Election 2022 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2022-09-25 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	14
Rep	20
Ind	0
Non	16

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	19
Ind	0
Tos	2
Non	16

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	-1	0	-1	12	1	13	0
Rep	+1	0	+1	0	-1	-1	15	4	19	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (118th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	14	34	48
Republican	20	29	49
Independent	0	2	2

Analysis

At this point don't see Dems losing any seats besides NV and GA. Likely will pick up PA and hold onto AZ. NH unlikely to be in play.<br /> Republicans likely to hold WI, OH and NC.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2022 Senate	32/35	26/35	58/70	82.9%	7	2	97	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	28/36	62/72	86.1%	2	2	23	T	272
2020 President	53/56	48/56	101/112	90.2%	9	5	23	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	24/35	56/70	80.0%	3	3	44	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	1	141	10	T	293
Aggregate Predictions	162/173	134/173	296/346	85.5%