United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bad result for Remain in NewCastle
its full of students

Except that in June it isn't; they've all gone home.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Newcastle is full of middle class and large students population (Remain friendly demographics)
it shouldve been 58-42% for Remain

The students aren't there as the academic year is finished and its actually a pretty tough postindustrial city for the most part with some massive council housing projects (the Byker Wall etc).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But if the students' polling location is in Newcastle, does that mean that the students who went home didn't vote at all?

No: most students are registered to vote both at home and at their uni residence.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

'Expectations' were based off obviously dubious statistical modeling (dangerously so in the case of Newcastle). We don't really know exactly what to expect from a lot of places. I'd guess based off what we have that the result will be fairly tight, but we'll see.

Sunderland result slightly stronger for Leave than early count rumours (which will have been based off canvassing as much as anything else) but slightly weaker than later count rumours. Useless info there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, maybe terrible comparison, but could it be said that Labour Leave voters would be equivalent to the Sanders wing of the Democratic party?

More like "Reagan Democrats"

Like if the 'Reagan Democrats' had actually voted for Reagan, yeah. 'Nixon Democrats' would be a better description of these sorts of people.

None of those comparisons work because this wasn't a partisan vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

@toadmeister:

Please. Let us at least keep Toby Young out of this thread.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour are saying that a lot of their voters are voting leave to give the Conservative Government a kicking.

There was always a decent chance of that happening, particularly with older ones (many of which voted Out in 1975). I think earlier estimates were of about a third or so of Labour voters for out; seems quite plausible.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remember everyone: who wins where and by how much is irrelevant. What matters is the raw vote totals.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Whatever the result we can now say approaching half the country is going to hate the other for wrecking Britain

I don't think so. People understood that the vote was important but that doesn't mean that they bought into the passionate aggression of the core supporters of either campaigns. Suspect that most people will just be glad that this is over. Well. The vote anyway...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are the welsh valleys voting leave ?

They were the worst part of England/Wales for IN back in 1975 fwiw.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What you all need to understand is that a vote to leave doesn't mean that the UK immediately exits the EU. Oh no. Firstly this is an advisory referendum and is not legally binding and secondly the EUs own rules don't allow for anything so simple. What it means is the start of a lengthy period of negotiation and haggling the end result of which is by no means clear. The range of possibilities are rather large...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Look, granted, if we do leave there will be uncertainty, but the idea that voting to leave the EU will instantly destroy the British economy is a joke. In fact, leaving might actually be beneficial to certain sectors, ie accountancy.

Particularly as a vote to leave does not equal immediately leaving. Christ knows what will actually happen, particularly as pretty much all LEAVE Tories are still pro Single Market (!). Everyone needs to take ten or go to sleep.

I mean there's a risk of the markets throwing a wobbly with all that can then result, yes. That's a deffo possibility. But is distinct...

(such a strange event, I'm even agreeing with cassius up to a point).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No. We're out. It's done

But on what terms? What structures would we remain part of? The process is very lengthy, at least in theory.

Anyway, the failure of the Remain campaign to make anything of this has shocked me. As has the fact that they didn't seem to realise that British people often use referendums to take a pop at the government (i.e. that's why AV crashed and burned so bad).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seems like most Con-Lab marginal are going heavily leave....interesting

Not really a surprise; marginality and instability in one thing does not automatically imply it in another...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are you okay? Just checking in

I'm actually in the not typical state of being calmer about an electoral event than pretty much everyone else. It's bewildering and I think I dislike it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This looks weirdly like a French EU referendum doesn't it? Very strong centre-periphery patterns, invisible partisan ones.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Damn, ITV says this process of leaving the EU is going to take years. At least 2, probably more.

Indeed. This fact has long been known...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is impressive what Farage accomplished.  Totally unexpected.

Farage may have failed to win an MP seat half-a-dozen times, but he won the one vote that mattered, it seems.

Hmm?

Farage didn't lead the Leave campaign (they actually tried to keep him off the airwaves as much as possible as he's not popular) and didn't trigger this vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't the whole reason for the existence of this referendum the fact that Cameron saw it as an effective way to stop Tory voters from defecting to UKIP in the 2015 election?

More about party management: the Europe issue has been utterly toxic for the Tories since the 90s and the promise of a referendum if the Tories won a majority was his way of putting the genie in the bottle.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Btw, Brum voting that way should at least shut up certain racist types. Certain minorities cannot have been overwhelmingly Remain if...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You're all getting increasingly incoherent. Time for bed. And for me as well. A

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Awake already... probably head back to bed shortly but...

So is it just me or does it look like Asian heavy areas didn't vote as much in favor of Remain as one would expect. Looking at Hounslow in particular but also Harrow and Ealing and Brent to a lesser extent. Also Bradford, Leicester and Birmingham results. A breakdown of Birmingham would be nice. Is differential turnout an issue?

You are correct to observe this. And check out Luton and Slough. And Newham. And etc. Minorities in general turned out not to be a heavily Remain block at all. Suspect some Asian demos (which though?) may have been more than 50% Leave.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I am not noticing any difference between national background (Indian vs Pakistani Vs Bangladeshi) or religion. Too bad there is no exit poll.

Ward results would do but we don't even have those...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Farage in @GMB: it was a mistake for Leave to claim there'd be £350m a week for NHS after #Brexit

Hmm

Rowing back on impossible promises within five seconds of victory will not save those who made the impossible promises in the long run. Or at least it tends not to. Even the politicians who have 'won' are in the sh!t ultimately - remarkable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I mean, the very fact that the realistic PM choice for the foreseeable future includes Boris Johnson, Corbyn and Farage, by itself, should encourage people to worry about British creditworthiness. Worry a lot.

Farage is not now and never will be a realistic PM prospect even if you define realistic very generously.

John McDonnell might be. Not that I think you'd prefer that...