AR Congressional Races 2014

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Pryor was one of the nay votes in both 2006 and 2007, if memory serves me. It illustrates the point, just like with Healthcare, that he may talk a good game but when Harry Reid needs him, he'll be there.

Cotton should hammer that point on Healthcare and Immigration, and imply that it could be the same way on guns or anything else down the road.

[RogueBeaver]

They're toying with him. Pryor's rated C, Cotton A. Or to put it graphically...

[JerryArkansas]

It is all temporary.  They will turn soon.

[windjammer]

Pryor was one of the nay votes in both 2006 and 2007, if memory serves me. It illustrates the point, just like with Healthcare, that he may talk a good game but when Harry Reid needs him, he'll be there.

Cotton should hammer that point on Healthcare and Immigration, and imply that it could be the same way on guns or anything else down the road.

Healthcare: Pryor voted against during the final vote.
Immigration: 68 senators voted this bill.
Playing on this points risks to be hard but you're right, he should try!

They're toying with him. Pryor's rated C, Cotton A. Or to put it graphically...

Yes but strategically, I think it would be better for the NRA to endorse Pryor. I mean, Arkansas is really becoming red, being only pro-life won't save him anymore. He will have to become the new Joe Manchin if he wants to be reelected. According to me, the NRA will stay neutral. But this association has nothing to lose to support Pryor, with or without his support, Cotton will be extremely pro gun if he wins! So supporting pro gun democrats is probably the right thing to do for the NRA, strategically.

[tmthforu94]

The NRA only cares about having folks in Congress who will vote how they want them to on gun control. Cotton has a better record of doing that Pryor, so it would logically make sense for them to support Cotton.

[windjammer]

Pryor risks to be much more pro-gun in order to win office againn, he probably dealt with the NRA.  And yes, you're right, "The NRA only cares about having folks in Congress who will vote how they want them to on gun control." So strategically, if they don't support Pryor and support Cotton, it's not sure Pryor will lose and will be less pro gun because he hasn't their official support. But if they support Pryor, his prospects to win again will be bigger and he will be probable much more pro gun because he would have dealt with the NRA, not supporting Cotton changes nothing because he's always strongly pro-gun.

[tmthforu94]

Well, there lies the problem with Pryor if his vote on certain issues can be bought. I understand your point - a fair one. I imagine there is a decent chance the NRA will just skip this race completely since it is essentially a win-win situation for them.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Pryor was one of the nay votes in both 2006 and 2007, if memory serves me. It illustrates the point, just like with Healthcare, that he may talk a good game but when Harry Reid needs him, he'll be there.

Cotton should hammer that point on Healthcare and Immigration, and imply that it could be the same way on guns or anything else down the road.

Healthcare: Pryor voted against during the final vote.
Immigration: 68 senators voted this bill.
Playing on this points risks to be hard but you're right, he should try!

We crossed that vote Aye on Cloture but nay on final vote bridge in 2004. It doesn't work. Cloture vote is what matters.  

As for immigration, so what? Just because 68 people vote for trash, doesn't change the fact that it is trash.

The point is all these Democrats like Pryor and Landrieu voted no last time because it was Bush's immigration reform effort and they promised they opposed amnesty, but when it came down to it with a Democrat in the White house and in the leadership, when they need their votes, their state's view came in second to the agenda. I don't see any downside to running against the immigration bill in either LA or AR.

[windjammer]

Pryor was one of the nay votes in both 2006 and 2007, if memory serves me. It illustrates the point, just like with Healthcare, that he may talk a good game but when Harry Reid needs him, he'll be there.

Cotton should hammer that point on Healthcare and Immigration, and imply that it could be the same way on guns or anything else down the road.

Healthcare: Pryor voted against during the final vote.
Immigration: 68 senators voted this bill.
Playing on this points risks to be hard but you're right, he should try!

We crossed that vote Aye on Cloture but nay on final vote bridge in 2004. It doesn't work. Cloture vote is what matters.  

As for immigration, so what? Just because 68 people vote for trash, doesn't change the fact that it is trash.

The point is all these Democrats like Pryor and Landrieu voted no last time because it was Bush's immigration reform effort and they promised they opposed amnesty, but when it came down to it with a Democrat in the White house and in the leadership, when they need their votes, their state's view came in second to the agenda. I don't see any downside to running against the immigration bill in either LA or AR.

Yes Yankee, I agree with you, cloture vote is what matters. But I mean, if they attack him, he will be able to block this attack with "I oppose the final vote". It's just vicious, I agree, and politically well played. Landrieu was a good political player with health care: she has voted the bill but has added an amendment which permits Louisiana to win 300 millions dollards for Katrina. The results: she manages to mobilize the black community because of her vote in favor of health care but doesn't ruin her political carreer: "Louisiana wins 300 millions!". They're just good political players...

