2011 State Elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

Northrhine-Westphalia's supplementary budget was ruled unconstitutional yesterday. CDU is calling for early elections, while the FDP is making demands for joining the SPD/Green minority coalition (well, they would get crushed in early elections right now). We'll see what happens. That is if something happens.

[Tender Branson]

How can a budget be ruled unconstitutional ?

What did they cut or expand so heavily to disqualify it ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, technically it hasn't been ruled unconstitutional... yet. However, the court has imposed an injunction which orders the state government to put the supplementary budget on hold, until the court can rule on it. It's still a major blow, because for the time being they can't use the money (or strictly speaking, make more debt).


For more information:

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http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14773743,00.html

[Tender Branson]

New Sachsen-Anhalt state elections poll:





Interesting how well the Left does, despite the fact that Left frontrunner Wulf Gallert has horrible personal ratings compared with the frontrunners of the CDU and SPD.

[Insula Dei]

Interesting how well the Left does, despite the fact that Left frontrunner Wulf Gallert has horrible personal ratings compared with the frontrunners of the CDU and SPD.

I imagine that he only has a positive perception with his own voters and terrible ratings with everyone else, so Die Linke's result will probably not be affected by this. Am I right?

[Middle-aged Europe]

What we really need is a Mecklenburg-Vorpommern poll, since the last one is from May 2009.

[Tender Branson]

What we really need is a Mecklenburg-Vorpommern poll, since the last one is from May 2009.

Today you get what you asked for !

Forsa poll of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern:



http://www.ostsee-zeitung.de/nachrichten/brennpunkt/index_artikel_komplett.phtml?param=news&id=3019085

[Tender Branson]

The NPD @ 5% at this point probably means that they will enter state parliament again.

In the early days of the 2006 campaign, the NPD started with 3% and finally got 7%.

Not that it necessarily has to be so, as was seen in the last Saxony elections ...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Today you get what you asked for !

Hooray!

The NPD @ 5% at this point probably means that they will enter state parliament again.

Yeah, it's Mecklenburg-Vorpommern after all.


I'm actually surprised that the FDP is gonna make it past 5% again as well. I mean they were polled at 4% in their stronghold Baden-Württemberg in December.

Seems to me that Erwin Sellering is gonna have the options of continuing the Grand coalition or doing SPD/Left/Greens (maybe SPD/Left if either the SPD or the Left gets a bit stronger than that).

(Trivia: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is the only German state where the Greens never managed to enter the state parliament so far.)

[Tender Branson]

Saarland's state premier to leave post this year

Saarland premier Peter Müller announced plans Saturday to step down as the state's top politician and CDU party leader in 2011. The news comes amid speculation that Müller will seek a spot on Germany's Constitutional Court.

Müller has held the top post in Saarland since 1999. He officially announced his intent to resign following a conference of CDU state leaders in his hometown of Eppelborn.

Saarland's Christian Democrats have tapped Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who is currently serving as social affairs minister, to succeed Müller.

     

Under her party's plan, Kramp-Karrenbauer would be voted in as Müller's replacement after Easter and would take over his position before or after the parliament's summer break.

Since 2009, Müller has been head of a three-party coalition between his Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats and Greens – the only so-called "Jamaica" coalition in any German state.

Müller's decision to step down follows a string of high-profile resignations from prominent Christian Democratic politicians over the past year-and-a-half alone. Both former Hessian state premier Roland Koch and ex-Hamburg Mayor Ole von Beust stepped down in 2010.

Müller said the CDU's state leaders and Chancellor Angela Merkel had given him their blessing.

Before becoming state premier in 1999, the 55-year-old worked as a judge for several years in both district and regional courts.

During a press conference in Eppelborn on Saturday, Müller dodged questions as to whether he was looking to join the German Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe, saying simply he wanted "new challenges." He added there was no need to make any decisions yet.

"There are different options," Müller said.

http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20110122-32601.html

[minionofmidas]

Lol Müller. The SC nomination has been dried and dusted (and public knowledge) almost a week before the public announcement. The intervening time went on ensuring an uncontested succession.

[Tender Branson]

New Rheinland-Pfalz state elections poll by Infratest dimap for the SWR:

37% (+4) CDU
37%  (-9) SPD
13% (+8) Greens
  5% (+3) Left
  5%  (-3) FDP
  3%  (-3) Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

Scandals Tarnish German Military

By JUDY DEMPSEY
Published: January 25, 2011

BERLIN — In his annual report issued Tuesday, Germany’s ombudsman for the armed forces, Hellmut Königshaus, delivered a harshly critical assessment of training and leadership methods, just as a string of scandals threatened the reputation of the defense minister, Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, the country’s most popular politician.



After the release of the 70-page report, which garnered wide attention from the media, Mr. Königshaus said that young service members and supervisors had too little experience to see “when boundaries of breach of duty and criminal offense are crossed.”

In normal circumstances, such a report by Mr. Königshaus, a federal lawmaker who a year ago was appointed to be the military ombudsman, would not have received much attention were it not for the scandals of recent weeks.

The scandals have become major news, with Mr. Guttenberg, a suave, ambitious politician, having to bear the brunt of them. They include allegations of a mutiny on a naval training ship last November after a 25-year-old cadet fell to her death from rigging. The ship, the Gorch Fock, is a three-masted sailing vessel used to train naval cadets.

