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Archive for the ‘European Elections 2009’ Category

Europe 2009!

Thursday, February 19th, 2009

The hunter’s party, CPNT has decided that it will not run independent lists, instead it will run common lists with the MPF. These MPF-CPNT lists are under the banner of the new European political party, Libertas. Not really a surprise, because CPNT is similar to the MPF when it comes to Europe. The idea of MPF-CPNT lists had already floated around a bit in, until Saint-Josse rejected the deal. In 2004, both parties combined won 8.4% (6.67% for the MPF, 1.73% for CPNT).  Frédéric Nihous will lead the MPF-CPNT in the North-West, and Jean Saint-Josse in the South-West.

IFOP has just released a new poll, which is their second poll since November 2008, not counting that poll the PG commissioned for their wet dream. The change is compared to November 2008, but the UMP change is compared to the total UMP+NC polled separately, and the MPF-CPNT change is compared to the the total MPF+CPNT polled separately.

UMP 26% (+2)
PS 23% (+1)
MoDem 14.5% (+2.5)
Greens 7% (-4)
NPA 9% (+1)
FN 6% (-1)
PCF-PG 4% (n/c)
LO 3% (-1)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 5% (-2)
DLR 2% (+1)
FNd 0.5% (+0.5) (only polled in NW and SW)

Demographic and political breakdowns are interesting.

  • Left-wingers and Trots break 46 PS, 17 NPA, 14 Greenie, 9 PCF, 6 LO. The LO breakdown is interesting, but to take with a grain of salt: Half would vote for an LO list, 21 PS, 13 Greens, a surprising 8% for Libertas, and only 5% for their fellow Trots at the NPA. Shows how the LO and NPA hate each other. Not a lot of other interesting stuff there, except that 12% of Greenies vote MoDem.
  • Right-wingers (IFOP isn’t clear if this includes far-right or not, though their “no partisan preference” sample seems heavily far-right to me) are less divided: 63% UMP, 14% FN, 12% Libertas.
  • Royal voters in April 2007 break 69 PS, 10 NPA, 9 Greenies.
  • Sarkozy voters in April 2007 break 62 UMP, 8 Libertas, 8 MoDem, 6 FN.
  • Bayrou voters in April 2007 break 61 MoDem, 18 UMP, 12 PS, 6 Greenies.
  • OUI voters in 2005 break heavily UMP: 41 UMP, 23 MoDem, 21 PS. NON voters in 2005 are more divided: 24 PS, 16 UMP, 14 NPA, 11 MoDem, 11 Libertas, 8 PCF.
  • The PS keeps 70% of its 2004 EU voters, with 10% voting NPA, 6% PCF, and 6% MoDem. The Greens keep only 59% of its 2004 voters, bleeding equally to the PS and the MoDem. The UMP keeps a full 84% of its 2004 voters, with 10% of those voting MoDem. Interestingly, only 54% of the UDF voters in 2004 plan on voting MoDem, with 34% going UMP.
  • Manual Workers (Ouvriers) go 23% PS, 19% NPA, 17% UMP, 16% FN.

On a funny side note, the FN lists will be named Listes d’Entente Populaire Et Nationale, abbreviated LEPEN…Yes, the FN isn’t much of a personalist party.

Rundown of recent EU election polls

Sunday, January 25th, 2009

Around three polls have come out for the EU elections, including one public release (IFOP for ParisMatch), as well as other polls that have not been officially published.

It remains a bit early for these polls to have any real value, and neither the lists are finalized nor are we even close to the elections. In fact, around 55% say their voting intentions are not set in stone.

  • The UMP is at around 22-25% according to those polls; with the PS trailing with around 20%.
  • The MoDem seems to be maintaining itself at the UDF’s 2004 levels (12%). It is at around 12-13%, and that number goes up to 14.5% in the absence of NC lists (it seems unlikely that the NC wishes to commit political suicide by running a list- it’s polling around 2-3%. The NC will likely get spots on UMP lists).
  • The far-left (Besancenot’s new NPA and Laguiller’s LO) seems to be in prime position to win its best EU election results ever (its previous best was in 1999, 5.2% a common LO-LCR list) and also a result similar to 2002. The NPA would be at an historic 8-10%, while the LO is also performing decently (considering how bad they have polled in past elections) with around 3-4%. The combined far-left could very well break 10%, possibly even 13%.
  • The new ecologist union around Cohn-Bendit (Greenies and so forth) is polling around 11-10% (around their best results in EU elections, 1989 and 1999).
  • The FN is also polling decently and is above 5%, with around 6-7%. It would still represent a drop since 2004, where it won nearly 10%. However, the presence of FN dissident lists (led by the faction that hates Marine Le Pen) in a few regions, including the Nord-Ouest could hurt the FN by splitting the far-right vote and preventing one or another to win a seat (5% threshold).
  • The MPF’s numbers seem to be fluctuating from poll to poll. Some polls have them as low as 3% (they won 6.8% in 2004), while others have them as high as 8%. It seems to have trouble polling over 5%, with an average of 4-5%. However, it still trounces the other national-conservative list in this election, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan’s DLR (Arise the Republic. What a tinpot name) which is polling around 1%.
  • The PCF-PG “noniste” coalition has progressed since last year, when the PCF alone polled 2.5% and the PCF-PG now polls around 5%.

