Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Bacon King]

House of Representatives prediction (entirely baseless)

ALP 72
Coalition 69
NXT 3
Green 2
KAP 1
independents 3

[Bacon King]

Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.

[Bacon King]

Change in 2013 Labor 2PP vote share when all non-ordinary vote types (postal, pre-poll, etc) were added:
(i.e. change in vote share between "ordinary" votes and total votes)

Petrie: +0.01
Hindmarsh: no change
Gilmore: -0.11
Herbert: -0.14
Cowan: -0.33
Dickson: -0.44
Robertson: -0.47
La Trobe: -0.59
Chisholm: -0.61
Dunkley: -0.80
Capricornia: -0.88
Forde -2.14

[Bacon King]

Could just be a bad batch, but if they continue the Liberals will probably end up gaining majority government.

is there any reason to expect this? e.g. do they count the postals in the order they receive them like in the US?

[Bacon King]

Labor's lead in the national two party count has shrunk to less than 500 votes