Your Republican Contender Power Rankings/Probabilities

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

We did Probabilities awhile back so how have yours evolved since Romney declined and the first third of candidates have declared? Threw in tiers this time to define candidate groups.

Rubio way up for me, taking the Romney role. Huckabee and Carson have said too many stupid things to be allowed the nomination so their chance has been consolidated into the real competitors plus dark horse SoCons who might actually have a small chance if they get any momentum.

Tier 1: The Frontrunners
1. Scott Walker 25%
2. Marco Rubio 20%
3. John Ellis Bush 15%
4. Rand Paul 15%

Tier 2: The Dark Horses
5. Chris Christie 10%
6. John Kasich 5%
7. Ted Cruz 5%
8. Bobby Jindal 2%

Tier 3: They Can Compete But Can't Win the Nomination
9. Mike Huckabee 1.5%
10. Ben Carson 0.5%

Tier 4: Likely Can't Compete Unless Someone Falters
11. Rick Santorum 0.3%
12. Donald Trump 0.3%
13. Rick Perry 0.2%

Tier 4: The Debaters
14. Lindsey Graham 0.1%
15. Carly Fiorina 0.1%

Tier 5: The Semi-Joke Candidates
16. Jim Gilmore
17. Bob Ehrlich
18. George Pataki
19. John Bolton
20. Peter King
21. Mark Everson

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Reality check on the huge margin for error with these things….this thread was made just two weeks before the 2008 Iowa caucuses:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=66629.0

True, true, wild swings will always happen with indecisive voters and gaffes, but that thread was still giving McCain a 15% chance for the most part. I think 25 might've been more reasonable. If Thompson dropped out or Romney holds Iowa, we might ve been talking about a different result. Huck+Romney at 85 was really only slightly too high.