The Survivor

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think you accidentally switched the D.C. results with the delaware results. Cruz getting 38% in D.C. would mean an absolute republican tidal wave elsewhere in the country....

[Senator Cris]

I think you accidentally switched the D.C. results with the delaware results. Cruz getting 38% in D.C. would mean an absolute republican tidal wave elsewhere in the country....

Yes. Sorry

[Senator Cris]

Election Night 2016

It's now 9 PM and the poll have closed in 13 states and we are ready to make projections.

We cannot make a projection in the states of Arizona and Colorado. Both states were expected to be close and that races are now too close to call.

Colorado - 5% reported
Hillary Clinton 51,1%
Ted Cruz 47,5%

Arizona - 2% reported
Hillary Clinton 49,6%
Ted Cruz 49,3%

For Hillary Clinton we can project the states of New York and its 29 electoral votes, Michigan and its 16 electoral votes, Wisconsin and its 10 electoral votes, Minnesota and its 10 electoral votes and the state of New Mexico with its 5 electoral votes.

New York
✔ Hillary Clinton 67,5%
Ted Cruz 32%

Michigan
✔ Hillary Clinton 56,8%
Ted Cruz 41,7%

Wisconsin
✔ Hillary Clinton 54,9%
Ted Cruz 43,4%

Minnesota
✔ Hillary Clinton 55,7%
Ted Cruz 42,4%

New Mexico
✔ Hillary Clinton 55,8%
Ted Cruz 40,3%

For Ted Cruz we can project his home state of Texas and its 38 electoral votes, Louisiana with its 8 electoral votes, Kansas and its 6 electoral vote, 4 electoral votes of Nebraska, South Dakota and its 3 electoral vote and 3 electoral votes of Wyoming.

Texas
✔ Ted Cruz 56,4%
Hillary Clinton 42,8%

Louisiana
✔ Ted Cruz 54,7%
Hillary Clinton 43,8%

Kansas
✔ Ted Cruz 56,7%
Hillary Clinton 41,1%

Nebraska
✔ Ted Cruz 56,5%
Hillary Clinton 41,7%

South Dakota
✔ Ted Cruz 55%
Hillary Clinton 40,7%

Wyoming
✔ Ted Cruz 63,7%
Hillary Clinton 33,6%

Take a look at this. This is the electoral map. Right now, Hillary Clinton has 233. Ted Cruz has 124. Now, Hillary Clinton needs only 37 electoral votes to win the presidency.

Hillary Clinton 233 (52,9%)
Ted Cruz 124 (45,8%)

Georgia - 60% reported
Hillary Clinton 49,9%
Ted Cruz 49%

Indiana - 75% reported
Hillary Clinton 49,5%
Ted Cruz 49,2%

North Carolina - 68% reported
Hillary Clinton 50,1%
Ted Cruz 47,8%

Missouri - 27% reported
Ted Cruz 49,6%
Hillary Clinton 49,5%

SENATE

Republicans 46
Democrats 40
No Projection 4

Net: D +1

Arizona. No Projection.
Colorado. Micheal Bennet has defeated Walker Stapleton.
Kansas. Jerry Moran has defeated Paul Davis.
Louisiana. John Kennedy has defeated Jeff Landry.
New Hampshire. Kelly Ayotte has defeated Maggie Hassan.
New York. Chuck Schumer has defeated Carl Paladino.
Ohio. Rob Portman has defeated Ted Strickland.
South Dakota. John Thune has defeated Stephanie Herseth Sandlin.
Wisconsin. Russ Feingold has defeated Ron Johnson. (D +1)

Wisconsin
✔ Russ Feingold 54,5%
Ron Johnson 42,3%

Ohio
✔ Rob Portman 51,3%
Ted Strickland 47,7%

New Hampshire
✔ Kelly Ayotte 50,5%
Maggie Hassan 49,5%

GOVERNORS

North Carolina
✔ Pat McCrory 51,4%
Roy Cooper 48,6%

[Senator Cris]

Election Night 2016

It's now 10 PM and we are ready to make projections.

Also cannot make a projection in the state of Montana. Montana is a republican state, but this race was considered competitive from the start.

Montana - 5% reported
Ted Cruz 41%
Hillary Clinton 46,5%

For Hillary Clinton we can project the states of Iowa and its 6 electoral votes and the 6 electoral votes of Nevada.

Iowa
✔ Hillary Clinton 52,9%
Ted Cruz 45,1%

Nevada
✔ Hillary Clinton 55,3%
Ted Cruz 43,3%

For Ted Cruz we can project the state of Utah and its 6 electoral votes.

