Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Cranberry]

Oh my.... This is incredibly sad, even disappointing - I would have thought that the Austrian population was at least slightly less racist, slightly less stupid.

[Cranberry]

If so then Hofer has a good 50/50 shot if not better at winning based on this poll.  My sense is that he should be the underdog.  Him coming in so strong on the first round will most likely scare passive center-left voters to come out in the second round to vote in large numbers.

From what I've seen on social media, exactly the opposite seems to be the case, i.e. it's mainly resignation and disappointment at the result.

[Cranberry]

Who are NEOS folks voting for?

Van der Bellen and Griss, mostly.

[Cranberry]

    Will the defeated candidates endorse either one of the finalists?  Khol and Lugner for Hofer, Griss and Hundstorfer for VDB?

So far, none. Lugner has said he will not endorse anyone, Griss says she is thinking about it (but I have a hard time imagining her as endorsing Hofer). Khol and Hundtsorfer respectively are not important, what counts are the endorsements of Faymann and Mitterlehner. The latter has not said anything yet, iirc, but Faymann has said he will vote for Van der Bellen.

[Cranberry]

It's obviously beyond time for Faymann to just go away, but I suspect they don't want to "waste" a new leader, because a huge loss at the next elections will be inevitable. Basically, I think the SPÖ has two roads going forward:

Dumping Faymann now -> installing some old, "caretaker" PM that still enjoys some respect but has no more political aspirations for his future (they could dig out some old Vranitzky/Klima-era ministers, or maybe the ÖGB leader Foglar?) -> that guy loses the next election -> they get a new leader, this time to stay (Kern?), who would hypothetically be in the position to rebuild the party and reposition them in opposition

Keeping Faymann on now -> Faymann loses the election (probably more badly than someone else would) -> Faymann gets dumped, replaced by some other guy (Kern?) -> again, the last point from above is possible; but I fear not really likely...

[Cranberry]

Quick question Tender, who are you (or did already, iirc you said you'd too vote via Wahlkarte) going to vote for? My intentions should be clear to you, I guess, but I'm interested in yours.

[Cranberry]

My postal ballot for the runoff has arrived today ...

I will send in my ballot for Alexander Van der Bellen tomorrow.

You didn't already order your second-round ballot with the first one?

But good that you vote for VdB! I voted a few days ago (I already had my second round ballot), my choice should be obvious.

You said your family all will vote Hofer? How is your circle of friends voting?

My friends are basically 100% Van Der Bellen, which is kind of self-explainatory if you consider my and their backgrounds: young, suburban-ish, middle-class to upper middle-class, nearly all with families with a high-education background, on road to higher education themselves (currently having the Matura this week, most will go on to study at a uni).

My family is more split: my sister, her fiancée and my mother are all Green-voters, so naturally VdB. My dad is more pro-ÖVP, but he voted blank in the first round; my mum and I persuaded him to vote VdB now though, it was more of a vote against Hofer. My grandparents are all very much ÖVP (rural-ish Tyrol, so naturally), and I suspect my dad's parents will vote Hofer. I'm not sure about my maternal grandparents, they are generally very anti-FPÖ, especially grandpa, so I hope they will vote VdB, but if not, don't vote at all or vote blank.

[Cranberry]

Hofer's latest newspaper ad was quite hilarious:



The word "erhalten" has 2 very different meanings in German:

"Only he wants to preserve the cash/paper money."

or

"Only he wants to receive the cash/paper money."

Why would paper money need preserving? Is Austria considering abandoning paper money, as Norway has been talking about doing?

No, and that is the weird thing about this, even for Austrian contexts, very strange issue. No one ever said anything of that like, no one supports or has even advocated for abolishing paper money. The ECB decided to scrap the 500€ note, which is good as noone ever uses it and most stores don't even accept it, and Strache + FPÖ took that up immediately to spin a narrative of "evil EU-(jewish-freemason-)Bankers want to steal good Austrian citizens paper money, namh namh namh" and for weeks have now been talking about how they "will preserve paper money" and whatnot - while noone has ever said they are against it...

Typical FPÖ behaviour, this sadly is the level political discourse has fallen to in Austria.

[Cranberry]

  Maybe VDB does really well in Vienna and nowhere else but still wins.  That would be an Illinois scenario where the Dem wins Cook county massively, loses every other county in the state, but still wins.  I believed this happened in the 2010 governor race.

Except that, in contrast to Illinois, there are urban areas in Austria where the Greens do really well - Innsbruck, Graz, Bregenz, Linz, to a lesser extent Salzburg. Van der Bellen is definitely going to win all of them, just as their suburbs. I also wouldn't count him out in Landeck district in Tirol, which is one of the most rural districts but his home district, where he got up to 60% in some municipalities.

[Cranberry]

What is the FPO's economic platform currently like? I know people always talk about them having working class support but I was under the impression, correct me if I'm wrong, that their economic policies have never been as populist as the Danish People's Party or the Party for Freedom. I thought they were more anti-tax, pro-business, owing to their origin as a semi-legitimate liberal party.

