Question:

The top lines of the internal polling shared with donors are relatively consistent with sparse public surveys that show Biden with a small edge in Virginia, while Trump’s advantage in his own polling in Minnesota is at odds with the few public surveys in that state. But all of the public polls in Minnesota and Virginia — and the trials run by Trump’s campaign — fall within their margins of error, suggesting tight races in both states.

Trump’s team tested head-to-head, four-way and six-way races in each state, according to LaCivita. In the six-way trial in Minnesota, which includes four independent candidates, Trump and Biden were tied at 40% apiece, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9%, he said. When the field was narrowed to four candidates, Trump led Biden 46% to 41%. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump led Biden 49% to 46%.

Biden won Minnesota by about 7 percentage points in 2020, and the state has not favored a Republican nominee for president since Richard Nixon’s 1972 re-election campaign.

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