The absentee/early vote thread

[StatesPoll]

http://www.wnd.com/2016/09/republicans-lead-early-voting-in-florida-by-120000/

Republicans lead early voting in Florida by 120,000 votes (of 2 Million votes)
Republicans 43% | Democrats  37% | Indpendent 17.5% | Other Party 2.5%

It seems now Florida - Likely TRUMP

[StatesPoll]

MSM: Hillary won the debate! oh!!!!!!!! yea~~~~~! (orgasm)

Floridian people: Wrong!

Florda  Vote-by-Mail Request
9/23 REP 881K | DEM 760K
REP  +121K
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/09/yuge-trump-leads-early-voting-florida-120000-first-republicans-state/
↓
9/27 3PM   REP 959K | DEM 815K
REP +144K

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[StatesPoll]

Lol, you're a delight.

Noting that most ballot requests from the last 24 hours wouldn't have been processed yet and don't pretend that you have the vaguest idea what an orgasm is.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

1st debate was finished 09/26/2016 10:30PM
Florida vote-by-mail request Compiled     09/27/2016 3:39PM

[StatesPoll]

Found this

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/0a12b25e914d4e70ac85bbe3d9549406/early-votes-high-interest-buoys-clinton-key-states

I wonder where StatesPoll is?

wrong! it's not wise to compare with 2008 results because

1.  At that time, the Republicans held a solid lead in requests, 51 percent to 32 percent,
<----------- it's not a final results. where is the final results of
total absentee vote numbers; republican vs democrats?

2. in 2008 absentee ballots were only 1.85 million.(final results)
http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2012/dec/07/ken-detzner/florida-elections-chief-says-we-had-record-turnout/

3. in 2016, The deadline to request that a vote-by-mail ballot be mailed is no later than 5 p.m. on the 6th day before the election.(11/2/2016)
9/28/2016, already 2.24 million. 400k more than final results of 2008.
I guess it will surpass 3million for sure.

The Department of State’s Division of Elections is providing vote-by-mail (formerly referred to as absentee*)
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
The deadline to request that a vote-by-mail ballot be mailed is no later than 5 p.m. on the 6th day before the election.

conclusion)
It doesn't make any change of the fact: TRUMP takes the leads in Florida

[StatesPoll]

Found this

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/0a12b25e914d4e70ac85bbe3d9549406/early-votes-high-interest-buoys-clinton-key-states

I wonder where StatesPoll is?

and also I found it.

Sandiego Union Tribune, October 8th 2012.
Title: Romney looks to cut Obama's early voter advantage

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sdut-romney-looks-to-cut-obamas-early-voter-advantage-2012oct08-story.html

 Among the 29,000 voters who have cast absentee ballots in North Carolina, 54 percent are registered Republicans and 28 percent are Democrats, according to the United States Elections Project at George Mason University.

It's a small sample - more than 2.6 million people voted before Election Day in North Carolina in 2008. And these are all mail ballots, which have historically favored Republicans; in-person voting starts Oct. 18 in North Carolina. Nevertheless, Republicans are encouraged because McCain lost the state's early vote by 11 percentage points.

"North Carolina was a place that they totally caught us flat-footed in 2008," Beeson said. "They jumped out to a lead and never looked back. You don't see that happening this time - Republicans have the lead."

Florida's sample is even smaller - only 10,000 votes so far - but it too favors Republicans over Democrats, 53 percent to 32 percent. In 2008, nearly 4.6 million voters in Florida cast ballots before Election Day.

can u see 'only 10,000 votes so far'? (At early October)

 
Vote-By-Mail Request in Florida: September,29th,2016
Total nearly 2.3 Million votes.

[StatesPoll]

Did StatesPoll ever go to school? Serious question. So far this year only 1,257 people have voted. Per here.

545 Republican
470 Democrat
242 Other/Unaffiliated

hey snobby,
Because it takes time to return ballots
in the end most people would send.

Iowa 2012 (it's not florida data. but about the return rate, it would be similar)

Party    2012 Requested    2012 Returned    Return Rate
Democrat    312,834               287,935               92%
Republican    229,596               219,576               96%
No Party             198,342              181,260               91%

http://iowastartingline.com/2016/09/29/the-state-of-iowas-early-vote-and-how-it-all-works/

[StatesPoll]

It is very Clear.
Florida Absentee(Vote-by-Mail)
10/1/2016, TRUMP is doing far much better than Romney did in October,2012


Florida Absentee
Romney(October 2012): Republicans - Democrats = +12k
TRUMP(October 2016): Republicans - Democrats = +144k.  
Especially, Returned votes:  REP(1307)>>>>DEM(876)

News was written at October 16th, 2012
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/15/1144854/-Dems-well-positioned-in-Florida-outworking-Republicans-relative-to-2008

1. Florida: The Republicans lead Democrats when it comes to absentee votes cast, about 126,000 to 114,000.

so, at Mid-October,2012. Republican leads Democrat of Absentee
only +12k votes in Flordia.

