New poll hype thread

[NOVA Green]

I'll go with:

NBC Ntl: C +3
NV- C +2
NC- T +1
OH- T +2

[NOVA Green]

CO- C+6
GA- T+3
IA-  T+4
VA- C+7

[NOVA Green]

MO- T +11
CO- C+5
VA- C+7


CO- Bennett +10
MO- Tie


I think Trump has consolidated Republican holdouts in the Saint Louis/ KC burbs and is exceeding Romney '12 margins in SW and SE MO.

I am bearish about CO---- some of the posters on this forum look at state results based solely upon 2008 and 2012, where Obama overperformed numbers, and automatically add a few points based upon their concept about Latino percentages and turnouts, and ignoring the critical role that White Suburban Indies play in the 'burbs of Denver, and that some of these are now drifting towards Trump, and many of the young ones are Libertarian/Green holdouts.

I am bullish about VA--- Clinton has a stronger deep base, and angry white suburban women in NoVA/Richmond/Tidewater are nailing this state down to a point where it is unlikely Trump will be able to break out of the vampire coffin here.

[NOVA Green]

Predictions:
CO: Clinton +4, Bennet +10
FL: Clinton +1, El Marco +5
PA: Clinton +6, McGinty +2 (AG tied if polled)
VA: Clinton +6, (Comstock up 3 against Scott if polled)
NC: Tie, Burr +2, Cooper +4, (Forest +2, Stein +1, Folwell +1 if polled)

I hope the races I included in parentheses are polled.

Are they polling non Pres races as well???

If so, awesome!!!!

[NOVA Green]

I'll say C+4 since Fox has a slight Republican house effect.

It's been a bad week for Trump, and all of the antics since the debate have likely worsened his numbers.

[NOVA Green]

Weren't polls supposed to be popping up this weekend?

I suspect there will be some tomorrow for the Sunday talk shows, presumably from from the other four CPD polls.

What are the other four CPD polls?

Assuming you mean Committee on Presidential Debates and statewide polls?

If so, what state are coming up, and if not what is the polling outfit?

[NOVA Green]

Weren't polls supposed to be popping up this weekend?

I suspect there will be some tomorrow for the Sunday talk shows, presumably from the other four CPD polls.

What are the other four CPD polls?

Assuming you mean Committee on Presidential Debates and statewide polls?

If so, what state are coming up, and if not what is the polling outfit?

I meant the polls that are included in the average that decides who will be invited to the debate, and those are FOX, CBS/NYT, ABC/WaPo, NBC/WSJ, and CNN/ORC. FOX released a poll yesterday, and the other four networks have Sunday morning shows where they often release polls that they discuss. Also, CBS/YouGov frequently debuts new state polls on Face The Nation, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some from them.

I would be very shocked if we didn't see a plethora of post-debate polls tomorrow.

Awesome.... we love polls here!!!

So basically 2-3 more national polls, and if we're lucky some CBS/YouGov state polls and throw in some unexpected goodies and maybe a few unis and we'll have a ton to discuss/debate/argue about tomorrow???

[NOVA Green]

I'll take a safety, and assuming Taxgate is not reflected ...

C +5

[NOVA Green]

Real answee is Clinton +4 in the four-way.  Johnson at 8.

My prediction was head-to-head so we'll see.

Good point... maybe we should now start posting 2 way vs 4 way predictions as part of the guessing game.   

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/783087360036708352

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Tick tock goes the clock....so we'll see some tweets shortly giving us the goodies???

[NOVA Green]

OH PPP---

C+2 (4-Way)
C+4 (2-Way)

[NOVA Green]

CBS- TX Poll

Considering it will be mostly conducted post debate, but likely involving under-sampling of working-class Texas Latinos of I'll do a stretch and call it T +1.

I'm hoping they also provide a regional breakdown to see if patterns that we have seen in Metro Houston swinging hard towards Clinton pan out.

[NOVA Green]

ME-2: Johnson 99%, McMullin 1%.

McMullin isn't on the ballot in Maine.  Just Trump, Clinton, Johnson and Stein.

For some reason, "Trump, Clinton, Johnson, and Stein" makes me picture a seedy law firm.

I'll take my Johnson and Steins (Google with German translation) and Trump your Clinton?