UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Clyde1998]

Of course had Yes won, No would now doubtless be leading

Thumbs up. And, don't forget, many polls (especially YouGov polls) before the referendum also had a Yes majority.

According to the Wiki page - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014 - yes were only ahead in two polls in 2014.

[Clyde1998]

My mistake. I had thought YouGov was systemically more positive than others.

YouGov were the pollster I criticised the most throughout the entire campaign, as I felt they were under representing support for 'yes' - until the late surge near the end of the campaign [mainly as they had never predicted a Scottish election correctly with their final poll]. In hindsight, their polls seemed to be pretty accurate...

[Clyde1998]

Seeing that the Ashcroft polls are suggesting that Margaret Curran could lose her Glasgow East seat - which would be at least a 19% swing. The record swing in a general election in the UK is 21%.

EDIT: Just seen this on Twitter - don't know if it's real or not...

[Clyde1998]

You'd think that a billionaire would be able to protect opinion polls, but obviously not. Anyone is easily able to access the poll results.

Nearly every poll shows swings of over 15% to the SNP, with most showing swings of over 20% - some over 25%.

[Clyde1998]

You'd think that a billionaire would be able to protect opinion polls, but obviously not. Anyone is easily able to access the poll results.

Nearly every poll shows swings of over 15% to the SNP, with most showing swings of over 20% - some over 25%.

Can you post the link?

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/

The polls appear as images - which will show you the headline polls and the swing. The data tables are released tomorrow.

Ashcroft ask two voting intention questions - one asking how they would vote and a second asking how they plan to vote after thinking about the candidates in their consistency. It'll be very interesting to see how the two question results line up.

[Clyde1998]

Seeing that the Ashcroft polls are suggesting that Margaret Curran could lose her Glasgow East seat - which would be at least a 19% swing. The record swing in a general election in the UK is 21%.

Really? For a record swing that is spectacularly low.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._John's_East
2006: Conservative beats Liberal by 5
2008: NDP beats Liberal by 62 (Conservatives in third)

I've found a bigger swing than 21% - it seems the list I was using was a little out of date:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blaenau_Gwent_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

29.2% in 2010. You can argue that in 2005 - there's a 49% swing (but the independent didn't run the previous election).

Swings over 15% are very, very rare though in the UK - especially in Scotland (where the large swings this year are likely to happen).

[Clyde1998]

Here are the biggest swings at every general election in the UK since 1987 where the swing was between two parties who contested the previous election (and excludes by-elections)

1987: Western Isles (Lab GAIN from SNP on a swing of 19.33% from SNP to Lab)
1992: Edinburgh, Leith (Lab HOLD on a swing of 13.76% from Lab to SNP)
1997: Brent North (Lab GAIN from Con on a swing of 18.83% from Con to Lab)
2001: Kingston and Surbiton (Lib Dem HOLD on a swing of 15.92% from Con to Lib Dem)
2005: Dunbartonshire East (Lib Dem GAIN from Lab on a swing of 20.62% from Lab to Lib Dem)
2010: Blaenau Gwent (Lab GAIN from Ind on a swing of 29.17% from Ind to Lab)

So, we could see the largest swing for Scotland and there's an outside chance of the largest UK swing. Could be in quite a few seats too...

[Clyde1998]

The record swing in a general election in the UK is 21%.

Where does that figure come from? If we're using swing in the sense the media does, then Southwark & Bermondsey in 1983 would have been over 30pts, for instance. If you're talking in a strict psephological hard-ass sense (which would make no sense given the context, but whatever) then it only applies to the Labour/Tory swing (and then the postwar record it is about 21pts; Merthyr in 1970).

(Change in party 1 vote + change in party 2 vote) / 2

I have a document that had a list of largest swings in each election since the 70s (I think) - I'll check it tomorrow.

[Clyde1998]

The record swing in a general election in the UK is 21%.

Where does that figure come from? If we're using swing in the sense the media does, then Southwark & Bermondsey in 1983 would have been over 30pts, for instance. If you're talking in a strict psephological hard-ass sense (which would make no sense given the context, but whatever) then it only applies to the Labour/Tory swing (and then the postwar record it is about 21pts; Merthyr in 1970).

(Change in party 1 vote + change in party 2 vote) / 2

Anyone who knows the word 'psephological' is going to know how swing is measured, I imagine.