It's a very, very strange mix of pro-business, pro-welfare state cuts policies and handouts to certain groups of people (literally handouts, former leader Haider used to, as Governor of Carinthia, give 500€ in cash to people upon turning 18, for example). During Haider's times they gravitated more towards a populist policy also in theory, but since then have turned back to their liberal, pro-business roots. It's sort of a "preach water, drink wine" situation, as they claim to be a party that's in favour of the welfare state, but they routinely vote for every cut and simply just economically liberal bill.

I need to ask, is this true?

https://www.wochenblick.at/steyr-asyl-familie-bekam-5-118-euro-pro-monat/

Asylum family gets 5000 Euro/month

If it's true I dont get how Vdb could make up the money he would throw away like this by making contracts like the current president. That just would make up <5% of the money the taxpayers pay out to refugees..

The fact that this only appeared in a very FPÖ-near new newspaper whose money-givers apparently (?) even have connections with the Kremlin and definitely with some right-wing Burschenschaften, and nowhere else should answer your question. (Unless you're one of these "Lügenpresse!!1!1!1!" types, which I shall hope not)

It is true that a family with 8 children could theoretically receive a relatively large sum in Mindestsicherung + child benefits, maybe even up to 2k (just a guess, I really have no clue - single persons in OÖ get about 800€, a couple 1200€ with 150€ per child, but less from the fourth child on - that in quick calculation brings me to 2000 if we say 70€/child from child #4 on), but 5.000? If they claim such stuff they should at least use more realistic numbers.

[Cranberry]

If we take this Afghan family for an example - two of these kids are disabled, that's why they get so much (there's a sort of special child benefit for disabled kids). Also, don't call it abuse when it is all totally legal - they are not allowed to work, so obviously they will get Mindestsicherung. I guess the most simple solution to this is to allow them access to the labour market as soon as they get a permit to stay in Austria, so even when not having been granted asylum? What speaks against that?

[Cranberry]

Point is they shouldn't be in Austria in the first place. Europe can't take care of all the handicapped people around the world.

Aha, now there we are at the real issue behind this - this was far swifter than I expected. "Bad bad people cashing off while good good Europeans have to pay" is after all just a nice way to say "me no want bad bad brown people".

[Cranberry]

You are comparing apples to oranges here - people from Syria and Afghanistan are war refugees,  "white Swedes" and "liberal Americans" clearly are not. Of course you can now say "I'd voice the same concerns" when we both know that such a scenario will never happen.

But good, let's get the "racial lense" out of the way. An easy solution to this: give refugees access to the labour market as soon as they get (at least a temporal) permit to stay in the country. They find a job, they no longer get Mindestsicherung and instead actively pay into the system. Problem solved? Now why is it that the right shouts, and apologise my usage of German here but that fits just so well, Zeter und Mordio when anything of the like is proposed?

[Cranberry]

Basically, it's that Hofer invented a story about him witnessing some terrorist attack immediately next to him, and the Israeli police denied any knowledge of any attack in that respective time period - this comes a day after a renowned ORF journalist pressed Hofer on claiming he was the first FPÖ-MP to be officially received at the Knesset, when neither ther Knesset nor the Austrian Embassy in Jerusalem, nor even Hofer's co-traveler's, some Viennese councillor or whatever, press secretray confirmed any of that.

Very strange all together.

[Cranberry]

^ Exactly. There is a huge difference between "a woman was shot down right next to me, it was so very dangerous" and a non-lethal incident happening somewhere in their vicinity resulting in them not being allowed to exit a parking space, which is (apparently?) what really happened. He did lie, he did lie a great deal, maybe to make up some piteous story or whatever, it doesn't really matter - the point is he lied, which poises a far greater question - what else did/does he lie about. This is a serious issue that should be talked about.

Secondly, you claiming "the ORF deliberately went to Israel" - the ORF in all likelihood has a bureau in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem or wherever, so it probably was a very small matter to contact the police chief of, was it Jerusalem or even a representative of the Israeli police leadership? The fact that an official representative of the Israeli police officially reported that there was no such deadly incident at the Temple Mountain at the respective time period should be worrying - the sad thing is I can already hear the "Lügenkresse!!1!!1!" (a Austrian/German pun on "Lügenpresse" ("lying press") which is a Nazi-term now used by the usual suspects whenever the mainstream media reports on certain things they don't like, and "Kresse" which means "cress") cries.

Thirdly, to this whole Knesset thing again - no one claims Hofer wasn't there. Heck, for all I care he could have been dancing naked in the Lok Sabha and no one would either care nor not believe him. The whole point is that he was repeatedly claiming it was an "official" visit, which it just simply was not. We don't know if he met with the then Vice Speaker of the Knesset, and frankly, that's not the issue - if he says he so, well he will have done so, I nor anyone else really cares. The fact that it was completely hidden from the public is proof enough that it was not an official visit - and trust me, a guy that wore a f-ing cornflower (in the 30ies the sign of the then prohibited Nazi party in Austria) won't get one from Israel so quick. The point remains again from above - he lied about that.