2. 10/1/2016.  Florida: Vote-by-Mail (Absentee)
Provided:  Republicans: 1.024 Million | Democrats: 880K    
Republicans leads Democrats of Absentee
+144k votes in Flordia.

Returned: Republicans 1307 >>>>> Democrats  876.    (Total 2741)
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[StatesPoll]

'boring' becuz TRUMP is doing well in FL? (Especially far much better than Romney did in Mid-October 2012.)

if it was FL: Vote-By-Mail Request DEM 1.05 Million > REP 900K
FL: Returned Votes: DEM 1400 votes > REP 1000 Votes
I'm sure, you would not say 'boring'. 

[StatesPoll]

Intellectually bankrupt Statespoll comparing "ballots cast" data with ballot request data, proving once and for all that he lacks even basic reading comprehension.

You don't understand.

1. Most voters gonna vote in the end, once they requested Ballots.
2. Plus, Returned(voted) Rate, Normally Republican >>>> Democrats.
Especially in Florida even more
look Election 2014 results.
http://dos.myflorida.com/media/696917/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2014-gen.pdf

3. Mid-October, 2012 Returned(voted) : REP 44% | DEM 40%   
REP +4%
           vs
October 2nd, 2016 Returend(voted): REP 48% (1337 votes) | DEM 31.7% (883 votes)   
REP +16.3%

TRUMP is doing better +12.3% than Mitt Romney(2012).

Just admit you snobby, Now Florida = Likely TRUMP

 

[StatesPoll]

Intellectually bankrupt Statespoll comparing "ballots cast" data with ballot request data, proving once and for all that he lacks even basic reading comprehension.

You don't understand.

1. Most voters gonna vote in the end, once they requested Ballots.
2. Plus, Returned(voted) Rate, Normally Republican >>>> Democrats.
Especially in Florida even more
look Election 2014 results.
http://dos.myflorida.com/media/696917/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2014-gen.pdf

3. Mid-October, 2012 Returned(voted) : REP 44% | DEM 40%  
REP +4%
           vs
October 2nd, 2016 Returend(voted): REP 48% (1337 votes) | DEM 31.7% (883 votes)  
REP +16.3%

TRUMP is doing better +12.3% than Mitt Romney(2012).

Just admit you snobby, Now Florida = Likely TRUMP

  

You do realize domestic ballots, vast majority of absentee ballots, have not even been mailed yet (they go out this week). So far the only ballots that have returned are overseas/military. With fewer than 3,000 ballots returned (about 0.03% of expected turnout)  you can draw zero conclusions yet about Florida.  

really? Now 5296 ballots returned.(voted)

Florida: Vote-by-mail(absentee) Returned ballots(voted)
Total 5296 ballots. 10/5/2016   4:02 AM
Republican 2587 (48.84%) | Democrat 1596 (30.11%) | 3rd Party 179 (3.37%) |
 Independent 935 (17.65%)

Total requested ballots (vote-by-mail)  2,466,451 + 5296 = 2,471,741
3rd Party 59,603 + 179 = 59782.   59,782 / 2,471,741 = 2.41%

if those ballots(returend) are mostly overseas/military. how come returned(voted) 3rd party ballots (3.37%) are 1.4 time higher than total numbers of requested by 3rd party voters (2.41%)?

if those returned ballots are mostly overseas/military, 3rd party voters rate % should be lower or similar as total %

[StatesPoll]

After Palm Beach County finally updated its ballot requests, Democrats have narrowed the Republican advantage in statewide VBM ballot requests to approximately 87,600

GOP: 1,130,494 (41.9%)
Dem: 1,042,897 (38.6%)
Ind/NPA: 459,465 (17.0%)
Other: 65,689 (2.4%)

RIP Statespoll's methodically plotted calculations.

wrong.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

10/09/2016 10:04AM

FL Vote-by-Mail (Voted)
Total 28412 votes
REP 13338 (46.94%) | DEM 9659 (33.99%)

Still 12.95% ahead

Romney(October 16th 2012): Rep + 4%
TRUMP (October 9th 2012): Rep + 12.95%

News was written at October 16th, 2012
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/15/1144854/-Dems-well-positioned-in-Florida-outworking-Republicans-relative-to-2008

The Republicans lead Democrats when it comes to absentee votes cast, about 126,000 to 114,000. In percentage terms, Republicans lead Democrats 44-40 percent..  Republican +4%

[StatesPoll]

Now Florida=in TRUMP's pocket.

