Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[J. J.]

Schwartz starting to step up the attacks:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/schwartz_hammers_wolf_and_corb.html#incart_river_default

She is running into some problems about releasing her tax returns.

[J. J.]

One can run for a lower office by campaigning against someone who holds a higher seat. Such as any GOP congressional candidate essentially running against Obama, or Kane running for AG by campaigning against Governor Corbett.

But one can't really reverse that dynamic. Obama can run against "Congressional Republicans", and by direct extension John Boehner and Mitch McConnell because they are the clear leaders of the GOP delegations. Obama can't really run against Louis Gohmert, Steve King, Renee Elmers, etc. though.

One reason is because there are several hundred Republican members.  In this case, there is one individual, Kane.  Schwartz has a great liability in being labeled "the next Kane."

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Not even close.  Schwartz can be depicted, strongly, as the "the next Kane."  It does energize the GOP base, and may de-energize the Democrats (we'll have to see by how much).

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It already has, in terms of her investigation of the Sandusky investigation.  There were problems for the theory that there was some type of conspiracy there before Kanegate.  Kane now looks so partisan, that any negative report will be disregarded.

I would not call it an "opening" for Corbett, but I would call it a "weakening" of the Democratic position (and a totally unnecessary one).

[J. J.]

And Wolf fires back (weakly):  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/schwartz_attacking_wolf_in_gub.html#incart_river_default

At this point I don't even know why we're talking about Schwartz's problems in a GE when she's down thirty points in the primary. Wolf is the likely nominee unless something major occurs that shifts the race to her favor and Wolf has even less to do with Kane than Schwartz does.

Right now, the two candidates with a realistic shot are Schwartz, who is on the offensive, and Wolf, the current frontrunner.

Wolf is the least damaged by Kane.

[J. J.]

And the attack are launched:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/wolf_attacked_on_his_support_o.html#incart_river_default

I still think Wolf is holding, but he's weakened with York's ex-mayor as his campaign chair.

[J. J.]

Gizzardi out of governor's race:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/pa_supreme_court_ousts_guzzard.html#incart_river_default
]
Corbett backs some medical marijuana:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/medical_marijuana_pennsylvania_1.html#incart_river_default

[J. J.]

Gizzardi out of governor's race:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/pa_supreme_court_ousts_guzzard.html#incart_river_default

Again, it's hilarious how terrified Corbett was of Guzzardi. Also very telling.

Nobody likes surprises in elections.  It was good strategy, but we will have to look at the abstention rate.

[J. J.]

Wolf 38, Schwartz 13, McCord 11, McGinty 2

http://www.politicspa.com/muhlenbergmcall-poll-wolf-38-schwartz-13/57468/

Looks like I was right Schwartz is going nowhere Wolf has this locked up.

Do you have any earlier Muhlenberg polls?

[J. J.]

Just saw the "no good answer" from McCord directed against Wolf:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFLB_eqcH78 

[J. J.]

Wolf 38, Schwartz 13, McCord 11, McGinty 2

http://www.politicspa.com/muhlenbergmcall-poll-wolf-38-schwartz-13/57468/

Looks like I was right Schwartz is going nowhere Wolf has this locked up.

Do you have any earlier Muhlenberg polls?

I found this, but it looks like they haven't updated it with any post-2012 polls o.O
http://www.muhlenberg.edu/main/aboutus/polling/surveys/pennsylvania/penn_election.html

Thanks, I saw those.  F&M will be the key.  They've polled and they are good.

[J. J.]

Rendell ethers McCord.

And McCord fires back:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/democrat_rob_mccord_fires_back.html#incart_river_default

[J. J.]

McCord endorse by Phila inquirer:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/mccord_endorsed_by_the_philade.html#incart_river_default

[J. J.]

Casey spoke out against the ad, too.

As he should. It's blatant race-baiting, and shame on the Philadelphia Inquirer for endorsing McCord after this stunt.

He's sensitive about it, personally.  His wife is African American. 

Interestingly, so is Corbett, who's grandson is biracial. 

McCord is not backing off; the ads are still running.

Wolf is getting hit with negative ads from McCord, on race, Schwartz, on selling his business and putt his employees out of their jobs, and Corbett, on his role in raising taxes.

[J. J.]

Hanger endorses Wolf, though with some reservations:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/john_hanger_says_i_will_cast_m.html#incart_m-rpt-1

[J. J.]

