little data as there is to work with. No idea what my final map on November 7th will be, I may end up literally doing coin flips if I can't get more clarity, but for now I'm just getting a pessimistic map out of my system because that is what my mental and emotional state is demanding.

Overall, I am very, very nervous about how this election is going to go, given the national environment and the general unreliability of the polls in recent years, but thus far what seemed true at the beginning of the cycle still seems true now: a number of unqualified and incompetent Republican nominees may end up saving the Senate for Democrats, which for now I still see as basically Tilt Democratic. Additionally, even given the questions I have about its reliability and how to appropriately adjust for future bias given past bias, there has been an incredibly frustrating lack of any polling lately, so I feel like I'm even less certain about anything than I should be at this point in the cycle. Given the lack of data to work with, there are only two changes of significance on this map. First, I have moved North Carolina from Tossup to Lean Republican as Budd has moved into a bit more consistent of a lead there. Second, there has been enough polling weirdness in the Lee/McMullin race in Utah that I have decided to switch that state from Solid Republican to Lean Republican, though in reality it's probably something more along the lines of Likely Republican if we had that category. Next map is planned for October 31st, when hopefully I will have a bit more data to work with.

Some more substantial changes on this map. Arizona moves to Lean Democratic as Kelly's lead has remained fairly consistent there, while Wisconsin moves to Lean Republican as the polls showing Barnes in the lead have proven entirely ephemeral. Georgia is looking a *bit* better than it was at the time of the last map, but not enough to make any ratings change. I have shifted North Carolina to Tossup as the polls have continued to defy my expectations and remained close, though I'm still very doubtful about Beasley's ability to close strong there. Finally, though I was at one point considering changing Pennsylvania to Lean Democratic, it remains Tossup here due to the fairly significant tightening in recent polling. Next update will be two weeks from now.

Just a fairly minor update this time. A number of signals are really starting to come together to suggest that this November might be fairly neutral politically overall, and things are looking quite good for Democrats in a number of the Senate races - including fairly solid polling leads in Arizona and Pennsylvania and a surprising but smaller polling lead in Wisconsin. In spite of this, I am holding off making any significant changes in those states just yet - I want to wait until we're closer to election day to make sure things are staying consistent and this isn't just a weird polling fluke. I don't plan to update as often as I have in past election cycles, so next map will probably be at the start of October. If the national environment and the state polling still looks decent for Democrats at that point then you can expect to see some significant changes, as there will be far less time for things to revert toward the normal anti-incumbent-party midterm mean.

I have, for some reason, talked myself into doing predictions on here yet again. I do not have a great sense at all how this year is going to go: the national environment certainly doesn't look good for Democrats, but the dynamics of individual races give the impression that it actually is entirely possible for Democrats to retain control in spite of everything, mostly because of a series of poor Republican nominees. I suspect I will remain deeply uncertain about a lot of this the whole way to November, especially as I don't know how to feel about the polling after what were some pretty egregious misses in 2020.