Florida Early Voting(in person) 10/26
2012: DEM 46% | REP 36%    D +10%
2016 Day 2(10/26): DEM 43.5%(240K) | REP 39.2%(216K)    D +4.3%

Very good for TRUMP.

DAY 2 in-person Total: 552k  10/26/2016 5:38AM

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[StatesPoll]

Now Florida=in TRUMP's pocket.

Florida Early Voting(in person) 10/26
2012: DEM 46% | REP 36%    D +10%
2016 Day 2(10/26): DEM 43.5%(240K) | REP 39.2%(216K)    D +4.3%

Very good for TRUMP.

DAY 2 in-person Total: 552k  10/26/2016 5:38AM

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

the results of Palm Beach and Orange County hasnt been included yet for the second day

after Palm Beach and Orange County included. It didn't change that much.

Florida Early Voting(in person) 10/26  10/26/2016 7:06AM

2012 in person total: DEM 46% | REP 36%    D +10%
2016 Day 2(10/26): DEM 43.86%(256.6K) | REP 38.61%(225.9K)    D +5.25%
Total 585k

Keep in mind that several counties leaning heavily Trump have not started voting early yet.
especially Pasco county.

 

[StatesPoll]

North Carolina Early Voting
Black voter shares: 30%(2012) -> 22%(10/29) Decreased by 26.6%
Hillary is finished in NC

Florida Early voting
Hillary is finished in FL

1) Vote by mails. 10/29/2016: REP +3.3% >= 2012 final results Rep +3%

2) Early voting in person. 10/28: DEM +3.34% much better than  2012 final results DEM +10%

3) Total:  3.253 Million voted.  REP 40.8% | DEM 40.1% | Ind 19.1%

REP 1.328 Million votes | DEM 1.305 Million. REP +0.7% (10/29/2016)

GOP is doing far much better than 2012. about +3.7% better.

(2012 final results of Early voting: DEM +3%.)


I. Florida Vote-By-Mail   10/29/2016 6:44AM

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Voted Ballots: 1.86 Million votes.

REP:  784K (42.15%) | DEM: 723K (38.87%) | Other 18.98%

REP: +3.28%. A bit batter than 2012.

(Vote-By-Mail 2012 final results : REP +3%)


II. Florida Early Voting In person.  10/29/2016 6:44AM
Voted(Total) : 1.393 Million votes.
REP: 543.9K (39.05%) |  DEM: 582.4K (41.81%) | Other 19.14%
DEM +2.76%
very good numbers for TRUMP.
Because in 2012 final results, it was Dem +10% (DEM 46 : REP 36)


 III. Vote-by-mail(Total Requests) in BIG 3 Dem county increae % = getting down

I’m sure GOP gonna expand leads of vote-by-mail.

Miami-Dade: 386K(10/27) -> 395K(10/29) = +2.3% in 2days (+1.15% / day)

Broward: 268K(10/27) -> 270K(10/29) = +0.74% in 2days (+0.37% / day)

Orange: 204K(10/27) ->208.3K(10/29) = +2.1% in 2days (+1.05% / day)

[StatesPoll]

Based on recent ealry voting

FL+NC+OH in TRUMP's pocket.

so TRUMP just needs 10 EV more.

WI or NV+NH or MI or PA

#Trump2016

[StatesPoll]

Based on recent ealry voting

FL+NC+OH in TRUMP's pocket.

so TRUMP just needs 10 EV more.

WI or NV+NH or MI or PA

#Trump2016

The stupid is strong with you.

Then you should show some facts instead of mumbling

[StatesPoll]

It seems the early vote in NC, FL and NV is slowly trending the way of Trump/Republicans.

And in CO (where Dems are currently way ahead, but virtually nothing is in yet) the email scandal comes at the worst possible time for Hillary because most voters will fill out their ballot this weekend and over the next week with peak mail returns in about 1 week ... and the email stuff will dominate the whole next week.