Just for good measure

[Clyde1998]

Why has a turnaround like this happened? I just don't get it.

It's mainly Labour Yes voters and Lib Dem 2010 voters switching to the SNP.

Labour Yes voters due to the SNP being pro-independence and Lib Dem 2010 voters due to SNP being quite close politically and they're a credible collation option now.

The seats polled leaves Edinburgh, Aberdeen and South Scotland unpolled - leading me to think these aren't the only constituency polls from Scotland before the election...

[Clyde1998]

Though these are in line with other published Scottish polls, it's worth pointing out (and regulars know what they're about to read already ) that the record of constituency opinion polling is poor. Quite possibly the overall picture is indicative,* but don't assume that you have anything like an accurate snapshot of the political mood in any individual constituency.

As an aside (and this can be read however you, whoever you are, feel like), I'll point out that many of those Labour percentages would normally be enough to win a seat and even to do so comfortably.

_{*Although there have been cases where that hasn't been so.}

Additionally, they're weighted on 2010 votes - which really shouldn't be done for Scotland polls (as people can confuse their 2010 and 2011 votes - as 40% voted Labour in 2010 and 45% voted SNP in 2011). So the 2010 weighting might be affected by Labour Westminster voters saying that they voted SNP (when they didn't in 2010, but did in 2011).

[Clyde1998]

SNP are now 5/1 to win all the Scottish seats.

Here's a hint - it won't happen.

[Clyde1998]

Current polling simulations puts Labour 50 away from the majority and Labour/SNP 2 away from a majority. Maybe Lab/SNP/PC?

Would make sense - SNP and Plaid sit as a single group in parliament at the moment. However, Labour may wish to go for supply and demand - without going into a formal collation.

[Clyde1998]

Labour won't go into Coalition/supply with the SNP.

If the Tories come out as the largest party (even if smaller than Lab+SNP+PC), Cameron stays in. I'd be pretty confident to call that a sure thing.

The possible positive, in the long term, for Labour, to come from the SNP landslide is that some of the big hitters might end up getting themselves on a list for 2016, give Scottish Labour at Holyrood the talent it's been dying for since 1999.

I think that would actually be good for the Scottish Parliament if that happened. At the moment (I know it's a long way off, but) the SNP look like their on course for another landslide. If that continues it would just become a question of whether the SNP won a majority or not, as they wouldn't have any major competition.

It might benefit Labour in all elections in Scotland if they had their big Scottish names in Scotland - as it currently seems as if the Labour MSPs are under the control of London Labour (which is unpopular in Scotland). If the larger names went to Holyrood, they'd be able to stand on their own policies (that London Labour may not support) which the people of Scotland agree with.

I'd think that Labour would have learned from the 2011 Scottish election - where they didn't put their big names on the list, where they contested consistencies. People like Murphy would have a certain seat in that case.

It'll also be interesting to see what the Lib Dem MPs in Scotland do if they lose their seats - Holyrood might get a lot stronger with the former-Lib Dem and Labour MPs...

[Clyde1998]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5XoO9RQYtY

If this is the response of Scottish Labour, then we should probably look more at their chances of losing Glasgow North East as well than their chances of regaining the lead in some of the other seats.

First of all, it is quite clearly a lie and one which can easily be shown to be just that. For example by looking at the actions and statements by Labour after the 2010 election.
But also it suggests that no matter how favourable the composition of parliament might be for Labour, they will refuse to form a government if they are not the single biggest party. I'm not really sure they thought this through.

Sadly, that is real. Which is probably part of the reason they're doing so badly...

[Clyde1998]

Speaking of large swings, we have a Survation poll of Sheffield Hallam: Lab 33 LD 23 Con 22 Green 12 UKIP 9.

Take with appropriate quantities of salt, especially the ward crossbreaks, which are hilarious, though given the methodology (no reallocation of don't knows) the headline figures tell a similar story to the other polls of the constituency (including the ICM/Oakeshott one Survation themselves publicly criticised).

Survation's previous constituency polls - before by-elections - have been pretty poor, especially when compared to the Ashcroft ones. I wouldn't read too much into this.

[Clyde1998]

Does the map still extremely favor labour???

In which part of the country? Nationally, it's very close between the Conservatives and Labour.

