France General Discussion

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LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

Oh, God, not this argument again.

Polls about a presidential 2 years before it, and especially just before an other election, shouldn't be shown more as the 'air of the time', when the fights actually begin, that's an other matter.

I don't agree often with you, but you know I fully agree with this. Polls are overrated, by me included.

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LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

Oh, God, not this argument again.

?

I've said 9 million times that being the pollster of a certain paper doesn't make one biased. OpinionWay has a much more accurate track record these days than CSA. I hate the argument that a poll for Le Figaro is 'too right-wing' and vice-versa. It isn't true, just look at their polls and compare them to others.

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LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

Oh, God, not this argument again.

?

I've said 9 million times that being the pollster of a certain paper doesn't make one biased. OpinionWay has a much more accurate track record these days than CSA. I hate the argument that a poll for Le Figaro is 'too right-wing' and vice-versa. It isn't true, just look at their polls and compare them to others.

Oh damn, it seems that nobody here has never heard about the scandal of Elysée-commissioned polls...

There's a difference between a public electoral poll commissioned by Le Figaro and an internal electoral poll commissioned by the Elysée or even the PS (yes, why, the left also commissions internals).

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LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

Oh, God, not this argument again.

?

I've said 9 million times that being the pollster of a certain paper doesn't make one biased. OpinionWay has a much more accurate track record these days than CSA. I hate the argument that a poll for Le Figaro is 'too right-wing' and vice-versa. It isn't true, just look at their polls and compare them to others.

Oh damn, it seems that nobody here has never heard about the scandal of Elysée-commissioned polls...

There's a difference between a public electoral poll commissioned by Le Figaro and an internal electoral poll commissioned by the Elysée or even the PS (yes, why, the left also commissions internals).

The Presidency is an institution, the PS is a party. Such distinction may seem trivial, but instead it changes everything ethically speaking.

Sure, but that's not my argument and nor is it my original point...

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LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

Oh, God, not this argument again.

?

I've said 9 million times that being the pollster of a certain paper doesn't make one biased. OpinionWay has a much more accurate track record these days than CSA. I hate the argument that a poll for Le Figaro is 'too right-wing' and vice-versa. It isn't true, just look at their polls and compare them to others.

Oh damn, it seems that nobody here has never heard about the scandal of Elysée-commissioned polls...

There's a difference between a public electoral poll commissioned by Le Figaro and an internal electoral poll commissioned by the Elysée or even the PS (yes, why, the left also commissions internals).

The Presidency is an institution, the PS is a party. Such distinction may seem trivial, but instead it changes everything ethically speaking.

Sure, but that's not my argument and nor is it my original point...

As for what you said, polls commissioned by the Elysée were published by the Figaro, and considered as Figaro polls : this is just what we usually call manipulation.

Seeing as there's no hope that you'll change your attitude on the question of OpinionWay/Le Figaro polls, I'll cut this short now.

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There's a difference between internal private polls and public polls. Le Figaro isn't perfect, sometimes it's rightly demonized by the left (though most of the time isn't unfairly demonized) but the fact that they commanded a public electoral poll doesn't mean that the poll is flawed or biased. I'm tired of that bs.

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There's a difference between internal private polls and public polls. Le Figaro isn't perfect, sometimes it's rightly demonized by the left (though most of the time isn't unfairly demonized) but the fact that they commanded a public electoral poll doesn't mean that the poll is flawed or biased. I'm tired of that bs.

Yup, but as I said from the beginning it has to be cited if so, like radios and papers are cited when they command it. In order that people know from where this does come, because for example, political parties are surely not masochist, if they command a poll they would choose a pollster that use to give them good figures, what we can see as a bias. People have, at least, to be aware when a political party is behind one for me, that's the slightest I would ask.

Such things, to my knowledge, are always available when polls are cited in serious legitimate media sources.

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There's a difference between internal private polls and public polls. Le Figaro isn't perfect, sometimes it's rightly demonized by the left (though most of the time isn't unfairly demonized) but the fact that they commanded a public electoral poll doesn't mean that the poll is flawed or biased. I'm tired of that bs.

Yup, but as I said from the beginning it has to be cited if so, like radios and papers are cited when they command it. In order that people know from where this does come, because for example, political parties are surely not masochist, if they command a poll they would choose a pollster that use to give them good figures, what we can see as a bias. People have, at least, to be aware when a political party is behind one for me, that's the slightest I would ask.