CO is interesting.

at the beginning DEM bragged D+10% BLAH BLAH BLAH     

Now it is D+3.9%
(I know it was slightlly +R in 2012)

[StatesPoll]

i can with some mental tricks understand how people could doubt FL/NC but...how in 7 hells is hard-early-voting republican nightmare NV a problem?

hahahaha

nightmare?

didn't u dem bragged D+18% in NV?

Now it is D+8% (Same as 2012 level)

don't u think it gonna be dead heat in next week?


hahahahahahahahahahahahaha    

[StatesPoll]

Is States Poll the lovechild of Donald Trump and nkpatel?

as I said already. show me some facts instead of mumbling. ok?

[StatesPoll]

Then you should show some facts instead of mumbling

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY
"Clinton has an 18 point lead in NC early voting with more than 1 million votes cast, according to our estimates"

This isn't like other years when you could just use Rep and Dem registration ID to safely infer voting leads-- a significant number of registered Republicans in both NC and Florida will be voting for Clinton, as indicated by the Upshot's model extrapolating from their polling.

Blah blah blah so what?

Dem won of NC ealry voting but lost in final results

the point is GOP is doing better than 2012

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cv7tYZXXEAAfOXT.jpg

[StatesPoll]

From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

"North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton."

wth believe that skewed poll ?

get this trhough your head.    

Black voter turnouts 26.6% decreased compare with 2012.

[StatesPoll]

Then you should show some facts instead of mumbling

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY
"Clinton has an 18 point lead in NC early voting with more than 1 million votes cast, according to our estimates"

This isn't like other years when you could just use Rep and Dem registration ID to safely infer voting leads-- a significant number of registered Republicans in both NC and Florida will be voting for Clinton, as indicated by the Upshot's model extrapolating from their polling.

Blah blah blah so what?

Dem won of NC ealry voting but lost in final results

the point is GOP is doing better than 2012

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cv7tYZXXEAAfOXT.jpg

Are they? Trump's Republican support is 10% less than Romney's and his Democratic support is virtually zero

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject Oct 28

NC Dems made up lost ground from last week of poll closures, now running -6.9% behind 2012. Reps actually running +0.3% ahead of 2012

[StatesPoll]

Florida early voting. 10/30/2016  vs  2012 final results

Summary
2012: 1) Mail: R +3% 2) In Person: D +10%
10/30/2016: 1) Mail: R +3.36% 2) In Person: D +2.6%  
Total:  3.562 Million voted.  REP 40.72% | DEM 40.07% | Ind 19.21%.  

2012 Final results: DEM +3% (DEM 43% | REP 40%)
10/30/2016: REP + 0.65%

Rep is doing better than 2012, Mail and In person both. especially In Person, Dem's leads is decreased by 7.4% (2012: 10% -> 10/30/2016: 2.6%)

Details

I. Florida Vote-By-Mail   10/30/2016 8:05AM
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Voted Ballots: 1.949 Million votes.

REP:  821.1K (42.13%) | DEM: 755.7K (38.77%) | Other 19.1%

REP: +3.36%. slightly better than 2012. (Vote-By-Mail 2012 final results : REP +3%)


II. Florida Early Voting In person.   10/29/2016 6:44AM
Voted(Total) : 1.613 Million votes.
REP: 629.6K (39.03%) |  DEM: 671.6K (41.63%) | Other 19.44%.   DEM +2.6%
very good numbers for TRUMP.
Because in 2012 final results, it was Dem +10% (DEM 46 : REP 36)

[StatesPoll]

Dan Frosch digs into the voter surge in Texas (full article, not just the graph below):




https://twitter.com/TimJHanrahan/status/792754968461713409

New Voters. Hispanic and Non Hispanic voters.
Dallas county 21% -6% = 15%
Harris county 22%-10% = 12%

Considering in rural areas of texas. less Hispanic %
So, I'd guess increase amount Hispanic voters in Texas(statewide) it would be about 10%

And based on YouGov Elecion Model, 10/29, Texas
Statewide: TRUMP 51% | Hillary 42.2%
Hispanic: Hillary 59% | TRUMP 33%.  Hillary +26%
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Texas

So, perhaps Hillary could add 10% x 26% = +2.6% more

But, seriously Red Avatars think, Hillary can flip Texas by adding 2.6% more than 2012?

[StatesPoll]

I'm hearing conflicted things about Florida. Some people are saying that Dems have the edge, and others are saying that Republicans are doing remarkably well.

Which is it?

Read again my reply above.