Which TX county will be more Democratic?

[Miles]

I've been wondering this.

Obama was the first Democrat since FDR to win Harris County twice. It voted for him in 2008 by 19K votes and he held it in 2012 by just 971. Before Obama, it was pretty textbook Lean R, for a larger county. If Trump is underperforming with suburban voters, I imagine Hillary improves on Obama there.

Jefferson County (Beaumont/Port Arthur) by contrast has voted Democratic in all but two elections since FDR (1956 and 1972). The margins over recent cycles are getting smaller, though; Gore carried it by 6%, for example, but Obama won it by less than 2% in 2012. It has the largest % black population of any TX county at 34% (vs 22% for Harris) but is more blue collar, given that the oil industry's role in the economy.