In terms of voter demographics, the breakdowns are quite interesting

  • 62 to 63% of Sarkozy’s first round voters in 2007 are intending to vote for a UMP list. 52-54% of Royal’s voters will do likewise with a PS list, but only 48% of Bayrou’s first round voters will vote for a MoDem list, the rest splitting for the UMP/PS/Greenies.
  • The PS is stuck in a weird position with Europe. Around 22-23% of the no voters in 2005 will vote PS, while a similar number of oui voters (20ish) will vote PS. The PS will need to be careful defining its position on Europe, though knowing them they’ll probably make empty statements along the lines of “Social Europe” or “Europe with social justice”.
  • The no voters are split this way: PS (22-23%), UMP (17-20%), NPA (15-17%), PCF-PG (9-10%), MoDem (7-10%), Greenies (6-9%), MPF (6-9%), FN (6%), etc.
  • Yes voters : UMP (34%), PS (20%), MoDem (17-20%), Greenies (8%), etc.

Here are the major lists that will run no matter what: The UMP-NC, PS (now supported by the LeftRads), MoDem, Greenies/ecologist front, MPF (which will likely run under the Irish Libertas thingee), Nicolas Dupont-Aignan’s outfit (supported by small groups with tinpot names and the lol Bonapartists lol), PCF-PG, FN, NPA/the Trots/LO.

Other possible lists include the relatively new Alternative libérale  (the classical liberal party run in, ironically, an authoritarian manner); a possible ecologist front (MEI, France en action, and what remains of GE); Paul-Marie Coûteaux, an MEP elected with the MPF in 2004 but leader of a small outfit called the RIF might run alone (rofl. political suicide); the “We Hate Marine Le Pen” FN dissidents (Carl Lang and Jean-Claude Martinez); an annoying Esperanto thingee; the royalists; a ROFL Maoist party; the old CNIP (which is now out of the UMP’s circle of friends) will run independent lists in a few regions; the Parti Breton; and finally the LaRouchites, again.

In other news, the UMP has nominated most of its top candidates by constituency. Incumbent MEPs are bolded.

  • Sud-Est: F. Grossetête
  • Nord-Ouest: D. Riquet / T. Saïfi (2nd)
  • Île-de-France: M. Barnier / R. Dati (2nd)
  • Ouest: C. Béchu / É. Morin (2nd)
  • Sud-Ouest: D. Baudis
  • Est: J. Daul
  • Massif central-Centre: J.-P. Audy

They went for some big names in Paris (very big names in this case) and the Sud-Ouest (never say that the Baudis dynasty is dead). An interesting choice in Christophe Béchu, the young UMP President of the Maine-et-Loire general council. Élisabeth Morin, former UMP President of Poitou-Charentes (she was defeated by the drug addict in 2004), is an MEP since Roselyne Bachelot resigned. In the Nord-Ouest, Borloo and the Rads were able to get the Mayor of Valenciennes, Dominique Riquet to be top candidate. Valérie Létard, a NC cabinet member, was offered that post, but she prefers to try her hand at running in the regionals next year. Tokia Saïfi, a former GE member and now a Rad, will need to live with a second spot, after getting the top spot in 2004. In the Sud-Ouest, incumbent MEP Alain Lamassoure will either need to live with a third spot (he was #1 in 2004) or there is some talk of carpetbagging him to IdF. Only Grossetête and Daul led UMP lists in their respective constituencies in 2004.

Meanwhile, in the world of the Greenies.

Here are the top candidates for Europe Ecologie, a rally of Greenies, antiglobalization people, regionalists (the sell-out UDB and Partit Occitan) and so forth.

  • Nord-Ouest: Hélène Flautre, MEP / François Dufour, antiglobalization thingee leader
  • Nord-Est: Sandrine Bélier, ecologist jurist / Jacques Muller, Green Senator for the Haut-Rhin
  • Ouest: Yannick Jadot, leader of a ecologist organization / Nicole Kiil-Nielsen, Green candidate in Rennes (2008)
  • Île de France: Daniel Cohn-Bendit, MEP / Eva Joly, former magistrate
  • Massif central-Centre: Jean-Paul Besset, close to Nicolas Hulot
  • Sud-Ouest : José Bové, Astérix / Catherine Grèze
  • Sud-Est : Michèle Rivasi, former Green MP and deputy-mayor of Valence / François Alfonsi, Corsican regionalist

Parti Breton, regionalists and the 2009 EU elections

Sunday, November 2nd, 2008

The Parti Breton (Strollad Breizh) has announced its intentions to contest the 2009 European parliamentary elections in France. The PB is a small centrist-liberal party that wants Breton independence. Irrelevant anyways, but brought me to think about regionalists and EU elections.

  • In 2004, despite a million tiny unknown lists running, only one regionalist list ran. A Régionalistes : Occitanie, Catalogne, Euskadi list ran in the South-West constituency and got 0.37 in that constituency.
  • In 1999, a Martinican based-list, 97.2: mi ou, mi mwen, which was a small liberal party in the Martinique. It got 6% in Martinique, and 0.03% nationwide.
  • 1994 saw the most regionalist lists run: two. The most important was a regionalist/federalist list led by Max Siméoni, a Corsican nat. It won 0.39% nationwide, but broke 10.5% in Corse-du-Sud and 11.3% in Haute-Corse. The other list was a Rassemblement d’Outre-mer (Overseas Rally) led by the Guadeloupean Communist (PPDG) Ernest Moutoussamy. The list won Guadeloupe with 37.25%. In Martinique, it got 20.2%, 17.04% in Guyane, and a mere 4.82% in the Reunion.