UK General Election - May 7th 2015

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A lot of negativity on here towards UKIP. However their central policy (withdrawal from the EU as the EU is on an irrevocable course towards a federal superstate which is not in the UK's interests to be a part of) has widespread support among the British public.

I'm a strong supporter of Britain remaining in the EU, but my distaste for UKIP has rather little to do with that.  It has more to do with other reactionary tendencies in the party, especially the scapegoating of immigrants and the tendency towards climate change denialism.  See also "Poujade, Pierre".

Their stance on the EU isn't too different to most Tory's position (outside of Cameron's clique at the top of the party). Although I think that's a profoundly destructive opinion, I'd be able to get past it. My problem with UKIP is that they're a racist party. End of story.

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A lot of negativity on here towards UKIP. However their central policy (withdrawal from the EU as the EU is on an irrevocable course towards a federal superstate which is not in the UK's interests to be a part of) has widespread support among the British public.

Your point being?

My point being is that there would not be such a thing as the UK Independence Party if it were not for this central issue. They may have policies that cover most other stuff but they are essentially a single issue party.

Put it another way, is everyone here comfortable with the United Kingdom becoming part of a federal European superstate at some point in the future and if so why?

Every poll shows UKIP voters more bothered about immigrants, foreigners and benefits, not necessarily the EU.

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Aren't the Greens wildly unpopular in Brighton? I would've thought Labour were in with a shout of taking it back.

For them to think they have a chance anywhere outside of Brighton Pav is, quite frankly, hilarious.

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And who knows? If Cameron and the Greens get their way, we could see "Lucasmania" after the debates.

If only the Greens were lucky enough to still have Lucas as their leader though. Natalie Bennett is a gift to her opponents.

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Ashcroft has the LibDems in 5th.

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I'm a bit surprised that there hasn't even been a leadership challenge. I realize that choosing a new leader won't solve the Liberal-Democrats' problems - but it's not as if things can get much worse for them, right?

Well that's exactly the point. Who'd wanna trigger a leadership challenge, only to come out with 20 seats in May anyway? Best bet for any leadership candidates is to wait until after the election.

Similar thing with Labour in the last parliament.

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I'm a bit surprised that there hasn't even been a leadership challenge. I realize that choosing a new leader won't solve the Liberal-Democrats' problems - but it's not as if things can get much worse for them, right?

Well that's exactly the point. Who'd wanna trigger a leadership challenge, only to come out with 20 seats in May anyway? Best bet for any leadership candidates is to wait until after the election.

Similar thing with Labour in the last parliament.

I remember an "orthodox" Lib Dem on politicalbetting.com (Yellow Submarine) talking after the 2010 election about the Clegg/Orange Book party leadership having a "Project FDP" in mind - the Lib Dems permanently in government as a market-liberal junior partner under some form of PR. That term is looking worryingly prophetic by now.

Well exactly.

That might've worked if the electorate had felt anyway included in the post-election manoeuvrings by the parties, but they didn't. I think the way the Liberal Democrats sort've think they deserve to be in government post-election (even if they do fall from 24% to, say, 8%) is quite offensive to the electorate.

The LibDem result is going to be more of a rejection than 1997 way for the Tories and definitely more than 2010 was for Labour.

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Of course the Lib Dems stubbornly defending all things EU just makes their plight worse. Listening to their spokespeople on tv it's as if the Euro crisis never happened and everything in the EU garden is currently all beautiful and rosy.

Their pro-EUness is slightly ironic as their voters (and currently ex-voters) in the West Country tend to be quite Eurosceptic.

Incidentally Iain Dale who predicted 35 Lib Dem seats at the next election in March is now predicting they'll win 28.

I'm currently predicting 25-30, but I wouldn't be shocked if they did worse than that. Going to be some very odd results across the country in May, especially so in LD seats.

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I'm a bit surprised that there hasn't even been a leadership challenge. I realize that choosing a new leader won't solve the Liberal-Democrats' problems - but it's not as if things can get much worse for them, right?

Well that's exactly the point. Who'd wanna trigger a leadership challenge, only to come out with 20 seats in May anyway? Best bet for any leadership candidates is to wait until after the election.

Similar thing with Labour in the last parliament.

I remember an "orthodox" Lib Dem on politicalbetting.com (Yellow Submarine) talking after the 2010 election about the Clegg/Orange Book party leadership having a "Project FDP" in mind - the Lib Dems permanently in government as a market-liberal junior partner under some form of PR. That term is looking worryingly prophetic by now.

Well exactly.

That might've worked if the electorate had felt anyway included in the post-election manoeuvrings by the parties, but they didn't. I think the way the Liberal Democrats sort've think they deserve to be in government post-election (even if they do fall from 24% to, say, 8%) is quite offensive to the electorate.

The LibDem result is going to be more of a rejection than 1997 way for the Tories and definitely more than 2010 was for Labour.