Wolf taking fire from Hafer (Schwartz proxy):  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/tom_wolf_barbara_hafer_women_i.html#incart_m-rpt-1

[J. J.]

We can now report that President Obama, Vice-President Biden, and every other Democratic elected official in the country have flown to Harrisburg to announce their resignation and permanent retirement from politics.  One top Democratic strategist who wished to remain anonymous said that "after the Kane scandal, everyone just collectively decided to call it a day.  I mean, given that it was basically the biggest scandal in American history and its unprecedented importance to voters throughout the country, we all sort of went 'why even bother anymore?'''  The Democratic Party is expected to wait until Friday to formally dissolve in order to give Pennsylvania Democrats time to replace their platform with a resolution declaring that Tom Corbett shall henceforth be known as "Eternal Governor and Savior of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania."  

Though I doubt if it is serious at this point, they are considering Kane's impeachment.

[J. J.]

We can now report that President Obama, Vice-President Biden, and every other Democratic elected official in the country have flown to Harrisburg to announce their resignation and permanent retirement from politics.  One top Democratic strategist who wished to remain anonymous said that "after the Kane scandal, everyone just collectively decided to call it a day.  I mean, given that it was basically the biggest scandal in American history and its unprecedented importance to voters throughout the country, we all sort of went 'why even bother anymore?'''  The Democratic Party is expected to wait until Friday to formally dissolve in order to give Pennsylvania Democrats time to replace their platform with a resolution declaring that Tom Corbett shall henceforth be known as "Eternal Governor and Savior of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania."  

Though I doubt if it is serious at this point, they are considering Kane's impeachment.

Who is "they"?

A House Committee (the House is Republican and the chair is a real right-winger).

[J. J.]

Harrisburg Patriot News just endorsed Wolf:  http://www.pennlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2014/05/voters_should_pick_tom_wolf_in.html

[J. J.]

Article on the gubernatorial race spending:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/spending_mounts_in_costly_demo.html#incart_river_default

Wolf and McCord have burnt through their war chests, with $1 million and $600 K left, respectively.

Wolf is taking a bombardment from 3 directions:

1.  Race (McCord).

2.  Management (Schwartz).

3.  Tax and Spend (Corbett, the weakest in a D primary).

We'll see if these have done any damage and how much.

[J. J.]

McCord now running attack spots on Wolf pension plans.

McCord is also rhyming:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/racial_rhetoric_reigns_at_phil.html#incart_river_default

[J. J.]

Any recent polls on the primary? It'd be interesting to see if any of the attacks are materially hurting Wolf, and/or if any of his competitors are gaining any traction.

Just now.  Wolf still with a huge lead in the F & M poll, 17 points, but that is a 9 point drop.  McCord is at 13, Schwartz at 20, which marks an improvement.  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/wolf_double-digit_lead_narrows.html#incart_river_default

Wolf, damaged, but far from destroyed.

[J. J.]

Guarantee another (independent) pollster shows a much-smaller-than-seventeen-point-lead for Wolf.

Nope, bigger:

Q. If the Democratic primary election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for: Tom Wolf, Rob McCord, Katie McGinty, or Allyson Schwartz?

50% Wolf
15% Schwartz
15% McCord
  5% McGinty

Pennsylvania Governor Democratic Primary Poll
May 12-13, 2014

http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-governor-democratic-primary-poll

F & M's Terry Madonna is possibly the best pollster for PA.  I would be shocked with Wolf winning by a 35 point margin.  I would not be a 145 point margin.

[J. J.]

If I had to make a prediction.


Wolf 43
Schwartz 30
McCord 17
McGinty 10

Slight erosion of support, but still impressive.

[J. J.]

Turnout is a bit stronger in Philadelphia.

[J. J.]

Impressive win.  Anything above 10% was good.  40% is gigantic.  Unstoppable in the General, barring a major scandal or Corbett pulling an elephant out of his hat.

[J. J.]

Op-ed piece on the Fall Election:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/tom_corbett_could_still_win_ag.html#incart_river_default

I disagree somewhat on fundraising.  Had Wolf won be less than 10 points, he might have had a problem with fundraising.  A 40 point win will attract at least some funds.

Corbett needs to point to some major legislative victory. and raise a lot of funds.