German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[CARLHAYDEN]

Did turkish immigration play a role in the election?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Thanks for the prompt answer.

I suspect turkish immigration will play a significant role in the federal election.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I'd appreciate it if you could provide more information about the Free Democrats.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I'd appreciate it if you could provide more information about the Free Democrats.

Well from what I can tell they are economically right and socially centrist to liberal. They are basically a classical liberal, right of centre liberal, or libertarian party. I believe they are also the most economically far right party in Germany.

Thank you.

What you posted was my understanding.

What I would like to know in more detail is their foreign policy position (have they gone the way of the UKs Liberal Democrats as an anti-American party), and why they seem to be perpetually locked in the 4 - 10% category.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Thank you for the elaboration.

Haven't been to Germany in a loooong time.  Back then there were two Germanies.

I did get the impression at that time (don't know to what extent its true today) that the parties were largely occupationally based (manual workers = Social Democrats, Farmer = CDU/CSU, professionals = Free Democrats).

[CARLHAYDEN]

Obviously, I gave but one example for each party.

Businessmen seem to predominately support the CDU/CSU as well.

[CARLHAYDEN]

To what extent is the CDU making inroads in what used to be East Germany?

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So. would it be true that what used to be East Germany still hasn't been brought up to (West) German economic standards, and that this is a major factor in the voting patterns?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Yes, the standard left wing line.

When you're going to lose an election, go to court.

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I get the impression from my friends still in Germany that Schroeder is edging away Chirac and his sociopathic hatred of the United States.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I think there was an earlier one some weeks ago...but then the CDU/FDP decline stopped... Still grotesque numbers of undecideds out there, for all I hear. Heck, I'm not quite decided.
Smart money's on a grand coalition.

I have a theory that the undecideds will break disproportionately to the Free Democrats (not a majority, but two to three times their proportion of the current decideds).

[CARLHAYDEN]

I think there was an earlier one some weeks ago...but then the CDU/FDP decline stopped... Still grotesque numbers of undecideds out there, for all I hear. Heck, I'm not quite decided.
Smart money's on a grand coalition.

I have a theory that the undecideds will break disproportionately to the Free Democrats (not a majority, but two to three times their proportion of the current decideds).

Ahem.

Merkel was a weak candidate.

I would suggest that the SPD is in a real fix.  If they accept a partnership with the CDU/CSU, I suspect they will further fracture, losing more support to the loony left.

Also, such a big coalition government should develop without including the FDP,  they would become by default the only sane opposition.

Finally, if the 'big' coalition should develop, woud the Greens and the Link-PDS amalgamate?


 

[CARLHAYDEN]

Yes, and Stalin and Trotsky disliked each other.  

Yes, I agree that the Green officals wouldn't take a back seat to der Linke.

Yes, I agree that the Greens are more prosperous than than Linke supporters.

However, from what I have seen, the Greens are only marginally less nutty that der Linke.

I think that if there is a temporary SPD-Green government, that the Greens will lose support to der Linke, and the CDU/CSU will clearly win the next election.

CDU/CSU           40
SPD                   30
FDP                   10
L-PDS                  9
GREEN                 7
OTHERS               4

If there should be a 'Grand Coalition' without the FDP, the CDU/CSU will lose support to the FDP and the SPD to the Linke.

If there is a temporary CDU/CSU and FDP government, and if the government performs creditably, I suspect both the CDU/CSU and FDP will further improve.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I wonder what the impact of Merkel's support for increasing the VAT was on CDUs vote.

I suspect it was a significant drain.

Comments,

[CARLHAYDEN]

It seems to me that there is NO viable majority coalition.

If the CDU/CSU joins any coalition with the SPD or Greens, they will irk their supporters.

If the SPD joins in any coalition with CDU/CSU, it will irk their supporters.

If FD joints in any coalition with any party other than CDU/CSU, it will irk their supporters.

If the Greens join in any coalition other than with the SPD, it will irk their supporters.

Needless to say, the L-PDS is not welcome by any of the other parties, and does not want to have anything to do with any of the other parties.

So, the two questions are:

1.) How soon can new elections be held?

2.) What changes will occur in such an election?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Ah, Jens, your knowledge of American cultural icons is even greater than you knowledge of American politics!

LOL

[CARLHAYDEN]

Angus,

Unlike the Americans and the Brits, the Krauts and the Frogs haven't grasped the fundamental idea that too much government strangles the economy.

Remember the 'German miracle' under the pre-socialist governments in the 50s and 60s?