My recollection is that the dramatic fall in their support came after the first Osborne budget, when it became obvious to their voters what the leadership had signed up for. (Yellow Submarine, to be fair to him/her, was a "Project FDP" skeptic.)

Well their fall in the polls started on day one, mostly because many saw them as a safe option - Diet Labour. I have fond memories of #DontDoInNick trending on Twitter in the days after the election, before he entered government. I think that's part of their problem they've struggled to address and will probably never be able to.

The Cleggasm turned from a blessing into a curse. If there'd been no debates, no Clegg surge, the last four years wouldn't have been so difficult for the Libs.

For many of the voters who've left them, merely the act of selected David Cameron as Prime Minister was enough for them to leave the party forever. What must voters in seats like Barnsley, Bradford and Redcard have thought of that.

The decline, of course was accelerated with the budget, CSR and then the tuition fee protests/riots.

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The Cleggasm turned from a blessing into a curse. If there'd been no debates, no Clegg surge, the last four years wouldn't have been so difficult for the Libs.

Interesting alt-historical scenario! Before the debate, I think they were bobbing along below their 2005 score, around 16-22% depending on whom you asked. Given the Conservatives' strength and the fact that most Lib Dem seats were and are won on not-very-big majorities against the Conservatives, they might have ended up on 35-40 seats instead of 57 with the Conservatives strong enough to govern with Unionist support. If they ended up in opposition, they might have indeed bounced back to 60 seats or so. But that's conditional on something they didn't know: that Ed M would be dire and fail to mobilise opposition to the government around Labour. And it doesn't really leave them much better-off than they started anyway, unless they eventually do get into government, and then they betray one side or the other of their support anyway...

I don't think Ed would've won the leadership had the Libs not been in government. The momentum behind his campaign was, in part, a response to the LibDems entering government.

A more interesting alternative scenario is Cameron winning a small majority/going for a minority, and Nick Clegg becoming the Nigel Farage anti-establishment character.

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I think there is still a big gap for Ukip there. Lots of Ukip voters genuinely are sick of immigrants and, like their European brothers, want to do something about it. Nick Clegg wasn't going to win those votes.

Chicken or the egg. Are people saying they're sick of immigrants because UKIP's on the rise, or are UKIP on the rise because people are sick of immigrants?

Nick Clegg surged after the debates because he was the 'trendy' option. UKIP is surging now because they're the 'trendy' option. Similarly, the Greens are doing well amongst young people because they're a 'trendy' option.

Labour and the Tories are just seen as out of date and stale. If the Tories were able to get an out-and-out populist like Boris leading them, it'd help them a bit. Same goes with Labour.

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Again, 'a stereotypical LibDem voter' is very different today to what it was pre-Coalition.

They've lost a lot of their 'stereotypes' to Labour, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid it seems.

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Poor old Ed.



http://news.sky.com/story/1361710/ukip-hits-new-poll-high-after-1-7bn-eu-bill

Plot twist: election 2015 results in both major parties hitting record lows.

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The SNP as the kingmakers in a hung parliament.

Imagine.

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The SNP as the kingmakers in a hung parliament.

Imagine.

Given that the SNP would not support a Tory led government in almost any circumstances (for fear of being as unpopular as the Lib Dems currently are as well as for general ideological issues) what concessions would they want in return for supporting and sustaining a Labour government?

Well, the SNP were propped up by the Tories at Holywood, soooo...

But if they were kingmakers, I imagine they'd basically get whatever they want.

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See also: Canada.

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All these numbers are also assuming that Sturgeon isn't a flop as FM.

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Alastair Darling standing down in Edinburgh South West.

Labour people being much, much nicer about him than they would've been this time 5 years ago...

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Ashcroft has Labour at 29%, tying their 2010 result.

Hold on tight, here comes a sh**tstorm.

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Ashcroft's national polls have been so erratic as to deem them a bit pointless, although his marginal polls are helpful.

Of course, this is a psychological blow for Labour (terrible news for ed m). Although an election with the big two at 30-29 would be funny in the sense that the media narrative would be all about Labour's terrible result and not the Tory's sub-1997 result.

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Unfortunately it's likely both parties ratings will pick up once the actual campaign starts in March next year.

That'd be a first.

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Is there any consensus on whether Lord Ashcroft's polls are any good?

His national ones are very volatile and his marginal ones are the only ones of their nature. Of course, we won't know is these are any good until the election's been and gone.

His by-elections polls have been pretty mixed. Very good in Clacton, okay in Wythenshawe and Newark, terrible in Corby and Heywood.

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Alex Salmond rumoured to be eyeing up Inverness, Danny Alexander's seat.

The SNP came third on 18% here in 2010, but he'd have a good chance.

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It's not impossible that they'll give confidence when it matters, just as long as they get whatever they want, which they probably would if they add up to 326 with the Tories or Labour.

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Opinium
Con 34 (+5), Lab 33 (+1) LD 5 (-4) UKIP 18 (-1)

Think that's a low for the Libs with any firm.