Cook Releases 2017 PVI Info

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Yay, now someone needs to edit Wikipedia.

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I calculated the state PVIs a while back, but I'm not sure if Cook has released them yet.

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I calculated the state PVIs a while back, but I'm not sure if Cook has released them yet.

Excuse the normal color scheme:

Thanks. I had NY as D+11, but I trust Cook got this one right.

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Biggest Shifts:
More Republican:
WV-3
IL-15
OH-6
MO-8
IN-8
MI-10
IN-6
ND-AL
MN-7
WI-7

More Democrat:
VA-8
TX-29
AZ-7
CA-46
TX-7 (still a R+7 PVI, though)
FL-27 (flips sides, from R+1 to D+5)
VA-11
GA-6 (still a R+8 PVI, though)
CA-51
FL-25 (still a R+4 PVI, though)

Interesting that the most R-moving districts were R districts that got even more R.

It's important to remember that these shifts really reflect 2008-2016 shifts, not 2012-2016.

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I was surprised at Utah, but then I remembered 2012. Same with Alaska.

The Utah PVI will presumably shift further to the left in 2020 when 2012 is out of the equation and Trump has another underwhelming (by pre-2016 standards) performance there.

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I can't help but feel like PVIs based on 2016 may not be overly useful.

Especially when they also factor in 2012. PVI is a pretty useless measure honestly.

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I can't help but feel like PVIs based on 2016 may not be overly useful.

Especially when they also factor in 2012. PVI is a pretty useless measure honestly.

It's useful for gauging an overall composite of the political landscape, but less resourceful when it comes to predicting future elections, due to its incapability of accounting for sudden shifts in the electorate. It measures what's already happened, not what's laying in wait down the road. Hence, the historical trend of the PVI index has demonstrated how Congressional House districts have been increasingly polarized over time and the number of competitive districts have dramatically evaporated over the past two decades, but its indicator of a Republican Congressional PVI advantage is only as predictive as it was when it said the same thing in the 2004 index. Didn't stop the 2006 Democratic Wave. Similarly, the 2008 index didn't reflect the 2010 midterm Republican backlash.

But a lot of people say stuff like "It's a D+5 district" as if that tells you everything.