Utah
✔ Ted Cruz 68%
Hillary Clinton 29,7%

Also we can now project the state of North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes and the state of Colorado with its 9 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton.

North Carolina
✔ Hillary Clinton 51%
Ted Cruz 48,2%

Colorado
✔ Hillary Clinton 53%
Ted Cruz 45,3%

Take a look at this. This is the electoral map. Right now, Hillary Clinton has 269 electoral votes. Ted Cruz has 129.

Hillary Clinton 269 (53,1%)
Ted Cruz 129 (45,6%)

SENATE

Republicans 47
Democrats 42
No Projection 4

Net: D + 2

Iowa. Chuck Grassley has defeated Bob Krause.
Nevada. Harry Reid has defeated Sharron Angle.
Pennsylvania. Joe Sestak has defeated Pat Toomey. (D + 1)
Utah. No Projection.

Pennsylvania
✔ Joe Sestak 51,2%
Pat Toomey 48,8%

GOVERNORS

Utah. Gary Herbert has won uncontested.

[Senator Cris]

Presidential Election - Final Results

✔ Hillary Clinton 396 (54,1%)
Ted Cruz 142 (44,6%)

Closest races

Indiana
✔ Hillary Clinton 49,4%
Ted Cruz 49,3%

Georgia
✔ Hillary Clinton 50,1%
Ted Cruz 49,3%

Missouri
✔ Hillary Clinton 49,8%
Ted Cruz 49,2%

Nebraska 2nd District
✔ Hillary Clinton 49,9%
Ted Cruz 49%

Senate Elections - Final Results

✔ Republicans 51
Democrats 49

Closest races

Illinois
✔ Mark Kirk 49,355%
Tammy Duckworth 49,352%

Utah
✔ Jim Mathenson 49,6%
Mike Lee 49,4%

Arizona
✔ Richard Carmona 50,1%
J.D Hayworth 48,9%

Florida
✔ Patrick Murphy 48,8%
Marco Rubio 48%

[Mister Mets]

I think the ramifications of this scenario (Hillary wins in a landslide with big congressional gains) are more interesting than the election so far.

I don't mind that as a criticism. I'm curious about what you think will happen next.

[Senator Cris]

I think the ramifications of this scenario (Hillary wins in a landslide with big congressional gains) are more interesting than the election so far.

I don't mind that as a criticism. I'm curious about what you think will happen next.

Yes... you are right

[Senator Cris]

What happens now in the GOP?



The Republican Party is now shocked about the election results. Hillary Clinton won the election in a landslide. She won in republican states as Missouri, Indiana, Georgia and Arizona.
The Republicans have risked to lose the Senate, but they have maintained it thanks to the surprising victory of Senator Mark Kirk in Illinois, a democratic state. And now the debate about the future of the Republican Party is open and the GOP is broken.

Cruz: the fight continue.



"We lost a battle, but we haven't lost the war. The fight continue. The fight for the constitution, the fight for our conservative values won't be stopped by anyone!"

Kirk: It's time for a change.



"It's time for a change in our party. I won my Senate race because I moved away the extremism of Senator Cruz, that isn't right for Illinois and for America. But now it's time for a real change and I will work on this, with a lot of Senators, Governors, that want to win again and to make our message clear."

Senators, Governors sign document for a new GOP.

Senators: Murkwoski (R-AK), Sullivan (R-AK), Flake (R-AZ), Gardner (R-CO), Perdue (R-GA), Kirk (R-IL), Coats (R-IN), Grassley (R-IA), Collins (R-ME), Cochran (R-MS), Daines (R-MT), Brown (R-NH), Ayotte (R-NH), Burr (R-NC), Tillis (R-NC), Portman (R-OH), Lankford (R-OK), Sasse (R-NE), Graham (R-SC), Thune (R-SD), Rounds (R-SD), Alexander (R-TN), Hatch (R-UT), Gillespie (R-VA), Capito (R-WV).
Governors: Parnell (R-AK), Hutchinson (R-AR), Foley (R-CT), Scott (R-FL), Rauner (R-IL), Branstad (R-IA), LePage (R-ME), Hogan (R-MD), Baker (R-MA), Snyder (R-MI), Sandoval (R-NV), Martinez (R-NM), McCrory (R-NC), Kasich (R-OH), Fung (R-RI), Walker (R-WI).

Do you approve of Senator Kirk's initiative?

Among Republicans
Yes 56%
No 35%
Undecided 9%

Among Independents
Yes 60%
No 25%
Undecided 15%

Hillary Clinton Approval Rating
Approve 65%
Disapprove 30%

2020 Republican Primary Poll (Hypotetical)
Scott Walker 16%
Rand Paul 14%
Mark Kirk 13%
Nikki Haley 9%
Chris Christie 5%
John Kasich 4%
Mike Pence 3%
Rob Portman 3%
Ted Cruz 2%
Kelly Ayotte 2%
Marco Rubio 1%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Undecided/Others 26%

[Free Bird]

Im gonna call foul on the senate races. Popular as he is, Matheson isn't winning statewide, and Rubio doesn't lose.

