which is more likely

[WalterMitty]

discuss w/maps.

[Brittain33]

Obama getting 350 means holding NC and IN or holding NC and flipping a state he lost. Romney's chances of winning are higher than that. Don't need maps.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Option 2...

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

Sadly, option 1. Romney's path to 270 is a very difficult one, the spread of urban ruin is curling around the country like a weed, and destroying and liberalizing everything in it's path. Romney will need states like VA & NC, which given the previously stated problem, will be difficult.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

option 2 265-300 max, for either candidate no 2008 scenarios.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Obama will win by a Clinton 96-esque margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

www.electionprojection.com has the map at 290 electoral votes.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

www.electionprojection.com has the map at 290 electoral votes.

are you planning on buying that domain or something?

[Lincoln Republican]

Romney      275
Obama       263

[LastVoter]

Sadly, option 1. Romney's path to 270 is a very difficult one, the spread of urban ruin is curling around the country like a weed, and destroying and liberalizing everything in it's path. Romney will need states like VA & NC, which given the previously stated problem, will be difficult.

I don't think booming VA suburbs like Arlington are urban ruin, quite the opposite actually.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Going solely by current polls, I think there's a rather good chance that Obama keeps everything from '08 except IN.

[Rooney]

Romney is running an embarrassment of a general election campaign. This could easily be because he is transitioning from a primary campaign to a general election campaign. Eight years ago (give or take) John Kerry had the same problem and he was never able to get out primary campaign mode. The major difference between Kerry and Romney (and it is not their hair or strong dedication to their political philosophy) is that Kerry, as a Democrat, could rely on some trusted demographic groups such as African-Americans, women and Hispanics. These are not groups that Tricky Mitt can count on and thus a year long primary mode campaign will lead to him losing poorly.

If things continue as now in the Romney Camp I envision:

Obama/Biden (D): 344 EV
Romney/Portman (R): 194 EV  

So I guess I would vote for the first option. I also must add that I am not very good at political predictions so the Romney folks should be very happy I expect a terrible defeat for their man.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Romney      275
Obama       263

Wasn't Mitt supposed to win California by 4 points?

[perdedor]

Obama - 350+

Obama - 357
Romney - 181

Romney - 270

Romney - 275
Obama - 263

I'm not sure how Romney plans to flip Ohio, which getting him to 270 is contingent on. Option 1 by default.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Romney 272

switch PA for OH, or VA for 2 of NV/CO/IA, still gets you to +/=270.
It's going to be a heck of a challenge for Romney, but it's certainly possible.

Obama 350: I don't think Obama is likely to win either IN or MO this t, which would be necessary. 

I'll say a Romney win is more likely.