Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Hammy]

White voters  love Abrams. She is not ignoring them. She is simply acknowledging that the black base is the heart and soul of the party.

That we are still pretending that she is unpalatable to white voters after her decisive victory in North Georgia and the North Atlanta suburbs is hilarious.

Evans had NO GROUND GAME. And spent the last few weeks of her campaign blanketing the airwaves with mistruths and slamming Abrams in her stump speeches. Just LOL at the notion continuing that Evans would be a better GE candidate. She would have motivated no one and done nothing to GOTV.

In addition, and I know I'm not speaking for all the voters, but among my family (all white , mostly women), none said they'd bother voting if Evans had won.

[Suburbia]

I don't think that either Evans or Abrams would win in November.

Abrams is unelectable in November because of gun control. Yes, liberal voters are moving into the affluent Atlanta suburbs but it may not be enough to win in November.

Moderate voters in southern Georgia and western Georgia won't budge with the gun control.

Abrams vs. Cagle/Kemp is Tossup/Tilt R.

[Bacon King]

Abrams is unelectable in November because of gun control. Yes, liberal voters are moving into the affluent Atlanta suburbs but it may not be enough to win in November.

Moderate voters in southern Georgia and western Georgia won't budge with the gun control.

even if this is true it still means John "endorsed by the NRA" "my grandpappy used this gun ta stop a lynchin" Barrow easily would win statewide

[Bacon King]

for those who don't know what I'm talking about this is the campaign ad that singehandedly won John Barrow's reelection in 2012: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvR5qTUOTuY

I'm not just saying that either, I can name twenty members of my extended family who voted for John Barrow alongside their vote for Mitt Romney because that ad won them over

[YE]

Abrams is unelectable in November because of gun control. Yes, liberal voters are moving into the affluent Atlanta suburbs but it may not be enough to win in November.

Moderate voters in southern Georgia and western Georgia won't budge with the gun control.

even if this is true it still means John "endorsed by the NRA" "my grandpappy used this gun ta stop a lynchin" Barrow easily would win statewide

Yeah, Abrams driving up black turnout gives Barrow an excellent chance

This is the biggest positive side to an Abrams nominee honestly.

[Suburbia]

Gun confiscation isn't popular in the South....

If Abrams talks about jobs, healthcare and other issues, she wins 50-46.

[YE]

Has Abrams actually came out in favor of gun confiscation? Or is bronz bsing like I think he is?

[Gass3268]

Vote differential down to 87,653 R-D

[henster]

I think Abrams talking about scrubbing Stone Mountain will hurt her more than gun control. I saw how Northam really retreaded from the confederate monuments issue during the campaign. She has many flaws, the debt she has being a glaring one, idk how voters will respond to a candidate running to manage the state budget being $200K in debt.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The DeKalb results look a bit fishy to me. I think they are underreporting dem votes / overreporting GOP votes. NYT got Cherokee county totally wrong so it wouldn't surprise me if they messed up here.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Also, are dems outvoting repubs in GA-06? It looks pretty close to me.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think Abrams talking about scrubbing Stone Mountain will hurt her more than gun control. I saw how Northam really retreaded from the confederate monuments issue during the campaign. She has many flaws, the debt she has being a glaring one, idk how voters will respond to a candidate running to manage the state budget being $200K in debt.

She literally said that once. Almost a year ago. You’re reaching.

And Nathan Deal was a million dollars in debt but OK. LOL.

[Sestak]

Are there any substantive differences in the GOP candidates? Or is it just a Rokita/Messer-style Macho-Off (TM)?

[IceSpear]

I think Abrams talking about scrubbing Stone Mountain will hurt her more than gun control. I saw how Northam really retreaded from the confederate monuments issue during the campaign. She has many flaws, the debt she has being a glaring one, idk how voters will respond to a candidate running to manage the state budget being $200K in debt.

She literally said that once. Almost a year ago. You’re reaching.

And Nathan Deal was a million dollars in debt but OK. LOL.

Yeah but he earned that debt, unlike freeloader welfare queens like Stacey Abrams.

[henster]

I think Abrams talking about scrubbing Stone Mountain will hurt her more than gun control. I saw how Northam really retreaded from the confederate monuments issue during the campaign. She has many flaws, the debt she has being a glaring one, idk how voters will respond to a candidate running to manage the state budget being $200K in debt.

She literally said that once. Almost a year ago. You’re reaching.

And Nathan Deal was a million dollars in debt but OK. LOL.

Said it once? That's all it takes, you know the GOP isn't going to let that go, they are going to remind every white voter that she is going to 'change our history/heritage blah blah bah'.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think Abrams talking about scrubbing Stone Mountain will hurt her more than gun control. I saw how Northam really retreaded from the confederate monuments issue during the campaign. She has many flaws, the debt she has being a glaring one, idk how voters will respond to a candidate running to manage the state budget being $200K in debt.