Such things, to my knowledge, are always available when polls are cited in serious legitimate media sources.

Except when they aren't.

cite plz

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Obviously, I wasn't talking about the Elysée polls, since that wasn't your original point, I was talking about your original point of public OpinionWay polls published in Le Figaro. When those polls are published in the media, I have yet to see times when it isn't said that they're commissioned by Le Figaro.

I'm not defending Le Figaro, even though I prefer it over Le Monde, but I'm only saying, as I've said since this debate started, that OpinionWay polls for Le Figaro may be inaccurate but they're not biased towards the right.

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French journalists are very, very stupid and useless. Calling them journalists is being nice. I know I've said it many times, but France's stock of journalist is pretty sh**t poor when compared to other countries - which, granted, aren't much better.

All national media boast their parish, their people and that sh**t. I'm fed up of, say, the CBC, getting all hyper over some apparently 'great Canadian athlete' who's nothing more than a mediocre athlete. The media is more interested by their little interests, their little news and their spin than it is my actual events around the world which merit attention. The coup in Niger will get a minute of news, but the winner of Huntsville's Biology Contest who happens to be a handicap will get a flipping feature report. This sobbing parents of a local person who died in a plane crash which claimed 250 lives will take more space than the main story, flip.[/rant]

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Didier Migaud, PS deputy from Isère (since 1988) and president of the Assembly's finance commission since 2007 (since 2007, the presidency of the  finance commission is given to the opposition) is Sarkozy's choice to succeed Philippe Séguin.

Migaud is a fabiusien, rather moderate and pragmatic, and is very popular in his constituency (50.7% for Sarkozy, 62.8% for Migaud in 2007).

The PS' choice to succeed him in the finance commission is Jérôme Cahuzac (Lot-et-Garonne). As for his seat, I'm not sure if his suppléant replaces him or if there's a by-election.

As for the Constitutional Council, Sarkozy has also opted for a leftist - although one who has been close friends with him since 2007 but who remains a major 'old' figure of the Mitterrand era - Michel Charasse (RDSE Senator from Puy-de-Dôme). For obvious reasons, I'm far from a fan. I'm sure the Puy-de-Dôme PS will be happy to be rid of him.

The two other nominations - by the 2 presidents of the chambers are, by Larcher Hubert Haenel (UMP Senator for Haut-Rhin); and by Accoyer Jacques Barrot (former European Commissioner, former UDF-UMP deputy for Haute-Loire).

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Ah, here is LO176-1 of the Code electoral dealing with this kind of stuff:

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I would assume there will be a by-election.

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Charasse is more of an old rural SFIO figure than anything else.

The problem with the decision in the Languedoc-Roussillon, where Freche has a large following within the party, is that it could create some division (though not a party split) which could be problematic looking ahead to the 2011 cantonals and Senatorials. Just look at the little chaos Charasse and his DVG followers created in the Puy-de-Dome PS (that said, it would be more of an internal thing if it happens and wouldn't help the UMP).

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Since I usually post interesting Ifop sociological studies, here's one on the Christian left in France

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1082-1-study_file.pdf

It also says that 50% of French are non-practicing Catholics, 14.2% practicing and 35.8% none/others.

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CSA apparently thinks it's useful to poll 2012 in 2010. But the media likes this.

Sarkozy (UMP) 32%
Aubry (PS) 19%
Bayrou (MoDem) 12%
Villepin (DVD) 10%
Le Pen (FN) 9%
Duflot (Green) 8%
Besancenot (NPA) 6%
Buffet (PCF) 3%
Arthaud (LO) 1%

Sarkozy (UMP) 52%
Aubry (PS) 48%

Sarkozy (UMP) 29%
Strauss-Kahn (PS) 22%
Bayrou (MoDem) 10%
Villepin (DVD) 10%
Le Pen (FN) 9%
Duflot (Green) 9%
Besancenot (NPA) 7%
Buffet (PCF) 3%
Arthaud (LO) 1%

Strauss-Kahn (PS) 52%
Sarkozy (UMP) 48%

interestingly...