What we get from that is more and more the picture of a compulsive liar...

[Cranberry]

Plus, the Knesset visit might not have been "official", but it's as "official" as it can get for the FPÖ delegation that was there. Remember that there's still the FPÖ boycott in place by the "official Israel", so a secret meeting with the Vice-President of the Knesset from Likud can be seen as "official" ... Of course, both sides probably had an agreement to keep it secret until Hofer is in fact President and ties can be re-established between Likud and the FPÖ on an official basis.

The thing is, it just wasn't official, and he can't just go around and claim it was and expect that no one will claim it for the bulls-it that it is. As you say - there is a boycott in place from the official Israel, so he just can't spin it that way. It's not okay to play this down like this, when it is obvious that he was lying. That's it. Hofer is not just an unsympathetic, sleezy tool of Kickl and all those other pieces of s-it, he is a lying a-hole on top of that.

Gosh, how stupid could this f-ing country be if we seriously elect him...

[Cranberry]

Hello friends I have a few questions for your fine thread:

What time do the polls close - and how quickly do they report?

Polls close any time until 5pm, but only the big cities leave their polls open that long. So by that time you will have a great big chunk of municipalities already having reported all their votes (safe the ones by mail), especially in the west and in small towns, where polling stations can be closed starting at, I don't know, 11am in some extreme cases, or 1pm in the whole state of Vorarlberg.

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Austria does not report election results the way the US does - instead of reporting results real-time when counted, we have a combination of some exit polls, calculations with last time's results (not this time, obviously, but usually in federal or state elections) and the already counted precinct and municipality-results being projected onto the nation as a whole respective to their usual voting trends - this is released at 5pm, and those numbers are usually quite spot-on with little margin of error. However, given that this is a highly unusual election in a situation that has never happened before in Austrian history, there might well be bigger uncertainties than usual once those numbers come in, and if the margin is slim for any candidate, it might even be until Monday evening, when the postal votes are counted, that our new President is known (that obviously the most extreme case; precinct voting should be counted by 7-9pm-ish at the latest; and if the race is not close but a clear trend is emerging, we will know at 5pm already)

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Honestly, no one really has a clue. I guess I'm more inclined to believe that Hofer will win, but really, anything could happen.

[Cranberry]

^ http://orf.at/wahl/bp16/

That is better than expected.

VdB winning Vorarlberg, ORF says also Tyrol (YAYYYYYYYY!!!) and OÖ.

[Cranberry]

47 : 53 against VDB in Tyrol

With Innsbruck (1/5th of the population) not counted, and Innsbruck is one of the strongest Green / VdB cities in the country - meaning he probably will win Tyrol.

[Cranberry]

Final state results will probably be:

Vbg, Tyrol, Vienna, OÖ for VdB
Salzburg, NÖ, Carinthia, Styria, Bgld for Hofer

Margins in Vienna, Ibk, Graz and Linz will probably decide it in the end
-

I hate my village - 56% Hofer, when all the municipalities around it voted 50-55% VdB

[Cranberry]

@ Unimog, ORF has no Linz results yet - where are you getting that?

[Cranberry]

YES! Let's hope it stays that way...

[Cranberry]

The hochrechnung on the Ministry site has Hofer at 52.8%.

ORF now has VdB at 50.1!!!

Ministry won't have predictions for postal ballots included, and neither have the "official" results of the state Govs...

Which means even though Tyrol and OÖ are still Hofer there, that will probably change once they are counted...

[Cranberry]

The thing behind this is that you can order, either by mail or via the internet, your Wahlkarte (translated probably best as "ballot"), which you can then either send to your local election authority, which is in the district town, and which is counted tomorrow (so a proper postal ballot); or you could possibly also take the Wahlkarte into your precinct to vote. Statistics are so far only available of those that are requested, tomorrow with the counting then also of those which have in fact been sent in. There is afaik however no way some dude could already now know how many were taken into precincts, as those are not tallied or treated separately.

In fact, if we look at comparison numbers from last elections, 200k of 900k, so 22%, seems extremely unlikely. In the first round, 640k were requested and 540k were sent in - that's 84%, so 16% not sent in - this also includes ones that did not vote at all, got lost etc. which means that we can assume maybe 12% or so went to vote in the precinct. I don't really suspect that this number would have magically doubled now. Secondly, if I already have ordered a postal ballot, I usually don't go to vote in the precinct then when I can do so now from the comforts of my home. Sure, a few people might do that, but I doubt that it's 200.000.

[Cranberry]

^ Postal ballots are not counted until tomorrow, so relax, sit back, there's no way to know the end result yet.