She literally said that once. Almost a year ago. You’re reaching.

And Nathan Deal was a million dollars in debt but OK. LOL.

Said it once? That's all it takes, you know the GOP isn't going to let that go, they are going to remind every white voter that she is going to 'change our history/heritage blah blah bah'.

I highly doubt Revisionist Confederates were lining up behind Abrams either way. I’m going to let her continue running the campaign she wants. She’s already exceeded expectations once. Let’s keep it going into November.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Are there any substantive differences in the GOP candidates? Or is it just a Rokita/Messer-style Macho-Off (TM)?

Kemp is a touch loonier and poorer.

[Rookie Yinzer]

LOL at Evans still managing to win Glascock County. That place has an extreme aversion to black candidates.

[Podgy the Bear]

White voters  love Abrams. She is not ignoring them. She is simply acknowledging that the black base is the heart and soul of the party.

That we are still pretending that she is unpalatable to white voters after her decisive victory in North Georgia and the North Atlanta suburbs is hilarious.

When you talk about her decisive victory in North Georgia--take a look at Fannin County (Blue Ridge) which she won 286 to 180.  And then look at the Republican vote there--close to 2900 (and I am sure that hardly any of these people will not vote Republican in November).  Yes, there are progressive voters in this part of the state--but very few.  And that's about it for the Democratic white vote here--it's all moved to the Republicans.

Abrams will not win in November.  There's too much baggage, and her message will not resonate in most of the state.  However, she could be very influential to get out the base and strengthen the minority vote.  This can help people like Sarah Amico and John Barrow and other downstream candidates in their races.  

[Rookie Yinzer]

So is that 87% in Peach County, Abrams’ largest margin? She campaigned heavy down there. Using Fort Valley State to turn out the vote in that community.

[Adam Griffin]

The reality is that Abrams campaigned everywhere. She personally came to BFE Whitfield County 3 times, and her campaign came twice more. Evans' last (and only) appearance to my county to my knowledge was for our county party's fundraiser in August 2017 - and this was her ancestral home turf; where she needed to run up the margins to have any chance whatsoever (and a proportionate performance elsewhere). She banked on astroturfing in the metro and it didn't work. I'm not sure she could have won even with a better grassroots effort, but she certainly had no reason to suffer a 3:1 loss given her resources other than not working for it.

Now that the primary is over, I'll speak more freely about these things. Kudos to Abrams for running one hell of a campaign and putting in the groundwork to make it happen. It definitely yielded results in the Democratic primary. The real question is whether she can break the dynamic in the general: over the past 12 years, we've lost one vote in rural GA for every vote we've gained elsewhere. While she has personally made more appearances at this point in my part of the state than any other candidate I can recall (and that gives me hope), there is a contradictory message that has been muttered within campaign circles that basically implies "we're going to win this on the backs of urban and/or minority voters".

If anything, I hope the results tonight inspire them to reassess that strategy (if it is in fact what has been guiding them) and make a play everywhere, since the votes needed for victory originating from the core constituencies of the party just aren't there to carry us to 50%+1 yet, and since she did so well across the board (even in areas where DEM turnout was almost certainly inflated by suburban white former Republicans).


As a side-note, I'm going to have some fun maps to publish soon (after the remaining counties fully report).

[Dr. Arch]

Delta R-D will end up being around 50,000.

[Alabama_Indy10]

White voters  love Abrams. She is not ignoring them. She is simply acknowledging that the black base is the heart and soul of the party.

That we are still pretending that she is unpalatable to white voters after her decisive victory in North Georgia and the North Atlanta suburbs is hilarious.

When you talk about her decisive victory in North Georgia--take a look at Fannin County (Blue Ridge) which she won 286 to 180.  And then look at the Republican vote there--close to 2900 (and I am sure that hardly any of these people will not vote Republican in November).  Yes, there are progressive voters in this part of the state--but very few.  And that's about it for the Democratic white vote here--it's all moved to the Republicans.

Abrams will not win in November.  There's too much baggage, and her message will not resonate in most of the state.  However, she could be very influential to get out the base and strengthen the minority vote.  This can help people like Sarah Amico and John Barrow and other downstream candidates in their races.  

^^^ x10

[Adam Griffin]

Wow, there must have been a huge vote dump out of Dekalb in the past 15 minutes:

GAGOV-GOP-2018: 603,391 (52.34%)
GAGOV-DEM-2018: 549,397 (47.66%)

Incredible. Even if this is partially because a metric s[inks]t-ton of the GOP stayed home, Democratic raw turnout is getting closer to doubling 2014. I haven't ran the figures yet, but ED vote might be more Democratic than EV...

[MAINEiac4434]

Jesus, did not expect the result to be that one sided. Kind of embarrassing for the lesser Stacey, imho.