And for immigration, they are hypocrital, but it's not really a surprise? It's politics...

Well, there lies the problem with Pryor if his vote on certain issues can be bought. I understand your point - a fair one. I imagine there is a decent chance the NRA will just skip this race completely since it is essentially a win-win situation for them.

They will probably skip the race completely. And Pryor can be bought, it's sure!

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton spox responds to the Reid ad:  “Congressman Cotton isn’t one to ride someone’s coattails, he is indeed an outspoken fighter for Arkansas, especially against Obamacare. He hasn’t encountered many Arkansans who want their elected officials to follow instead of lead, but I guess some Democrats have low expectations of their elected officials, who aren’t capable of much more than sitting on the back bench.”

[RogueBeaver]

Darr and others are still looking at the nearly-open 4th. Darr says he hopes to know more within the next 4-6 weeks. Last month Cotton said he had no timetable, in April he said not before the August recess, but the latter makes sense for logistical and fundraising purposes.

[JerryArkansas]

I really don't want darr to go for the 4th district.  I rather have a Dem than him.

[windjammer]

I really don't want darr to go for the 4th district.  I rather have a Dem than him.

Why do you dislike him?

[RogueBeaver]

Dunno about Jerry, but Darr's a mediocrity from what I've heard of him. The other major 4th possibility is the Assembly's majority leader Bruce Westerman, who represents Hot Springs. Darr could quite conceivably lose the primary to Westerman or other Pubs looking at this race.

Meanwhile the Dems seem to be settling on "excessively ambitious extremist" as their anti-Cotton narrative. Not getting traction for now, or so it seems. We'll have to wait for Cotton to formally jump in before Pryor unveils his own narrative.

[JerryArkansas]

I really don't want darr to go for the 4th district.  I rather have a Dem than him.

Why do you dislike him?

From meeting him, he seems like a person who is full of themselves.

[RogueBeaver]

I really don't want darr to go for the 4th district.  I rather have a Dem than him.

Why do you dislike him?

From meeting him, he seems like a person who is full of themselves.

What do you think of Pryor?

[JerryArkansas]

I really don't want darr to go for the 4th district.  I rather have a Dem than him.

Why do you dislike him?

From meeting him, he seems like a person who is full of themselves.

What do you think of Pryor?

He seems Like a good guy, but I think he is little to . . . , he seems like he expects to win his elections.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

That doesn't shock me at all, to know.

I hope he finds out the hard way that following Reid's orders doesn't further his expectations.

[RogueBeaver]

That doesn't shock me at all, to know.

I hope he finds out the hard way that following Reid's orders doesn't further his expectations.

He's been whining for a while about how horrible it was to start campaigning this year.

[RogueBeaver]

DG comes down squarely in Cotton's corner, hardly new for them: "It's not exactly a secret that the bright new congressman from the Fourth District of Arkansas is more than contemplating a run for the U.S. Senate next year against Mark Pryor, who currently warms that seat..." Cotton said that he wants food stamps decoupled from the farm bill, among other things, before reconsidering his vote on it. Also said he'll make a decision "later this year" but August makes the most sense. Needs at least one full fundraising quarter this year as a declared candidate.

[RogueBeaver]

Libertarians are trying for ballot access. If they get it, doubt they play significant role. All margins will be clean enough.

[RogueBeaver]

Darr's chief would-be rival in the 4th, Bruce Westerman, says he's "leaning towards" a run there, getting considerable encouragement and his family is warming to the idea. All the dominoes are in place- the only things Cotton has left to do is release his Q2 totals and complete final prep for an early August launch.

In other news, Griffin says he supports a path to legalization but not immediate citizenship. Given his scorecards, not terribly surprising.

[RogueBeaver]

Darr says he'll announce whether or not he'll run for LG or the 4th by Aug. 1, but if Cotton hasn't pulled the trigger by then he'll wait to discuss the 4th. Said he's "99.99%" sure Cotton's challenging Pryor.

[RogueBeaver]

Add Rankin to the Pubs' 4th list. I'd guess she comes in third given because she's a) bad candidate b) because there are better options. Meanwhile, Pub "insiders" say Cotton's decision could come within the next month. Which fits with what we know already.

[RogueBeaver]

McConnell's SuperPAC gave Cotton $25k, and the PAC almost only donates to incumbent Senators, NRSC or announced Senate candidates. This follows Cotton's fundraiser with Boehner in March.