Fillon (UMP) 27%
Aubry (PS) 21%
Bayrou (MoDem) 11%
Duflot (Green) 11%
Villepin (DVD) 9%
Le Pen (FN) 8%
Besancenot (NPA) 7%
Buffet (PCF) 3%
Arthaud (LO) 3%

Strauss-Kahn (PS) 27%
Fillon (UMP) 25%
Bayrou (MoDem) 11%
Duflot (Green) 10%
Le Pen (FN) 8%
Villepin (DVD) 7%
Besancenot (NPA) 6%
Buffet (PCF) 3%
Arthaud (LO) 3%

Strauss-Kahn (PS) 54%
Fillon (UMP) 46%

Aubry (PS) 51%
Fillon (UMP) 49%

These lowlifes don't do crosstabs for the Sarkozy matchup (although that's the most likely, obviously) but they have full crosstabs for the Fillon ones.

One which is interesting is the ouvrier vote in the runoffs: 66-34 for Aubry (she wins 51-49 overall) but only 59-41 for DSK (he wins 54-46 overall)...

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The first two were published by Marianne some weeks ago.

And I'm quite surprised by Fillon polling worse than Sarko. I always had the imperssion that the media were overrating his "popularity" but not at this point...

Well, CSA is a crappy joke pollster, so I wouldn't read too much into their joke polls.

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de Villiers has some eye cancer of some sort. It's pretty rare.

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he is really politically dead

Yeah, the Chouan is retreating back to the Bocage more and more. He's done little lobbying for the MPF in the regionals except for his own friends-and-neighbours in Vendée. There's been some grumblings in the (small) MPF federations outside Vendée, from what I've heard.

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http://www.lemouvementpopulaire.fr/personnalites/

Just to note that Besson doesn't have a page, a page which normally includes a list of things he likes and dislikes.

They probably didn't want his "I dislike" list to be "Arabs, immigrants, blacks, darkies" and his "I like" list to be "racists, xenophobes, nativists, collabos, traitors etc"

Also Hortefeux has a page but no list of likes/dislikes... conspiracy!

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Jeunesse and Le Pen in the same sentence?

Youth vote for the FN is quite high.

The SVP is also pissed at the poster.

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Ifop poll for some pro-life outfit shows that 85% of women are favourable to abortion, with only 7% opposed.

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1092-1-study_file.pdf

But a majority think there are too many abortions etc.

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If I can watch I-télé in Ottawa, anybody can, really.

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If I can watch I-télé in Ottawa, anybody can, really.

It all depends of the type of subscription you have. Sincerely, I understand nothing to TV systems, etc. It's my father who manages all this, and he's more interested to having Italian channels.

I watch it on the interwebs.

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If I can watch I-télé in Ottawa, anybody can, really.

It all depends of the type of subscription you have. Sincerely, I understand nothing to TV systems, etc. It's my father who manages all this, and he's more interested to having Italian channels.

I watch it on the interwebs.

Oh, right. Could you post a link ? I'll probably have a look later.

http://fr.wwitv.com/

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On something more interesting than the day's little bitchfest and caling-Besson-a-Nazi (I plead guilty, but I do it for fun)...

UMP deputy and Mayor of Vannes (but open Sarkozy-hater since 2007) François Goulard has announced that Villepin will be creating his own party on Thursday to provide "an alternative" to the Hungarian. Is Sarkozy's likely nomination of Tron and Baroin to the cabinet his response to this and his last-ditch attempt at killing the movement in its egg?

Potential members:

Azouz Begag (MoDem) ??
Auguste Cazalet, UMP Senator (Chiraquien)
Henri Cuq, UMP deputy
Jean-Louis Debré, UMP President of the Constitutional Council (Chirac's friend)
Daniel Garrigue, NI (ex-UMP) deputy (anti-Sarkozy and Gaullist to boot)
Guy Geoffroy, UMP deputy
Brigitte Girardin, former cabinet minister
François Goulard, UMP deputy
Jean-Pierre Grand, UMP deputy
Pierre Jarlier, UMP Senator
Jacques Le Guen, UMP deputy (recently in a mini-feud with the party over his flopped candidacy in Bretagne)
Jean Leonetti, UMP deputy
Hervé Mariton, UMP deputy (but split with Villepin over NATO, Iraq in 2003. Supported McCain in 2006)
Georges Tron, UMP deputy (but new cabinet minister)
Jean Ueberschlag, Chiraquien UMP deputy
Benoît Yvert, member of Villepin's club
Marie-Jo Zimmermann, UMP deputy

Plus a number of local officials and Villepin's club members... It's unlikely this party will allow double-membership with the UMP, so you could see some big departures from the UMP. The 2011 cantonal and senatorial elections will be bloody.