Election 2022 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2021-12-26 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	10
Rep	24
Ind	0
Non	16

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	10
Rep	24
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	16

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-4	0	-4	9	1	10	-4
Rep	+4	0	+4	0	0	0	15	5	20	+4
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (118th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	10	34	44
Republican	24	29	53
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
46	29	17

Analysis

New York, California, Maryland, Vermont, Hawaii, Connecticut ALL under 60% Dem due to strong pro-R swings from 2020 results <br /> <br /> Dems have a tiny sliver of a chance at NV/NH/PA in the best of circumstances, but their chances of going Republican is about as strong as FL&TX were of going Democrap in 2020 (i.e. lots of people think there's a solid chance, but it turns out the stars really needed to align for Trump not to easily win them).

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	29/35	17/35	46/70	65.7%	1	317	291	T	305
2022 Governor	23/36	13/36	36/72	50.0%	1	317	267		272
2020 President	48/56	32/56	80/112	71.4%	2	404	627	T	684
2019 Governor	1/3	0/3	1/6	16.7%	1	16	179	T	192
Aggregate Predictions	101/130	62/130	163/260	62.7%

User Info

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