[rpryor03]

I feel that Chris Christie would join with the Kirk Document.

[Enderman]

Aw screw it, Kirk for President!

[Senator Cris]

I feel that Chris Christie would join with the Kirk Document.

Yes, but he isn't Governor in my TL. But he joined the Kirk Document, as Bush, Romney and a lot of Representatives.

[Senator Cris]

2017 Elections.

In the Ohio Senate Special Election for the Vice President Brown's seat, Governor John Kasich won the race against Congressman Tim Ryan. Initially the race was considered very competitive, but at the end Kasich won the seat easily, thanks to his popularity. This is a Republican pickup. Now, the Republicans have a 52-48 majority in the United States Senate.

Ohio
✔ (+) John Kasich 52,7%
Tim Ryan 46,8%

In the New Jersey gubernatorial election, former Governor Kim Guadagno, that succeded Chris Christie in 2016 after his resignation and that was defeated in the Special Election by Congressman Frank Pallone by a 55-45 margin, has won the governorship in a very close race against the incumbent Governor. Republican pickup.

New Jersey
✔ (+) Kim Guadagno 49,9%
* Frank Pallone 49,3%

In the state of Virginia, incumbent Governor Terry McAuliffe is term-limited and former Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling has defeated the democrat Attorney General Mark Herring in a close race. This is another Republican pickup.

Virginia
✔ (+) Bill Bolling 49,7%
Mark Herring 48,5%

2020 Republican Primary Poll (Hypotetical)
Scott Walker 18%
Mark Kirk 15%
Rand Paul 13%
Nikki Haley 11%
Chris Christie 6%
John Kasich 6%
Kelly Ayotte 2%
Mike Pence 1%
Rob Portman 1%
Ted Cruz 1%
Marco Rubio 1%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Undecided/Others 24%

[tmthforu94]

You mean 2020 GOP Primary Poll, not 2016.

While I agree with above comments that I highly doubt Matheson could pull off a win, this is really good and I'm looking forward to seeing where you take it!

[Senator Cris]

Senate Ratings

Without seats up for grabs.

Republicans 43
Democrats 24

With Safe/Likely/Lean seats.

Republicans 56
Democrats 35

Competitive races:

Connecticut. Chris Murphy (D, *) vs. John McKinney (R) - Rating: Toss-Up

PPP - Murphy 49% McKinney 48%
Rasmussen - McKinney 47% Murphy 45%
Marist - Murphy 49% McKinney 46%

Florida. Bill Nelson (D, *) vs. Marco Rubio (R) - Rating: Toss-Up

PPP - Nelson 49% Rubio 49%
Rasmussen - Rubio 50% Nelson 47%
Marist - Rubio 48% Nelson 48%

Indiana. Joe Donnelly (D, *) vs. Mitch Daniels (R) - Rating: Lean R

PPP - Daniels 49% Donnelly 45%
Rasmussen - Daniels 47% Donnelly 43%
Marist - Daniels 48%% Donnelly 45%

Maine. Angus King (I, *) vs. Paul LePage (R) - Rating: Lean I

PPP - King 50% LePage 46%
Rasmussen - King 52% LePage 45%
Marist - King 48% LePage 47%

Michigan. Debbie Stabenow (D, *) vs. Rick Snyder (R) - Rating: Toss-Up

PPP - Stabenow 48% Snyder 48%
Rasmussen - Snyder 49% Stabenow 46%
Marist - Stabenow 48% Snyder 46%

Montana. Jon Tester (D, *) vs. Marc Racicot (R) - Rating: Toss-Up

PPP - Tester 48% Racicot 46%
Rasmussen - Tester 47% Racicot 47%
Marist - Racicot 46% Tester 45%

New Jersey. Bob Menendez (D, *) vs. Chris Christie (R) - Rating: Toss-Up

PPP - Menendez 48% Christie 46%
Rasmussen - Christie 50% Menendez 48%
Marist - Menendez 50% Christie 49%

North Dakota. Heidi Heitkamp (D, *) vs. Kevin Cramer (R) - Rating: Lean R

PPP - Cramer 51% Heitkamp 48%
Rasmussen - Cramer 49% Heitkamp 45%
Marist - Cramer 47% Heitkamp 43%