German news reports said that recruits were reluctant to climb the rigging after her death and this led to mistreatment by superior officers.

In December, a soldier serving in Afghanistan was shot and killed after he and his colleagues had been playing with their weapons. The military had reported that the soldier had accidentally shot himself while cleaning his weapon. According to preliminary investigations, however, he was killed by a shot fired by a fellow soldier. Mr. Guttenberg, who regularly visits the 4,700 German troops in Afghanistan, was there last month.

And over the past three months, many letters sent home by German troops in Afghanistan were, according to a report issued last week by Mr. Königshaus, “systematically” opened before delivery. Some envelopes were even empty when they reached their destination.

Analysts say the scandals, which have come to light over the past 10 days, reflect a lack of communication between the military leadership and Mr. Guttenberg — or else that Mr. Guttenberg has been trying to cover up the incidents to protect his reputation, a charge he has denied.

Mr. Guttenberg relieved Norbert Schatz, the commander of the Gorch Fock, of his post last weekend. Opposition leaders said Mr. Guttenberg was reacting too hastily and in his own interest.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/26/world/europe/26iht-germany26.html

[jeron]

Two new polls by Emnid today:

Baden-Württemberg
CDU 40%
SPD 20%
GRÜNE 27%
FDP 5%
Linke 4%

Nordrhein-Westfalen
CDU 36%
SPD 36%
GRÜNE 15%
FDP 4%
Linke 4%

[Franzl]

Two new polls by Emnid today:

Baden-Württemberg
CDU 40%
SPD 20%
GRÜNE 27%
FDP 5%
Linke 4%

Impressive that CDU-FDP is just barely losing a majority in this scenario.

[Tender Branson]

It seems like the CDU is finally reaping the rewards of the continued good economic situation (or is something else to "blame" ?). Their poll numbers have gone up significantly in recent weeks.

[Tender Branson]

New Hamburg poll:

45% (+11) SPD
25%  (-18) CDU
16%   (+6) Greens
  6%    (nc) Left
  4%    (-1) FDP
  4%   (+2) Others

Almost a majority for SPD (45-47), but otherwise SPD-Greens.

[jeron]

Another poll in Hamburg, this time by Infratest Dimap:

46% SPD
25% CDU
14% Greens
  6% Left
  5% FDP
 
No majority for SPD. I doubt if FDP will get 5% of the vote though.  They only had 4.8% in 2008 and they were generally doing better in the polls at that time.

[Tender Branson]

New Baden-Württemberg poll by Infratest dimap:

39% CDU
24% Greens
21% SPD
  6% FDP
  5% Left
  5% Others

No majority for SPD-Greens and CDU-FDP.

New Nordrhein-Westfalen poll by Forsa:

35% CDU
34% SPD
17% Greens
  4% Left
  4% FDP
  6% Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

New Baden-Württemberg poll by FGW:

41% CDU
25% Greens
19% SPD
  6% FDP
  4% Left
  5% Others

Majority for CDU-FDP.

New Rheinland-Pfalz poll by FGW:

37% SPD
35% CDU
13% Greens
  5% FDP
  4% Left
  6% Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

[jeron]

New Baden-Württemberg poll by FGW:

41% CDU
25% Greens
19% SPD
  6% FDP
  4% Left
  5% Others

Majority for CDU-FDP.

It must be the first time in over half a year that CDU and FDP have a majority in a poll in Baden-Württemberg. That is good news for them, less than two months before the elections.

[Tender Branson]

Greens back to the lowest level in half a year according to a new Emnid poll:

35%  (+1) CDU/CSU
27%  (+4) SPD
17%  (+6) Greens
10%   (-2) Left
  5% (-10) FDP
  6%   (nc) Others

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

[Hans-im-Glück]

Greens back to the lowest level in half a year according to a new Emnid poll:

35%  (+1) CDU/CSU
27%  (+4) SPD
17%  (+6) Greens
10%   (-2) Left
  5% (-10) FDP
  6%   (nc) Others

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

The numbers of the Greens are going slowly down, but 17% is still very very good for them. The SPD is recovering a little bit of time to their low point at the last election, but I'm not sure this is just a snapshot or goes further. If this is the result of the next election, then we see another CDU/CSU - SPD coalition. Black/Green is not possible at this time.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Another poll in Hamburg, this time by Infratest Dimap:

46% SPD
25% CDU
14% Greens
  6% Left
  5% FDP
  
No majority for SPD. I doubt if FDP will get 5% of the vote though.  They only had 4.8% in 2008 and they were generally doing better in the polls at that time.

I'd say the Greens will manage to get into the state government if the FDP manages to get into the state parliament (without the FDP in parliament it could come down to an absolute majortiy for SPD).

Now does that mean that Green supporters are going to vote FDP for tactical reasons or would they rather cut their hands off?

[minionofmidas]

Hamburg has changed its election law again. There's now open lists and five votes per voter for the statewide equalizing seats as well as the 3-5 member constituencies.
According to election.de, while Forschungsgruppe Wahlen asks people expressly how many of the citywide list votes they want to give to which parties, other pollsters active in the city weren't even aware of the law.

Bremen too has introduced open lists and five votes apiece from the next election on, btw (but still only two constituencies with fixed numbers of seats, ie the two cities.)