2012 NDP leadership convention

[RogueBeaver]

So this will be as wide-open as the Liberal '06 race, depending on how tightly Blaikie sets the rules? It will probably be as exciting as that convention too.

[RogueBeaver]

Quebec wing, Topp: delay the vote. Layton's letter seemed to indicate a late January timetable. My take is that this means they're aiming for a free-for-all like the Grits had in 2006.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndps-quebec-wing-urges-delayed-leadership-convention/article2149384/

[RogueBeaver]

Sometime in the winter at any rate. The Grits were absolutely nuts to delay 2 years- the longest wait for a convention in Canadian history, by far.

[RogueBeaver]

Total shocker.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-firebrand-toots-his-own-horn/article2152741/

Also, Romeo Saganash is considering an entry. NDP's 2006 IMO.

[RogueBeaver]

Remember that unlike the other parties (outside Atlantic Liberals) the NDP shares provincial and federal memberships. If you are in one, you are in the other. No opting-out.

Except in Québec.

Only because the NDP has no provincial wing in Quebec It was de-affiliated, then merged into a party, which merged into a party, which merged into QS

Which is why Mulcair has said he won't run unless the convention is pushed back into spring. Shades of Rae.

[RogueBeaver]

Wanting to vote for a particular candidate for party leader is, perhaps, not the greatest reason to join a political party.

That's the main reason anyone joins parties in Canada (that and nomination contests)

It's interesting how different our two political cultures are. Over here, signing up members for this purpose would be called branch stacking and is heavily frowned-upon (and often criticised in the media and by people whose opponents have signed up many new members).

As long as it's done properly. Perhaps the dirtiest race was the PC leadership race of 1983, where youth memberships in particular were used and abused due to highly *flexible* statutes in the PC constitution. Long story short, that's why the modern CPC does not have a youth wing.

[RogueBeaver]

Union quotas: Topp v. Mulcair. Those are staying, though perhaps reduced. Even Blair couldn't junk them.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-solidarity-cracks-over-role-of-unions-in-picking-leader/article2153405/

As expected, Chow won't run.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/olivia-chow-wont-seek-late-husband-jack-laytons-job-of-ndp-leader/article2153517/

What role should labour play?

[RogueBeaver]

Any chance of a re-launch of the Quebec NDP?  I mean, considering that it will probably be like a heartland for them from now on, (unless they suddenly see a collapse in Quebecois support) federally, it makes little sense not to have a provincial NDP in Quebec. 

We already have two social democratic parties in Quebec: PQ and QS. Even federalist social democrats vote PQ.

[RogueBeaver]

Any chance of a re-launch of the Quebec NDP?  I mean, considering that it will probably be like a heartland for them from now on, (unless they suddenly see a collapse in Quebecois support) federally, it makes little sense not to have a provincial NDP in Quebec. 

We already have two social democratic parties in Quebec: PQ and QS. Even federalist social democrats vote PQ.

I know none federalist social democrat supporting PQ. They support QS or are big supporters of Legault thing.

And anyways, Marois' PQ isn't social democrat. It has no other ideology than chasing votes, now.

We'll have to agree to disagree, but I still don't see any Quebec NDP. We haven't had any provincial branches of federal parties since the PLQ became independent in 1964.

[RogueBeaver]

Speaking of the Hon. gentleman from Outremont, more on how Layton's inner circle hates his guts.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/09/05/don-macpherson-ndp-leadership-drama-is-worthy-of-shakespeare/

[RogueBeaver]

Topp: Layton wanted a 7-month race.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/09/06/pol-ndp-leadership.html

Chow: No endorsements.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/09/05/pol-chow-mansbridge-national05.html

[RogueBeaver]

The biggest difference would be in tone. Speaking as someone who's followed Mulcair's career since '05... his temper is no worse than Coderre's.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/lawrence-martin/firebrand-mulcair-is-the-best-bet-to-take-on-harper/article2152485/

[RogueBeaver]

It would certainly take a fighter to take on Harper. Dion and Ignatieff were much too gentle and let him steamroll them.

Remember the Grit "angry man" ads used against Harper with far less justification during the Martin years?

[RogueBeaver]

Why is the merger non-issue even being debated?

[RogueBeaver]

There will be no labour quota, and the convention will be held somewhere in Central Canada in either March or April. Hopefully we Montrealers get to host our 3rd party convention since 2005...

[RogueBeaver]

Your Martha Hall Findlay (Ducasse) is apparently considering a run. Will he indirectly topple Mulcair by making a well-received speech?

[RogueBeaver]

Either Nash or Julian will be the left/union candidate, though Julian is by far the more saleable of the two. IMO Mulcair/Topp/Julian on the final ballot. And Teddy is 100% right that we will pummel Nash on that issue. We'll also pummel Topp on his union ties if he's elected, BTW.

[RogueBeaver]

The closest parallel would be Mulroney- another backroom boy who ran a major organization. Mulcair's position in Quebec will be a strong inoculation against potentially falling to Brison Syndrome (even though as I've mentioned before, Mulcair was always on the PLQ's left wing).

[RogueBeaver]

Megan Leslie doesn't have the institutional support and is too inexperienced. Next cycle she'll be ready, and one of the few Dipper MPs I like.

On frontrunners: When has an NDP race ever been ugly and personal? This isn't a Liberal leadership race where cracks at your opponent's mother (looking at you, Bob Rae) are fair game.

[RogueBeaver]

Per P&P, Mulcair apparently has strong support in Sasketchewan and the Atlantic provinces. Topp still the frontrunner IMO.

Also: Is there any chance Topp might run in TO-Danforth when the by-election is called?

[RogueBeaver]

Gagnon: Topp tops the game.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/lysiane-gagnon/ndp-contender-at-the-topp-of-his-game/article2169560/


Poll: Dippers want Mulcair, Grits want premature restoration.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Orange+Crush+just+blip/5422727/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Only 1600/90000 NDP members are Quebecers. The math definitely isn't working for him right now.

[RogueBeaver]

Depends who runs in English Canada: Nash, Julian, Dewar, or a combination thereof.

[RogueBeaver]

Dewar and Ashton might run, a draft-Julian movement is budding and Davies is out.

http://www.thehilltimes.ca/dailyupdate/view/ottawa_mp_dewar_set_to_run_for_ndp_leadership_sources_09-20-2011

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/ashton-eyes-taking-run-at-federal-ndp-leadership-130255158.html

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Vancouver+veteran+Davies+opts+against+leadership+race/5437829/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Teddy, you forgot Dewar on the maybe list. I'm more interested if both Nash and Julian will run.