[Clyde1998]

In other constituency poll news, we now have one for East Belfast, conducted by LucidTalk (anyone have any idea about their track record?) for the Belfast Telegraph (article here).  Excluding don't knows and non-voters, the DUP are on 34.4% (yay, decimal points...) and Alliance on 28.7%.  Could be worse for Alliance, actually.

Full List without Don't Knows:
DUP - 34.4% (+1.6%)
Alliance - 28.7% (-8.5%)
UUP - 14.6% (-6.6% compared to Ulster Conservatives and Unionists)
PUP - 6.5% (+6.5%)
TUV - 2.8% (-2.6%)
Sinn Fein - 1.8% (-0.6%)
UKIP - 1.6% (+1.6%)
Greens - 1.5% (+1.5%)
SDLP - 0.8% (-0.3%)
Others - 7.5% (+7.5%)
Don't Know - 38.3%

I've never heard of LucidTalk.

Massive 38.3% undecided (or not voting) that could cause a major change in these results. Wouldn't be a major shock if the DUP re-gain this seat though - they'd held it since 1979 before the 2010 election.

[Clyde1998]

Please don't believe any opinion poll of party support conducted in Northern Ireland!

I'm not really - I just said I wouldn't be surprised if it happened.

Northern Ireland is tricky politically, as people will vote on religious lines rather than policy lines.

[Clyde1998]

There's usually a swing back to the status quo - usually by telling people the things that they've achieved. I don't think Clegg would want to remind people of what he's achieved though...

[Clyde1998]

There's usually a swing back to the status quo - usually by telling people the things that they've achieved. I don't think Clegg would want to remind people of what he's achieved though...

Tactical voting is one thing, but when a party leader's only ticket to reelection in the own back garden is tactical voting... well, that's really something.

It's interesting that Labour are likely to gain the seat - when they've never won the seat before and haven't finished second since 1979. However, the rest of Sheffield are held by Labour.

If there was tactical voting to get Clegg out - you'd think that people would vote for the Conservatives over Labour.



According to the Ashcroft poll (page 10): http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Sheffield-Hallam.pdf

The Lib Dem 2010 vote splits:
49% - Lib Dem
24% - Labour
10% - UKIP
10% - Green
7% - Conservative

Labour are gaining Lib Dem votes at a rate of 7:2 compare to the Conservatives.

However, using the percentages (under the 2010 vote column) - around 60% (or ~11,000) of those who didn't vote (~18,200) last time need to vote for the headline figures to be accurate. For the Lib Dems to be ahead - less than 20% (~3,500) need to vote.

Although there's probably another reason for that...
[most likely me multiplying the Lib Dem 2010 votes by the aforementioned percentages wrong]

[Clyde1998]

Survation Scotland Poll:
SNP - 45% (-1)
Lab - 28% (+2)
Con - 15% (+1)
Lib - 5% (-2)

Seems to just be margin of error noise.

[Clyde1998]

I don't remember this being posted on here - the 2015 Political Compass graph for the UK.



Compared to 2010:



Conservatives have moved right and slightly more authoritarian.
Labour slightly more liberal than they were in 2010.
Lib Dems have moved into the Right-Authoritarian box.
UKIP are more authoritarian and slightly move left.
SNP and Plaid are slightly more authoritarian.
Green are in the same position.
Scottish Socialists and Respect have moved left.

[Clyde1998]

lol, is that a joke

For which parties? I have no idea how they calculate political party positions though.

[Clyde1998]

On the issue of SNP-Labour positions:

SNP voters/supporters see themselves and their party to be left wing and Labour centre-right:


Whereas Labour voters/supporters in Scotland see themselves and their party to be left wing and the SNP as centre-left (just):


The British Election Study asked 28,000 people in their study:


Scotland sees Labour to be more right-wing than any other part of the UK. In fact Scotland sees every UK-wide party to be more right wing that anywhere else in the UK (excluding the Greens).

It's all about perception - it seems. (It would be interesting to see where people in England and Wales would put the SNP).

I'm basing this the following numbers meaning:
0.0-1.9 - Hard Left
2.0-3.9 - Left Wing
3.9-4.9 - Centre-Left
5.0-5.0 - Centre
5.1-5.9 - Centre-Right
6.0-7.9 - Right Wing
8.0-9.9 - Hard Right

Sources: Link1, Link2

I'll try to find the data tables tomorrow.