Pennsylvania. Bob Casey (D, *) vs. Pat Toomey (R) - Rating: Toss-Up

PPP - Toomey 50% Casey 49%
Rasmussen - Toomey 49% Casey 46%
Marist - Casey 49% Toomey 45%

Washington. Maria Cantwell (D, *) vs. Rob McKenna (R) - Rating: Toss-Up

PPP - Cantwell 49% McKenna 47%
Rasmussen - McKenna 47% Cantwell 45%
Marist - Cantwell 50% McKenna 49%

Wisconsin. Tammy Baldwin (D, *) vs. Scott Walker (R) - Rating: Toss-Up

PPP - Baldwin 49% Walker 47%
Rasmussen - Walker 46% Baldwin 45%
Marist - Walker 50% Baldwin 46%

[MATTROSE94]

What are the Gubernatorial ratings?

[Senator Cris]

What are the Gubernatorial ratings?

At the moment I have only competitive races.

Colorado - Lean R - Beauprez (R, *) vs. Perlmutter (D)
Minnesota - Toss-Up - Dayton (D, *) vs. McFadden (R)
Connecticut - Lean R - Foley (R, *) vs. Wyman (D)
Pennsylvania - Toss-Up - Wolf (D, *) vs. Murphy (R)
Florida - Toss-Up - Putman (R) vs. Dyer (D)
Georgia - Lean R - Kingston (R) vs. Nunn (D)
Idaho - Toss-Up - Otter (R, *) vs. Balukoff (D)
Michigan - Lean R - Schuette (R) vs. Hackel (D)
New Mexico - Lean R - Wilson (R) vs. King (D)
Illinois - Toss-Up - Rauner (R, *) vs. Madigan (D)
New Hampshire - Lean D - Shea Porter (D, *) vs. Havenstein (R)
Maine - Safe D - Michaud (D) vs. Cutler (I)

Remaining races are safe for the incumbents or for the Governor's party if is retiring or term-limited.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What are the Gubernatorial ratings?

At the moment I have only competitive races.

Colorado - Lean R - Beauprez (R, *) vs. Perlmutter (D)
Minnesota - Toss-Up - Dayton (D, *) vs. McFadden (R)
Connecticut - Lean R - Foley (R, *) vs. Wyman (D)
Pennsylvania - Toss-Up - Wolf (D, *) vs. Murphy (R)
Florida - Toss-Up - Putman (R) vs. Dyer (D)
Georgia - Lean R - Kingston (R) vs. Nunn (D)
Idaho - Toss-Up - Otter (R, *) vs. Balukoff (D)
Michigan - Lean R - Schuette (R) vs. Hackel (D)
New Mexico - Lean R - Wilson (R) vs. King (D)
Illinois - Toss-Up - Rauner (R, *) vs. Madigan (D)
New Hampshire - Lean D - Shea Porter (D, *) vs. Havenstein (R)
Maine - Safe D - Michaud (D) vs. Cutler (I)

Remaining races are safe for the incumbents or for the Governor's party if is retiring or term-limited.

Uh, McFadden is a weakling, Dayton would crush him, even in a midterm. He couldn't even get within 10 points of Franken in RL 2014.

And Idaho wouldn't even consider electing Baulkoff (or any democrat) as governor in a midterm.

[Senator Cris]

Election Night 2018

Republicans 43
Democrats 24

"Welcome to the live coverage of 2018 Midterm Election. No doubts on which party will control the Senate: the Republican Party will still be the majority, but the real question tonight is: will the Republicans win 60 or more Senate seats? Stay tuned with us for the results.
It's now 7 PM on eastern time. The polls are closing in some states and we can make the following projections."

SENATE

INDIANA - No Projection (Sen. Joe Donnelly vs. Mitch Daniels)
VERMONT - Sen. Bernie Sanders has defeated Scott Milne.
VIRGINIA - No Projection (Sen. Tim Kaine vs. Eric Cantor)

Republicans 43
Democrats 25

GOVERNORS

GEORGIA - No Projection (Jack Kingston vs. Michelle Nunn)
SOUTH CAROLINA - Henry McMaster has defeated Harry L. Ott, Jr.
VERMONT - Peter Shumlin won uncontested.

EXIT POLLS

IN-Sen: Daniels 49% Donnelly 46%
VA-Sen: Kaine 52% Cantor 45%
GA-Gov: Kingston 53% Nunn 46%

[tmthforu94]

Looking good!

[Senator Cris]

Election Night 2018

SENATE

OHIO - Sen. John Kasich has defeated P.G. Sittenfeld
WEST VIRGINIA - David McKinley has defeated Carte Goodwin (Pick-Up)

Republicans 45
Democrats 25

GOVERNORS

OHIO - Mary Taylor has defeated Ed Fitzgerald