Tag Archives: Vigo County

Vigo County, IN Extends Bellwether Streak

Vigo County, Indiana is the the most prominent bellwether of presidential elections in the country – voting for the winning candidate in every election from 1956 through 2012.  Indiana County Map Highlighting Vigo County Furthermore, Vigo County has picked the winner in 30 of the last 32 Presidential Elections.  It barely missed in 1952, voting for Adlai Stevenson over Dwight Eisenhower by 0.07% and a more substantial 10.6% miss in 1908 by choosing William Bryan over William Howard Taft.  The list of hits, however, is much longer – Vigo extended its streak in 2012 by voting for Barack Obama – although barely with a margin of only 0.86% (49.3% to 48.4%).  The table below compares the results in Vigo County to the National results for the years 1888 through 2012.  The average margin delta (difference between the margin in Vigo County and the margin nationwide) for the last 124 years is only 4%.  The accompanying bar chart is a graphical representation of these data.

Year National Vigo Nat Margin Vigo Margin Margin ∆
1888 Rep Rep 0.83% 1.36% -0.5%
1892 Dem Dem 3.01% 3.40% 0.4%
1896 Rep Rep 4.31% 2.95% 1.4%
1900 Rep Rep 6.13% 3.25% 2.9%
1904 Rep Rep 18.83% 20.19% -1.4%
1908 Rep Dem 8.53% 2.07% 10.6%
1912 Dem Dem 14.44% 12.56% -1.9%
1916 Dem Dem 3.12% 9.92% 6.8%
1920 Rep Rep 26.17% 7.89% 18.3%
1924 Rep Rep 25.22% 17.66% 7.6%
1928 Rep Rep 17.42% 10.61% 6.8%
1932 Dem Dem 17.76% 16.77% -1.0%
1936 Dem Dem 24.25% 31.02% 6.8%
1940 Dem Dem 9.95% 11.64% 1.7%
1944 Dem Dem 7.49% 6.83% -0.7%
1948 Dem Dem 4.48% 15.05% 10.6%
1952 Rep Dem 10.85% 0.07% 10.9%
1956 Rep Rep 15.40% 1.14% 14.3%
1960 Dem Dem 0.16% 0.33% 0.2%
1964 Dem Dem 22.58% 18.41% -4.2%
1968 Rep Rep 0.70% 1.04% -0.3%
1972 Rep Rep 23.15% 22.13% 1.0%
1976 Dem Dem 2.06% 2.32% 0.3%
1980 Rep Rep 9.74% 10.47% -0.7%
1984 Rep Rep 18.22% 17.41% 0.8%
1988 Rep Rep 7.73% 6.63% 1.1%
1992 Dem Dem 5.56% 5.26% -0.3%
1996 Dem Dem 8.52% 5.77% -2.8%
2000 Rep Rep √* 0.52% 1.24% -0.7%
2004 Rep Rep 2.46% 6.45% -4.0%
2008 Dem Dem 7.26% 15.77% 8.5%
2012 Dem Dem 3.85% 0.86% -3.0%

*In 2000, the popular vote went to Albert Gore, Jr., but the electoral vote went to George W. Bush.
Vigo County, Indiana Bar Chart