MN: Rasmussen: Franken inches into the lead in MN

[Verily]

New Poll: Minnesota Senator by Rasmussen on 2008-07-22

Summary: D: 49%, R: 46%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Brittain33]

I'm ready for them to stop polling this race. It's all over the map.

[The Mikado]

I have trouble with this.  This jibes with what my gut tells me about this race.

Of course, my gut didn't talk to 500 likely voters in Minnesota.

[Wiz in Wis]

I have trouble with this.  This jibes with what my gut tells me about this race.

Of course, my gut didn't talk to 500 likely voters in Minnesota.

that statement was full of WIN

It does seem like Rasmussen is polling a different Minnesota than everyone else

[MarkWarner08]

I'm ready for them to stop polling this race. It's all over the map.

Yes. No more polling until after the GOP convention.

[bgwah]

If Franken somehow managed to win (which I doubt he will), he has one termer written all over him...

[MarkWarner08]

If Franken somehow managed to win (which I doubt he will), he has one termer written all over him...

It's usually premature to write off a newly elected Senator as a "one-termer" because six years is   enough time for a Senator to establish himself and compensate for some of his vulnerabilities. In Franken's case, even if 2014 is another outstanding year for Democrats (which is unlikely if Obama is reelected in 2012), he'll have a lot of trouble winning reelection. Unlike Klobuchar, every liberal vote Franken casts will further the frame that he's out of touch with the middle. If tries to triangulate, the DFL will run him out of the Senate on a rail.

My best guess is that Franken will just retire after his first term, if he even wins one.

[Hash]

What next, Coleman up 25 then down 10?

[Verily]

What next, Coleman up 25 then down 10?

SUSA and Rasmussen have a longstanding disagreement about Minnesota. Basically, SUSA says it's about 10-15 points more Republican, in all races, than Rasmussen does. Surprisingly consistently, too, so it must be a methodology thing. Unfortunately, Quinnipiac's poll backed up Rasmussen's Presidential numbers but SUSA's Senate numbers, which just confused everything.

[Sensei]

Interesting. CQ just changed this to Lean Coleman. I'll have to wait a while before I predict on this.

[Lunar]

I kind of wonder how Obama could win by 15% while Coleman wins by 5%.  I believe it could happen, but it still feels odd.  Coleman isn't that moderate, is he?  Franken seems to be about where Obama is.

I wonder if Obama will be nice and campaign for Franken a little when he has free time...

[Padfoot]

I kind of wonder how Obama could win by 15% while Coleman wins by 5%.  I believe it could happen, but it still feels odd.  Coleman isn't that moderate, is he?  Franken seems to be about where Obama is.

I wonder if Obama will be nice and campaign for Franken a little when he has free time...

Its because Franken is a horrible candidate.  He's just not that appealing.

[12th Doctor]

Joke candidate = Joke race

[Sam Spade]

What next, Coleman up 25 then down 10?

SUSA and Rasmussen have a longstanding disagreement about Minnesota. Basically, SUSA says it's about 10-15 points more Republican, in all races, than Rasmussen does. Surprisingly consistently, too, so it must be a methodology thing. Unfortunately, Quinnipiac's poll backed up Rasmussen's Presidential numbers but SUSA's Senate numbers, which just confused everything.

Not to mention that the Star-Tribune, with its inherently screwed up sampling, shows the same thing as the Q poll.

Of course, the Q poll that came out today shows Obama's MN lead down to 2, so that doesn't really apply any more.

Mason-Dixon does poll MN - we should just wait - I just have my gut as to where this race is, and it ain't Franken ahead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully, a Star Tribune poll confirms this poll, but now I believe Franken can actually win this race.