New Tradesports rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Someone is buying Bloomberg, who is now ridiculously overvalued at 1.1.

I've seen more discussion of Bloomberg for president in recent weeks.  However, all of those rumors say that he would run as an independent rather than a Republican.  So it really doesn't make any sense that people would be betting on him as the GOP nominee.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Romney recovers.
Down: Gore, Hagel
Up: Edwards, Giuliani

Democrats
Clinton 49.3
Obama 29.0
Gore 9.3
Edwards 8.0
Richardson 3.9
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 34.2
McCain 21.0
Thompson 16.8
Romney 15.0
Gingrich 3.4
Hagel 1.7
Rice 1.7
Bloomberg 1.1
Huckabee 1.0
Brownback 1.0
T. Thompson 1.0
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.5
Tancredo 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

OK, so it's unclear why Romney really dropped so much last night, only to recover shortly thereafter.  Maybe there were rumors about bad fundraising, but then today of course people found out that that was all bunk, and he actually did very well in the first quarter.

Anyway, McCain is now the one who seems to be crashing (and it just started, so this time it probably *is* the result of the bad fundraising news).  As I type this, he's dropped all the way to 18.0, the lowest he's been since the fall of 2005.  Fred Thompson is at 17.9, so Thompson could pass McCain soon.

[Verily]

McCain is out of the woods now; he's back at 19.0 while Thompson is at 18.0. I don't think he'll decline much further just from fundraising numbers.

Giuliani: 34.2
McCain: 19.0
F. Thompson: 18.0
Romney: 15.8
Gingrich: 3.4

Everyone else is below 2; Hagel dropped considerably to 1.7 this morning and is actually tied with Rice for sixth.

[Mr. Morden]

Well, Fred Thompson has now surpassed McCain.  He's at 22.0 right now.  Incredible, considering that he wasn't even on anyone's radar screen a few weeks ago.

Also, Tommy Thompson is now 4th highest on the GOP side among declared candidates or candidates with exploratory committees.  At 1.0, he's ahead of Huckabee, Brownback, Gilmore, Hunter, etc.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton surges, although there's no corrresponding loss elsewhere. In fact, the other Democrats all gain or stay even, except that Obama loses a whole 0.1.

On the Republican side, Flava' of the month surges into second place. His gains are at the expenses of Giuliani and McCain. Romney manages to gain thanks to his fundraising numbers.  Huckabee gains.

Democrats
Clinton 52.0
Obama 28.9
Gore 9.9
Edwards 8.4
Richardson 3.9
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 32.7
Thompson 22.0
McCain 20.1
Romney 17.3
Gingrich 3.4
Huckabee 2.0
Hagel 1.7
Rice 1.6
Bloomberg 1.1
Brownback 1.0
T. Thompson 1.0
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.5
Tancredo 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

On the Republican side, Flava' of the month surges into second place.

So he's been promoted from flavor of the week to flavor of the month? 

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade probability of each candidate winning the general election:

Clinton 28.0%
Obama 19.8%
Giuliani 19.0%
McCain 12.5%
Thompson 9.9%
Gore 8.0%
Romney 7.2%
Edwards 5.0%

So yes, Obama has surpassed Giuliani.  Also, yes, that does add up to a greater than 100% probability for those eight candidates alone, but that'll probably be corrected out eventually.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama hits a new record high, thanks to his fundraising numbers.  Clinton, Gore, and Richardson drop the most.
Giuliani and Hagel gain (Hagel almost doubles), while McCain, Romney, and Thompson drop. McCain is the lowest since 2005, and is only 3.1 above his record low, but he's reclaimed 2nd place from Thompson.

Democrats
Clinton 50.1
Obama 32.3
Gore 8.6
Edwards 8.0
Richardson 3.3
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.1
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 31.7
McCain 18.1
Thompson 17.9
Romney 16.0
Gingrich 3.4
Hagel 3.0
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 1.6
Brownback 1.0
T. Thompson 1.0
Bloomberg 0.9
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.5
Tancredo 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Wow, the GOP side is so wide open it's unbelievable.  *Four* people with a >15% chance of winning the nomination.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton down a bit.
The 2-5th place Republicans gain at 1st place Giuliani's expense.
Sanford goes from zilch to 0.6.

Democrats
Clinton 48.1
Obama 32.0
Gore 9.0
Edwards 8.1
Richardson 3.3
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.1
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 28.9
McCain 19.0
Thompson 18.5
Romney 16.7
Gingrich 3.9
Hagel 2.4
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.5
Brownback 1.0
Bloomberg 0.9
T. Thompson 0.7
Sanford 0.6
Cheney 0.6
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2

[Verily]

Obama's odds at the Democratic nomination have now surpassed Giuliani's odds at the Republican nod.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Edwards is down.
It's a close contest for 2nd place on the Republican side.

Democrats
Clinton 48.1
Obama 32.0
Gore 9.0
Edwards 7.0
Richardson 3.5
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.1
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 29.6
McCain 18.8
Thompson 18.5
Romney 17.0
Gingrich 3.9
Hagel 2.4
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.5
Brownback 1.0
Bloomberg 0.9
T. Thompson 0.7
Cheney 0.7
Sanford 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Tancredo 0.3
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2

[Aizen]

Wow, is McCain going to let another person surpass him?

[Verily]

Wow, is McCain going to let another person surpass him?

It happened briefly earlier in the week and will probably happen again permanently when Thompson announces.

[Verily]

Thompson is now considerably ahead of McCain (and on a new record, and above 20):

Giuliani: 29.5
Thompson: 20.8
McCain: 18.2
Romney: 16.7
Gingrich: 4.0
Hagel: 2.8

The Democrats are less interesting right now:

Clinton: 47.8
Obama: 31.6
Gore: 9.0
Edwards: 7.6
Richardson: 3.5


I imagine when Thompson actually announces, with numbers this strong already, he'll shoot up to at least 30.

[Verily]

Big movement on winning individual; Obama has nearly become the favorite to win the presidency while Giuliani tanks.

Clinton: 25.9
Obama: 25.0
Giuliani: 14.8
McCain: 12.7
Gore: 7.8
Romney: 7.7
Edwards: 5.2

No one has yet traded on Thompson, presumably waiting to be certain that he's running.

[Mr. Morden]

No one has yet traded on Thompson, presumably waiting to be certain that he's running.

No, there actually was a trade on Thompson before, but then they reset the prices.  Notice how the volume on Thompson is 1 rather than 0.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Everyone with a last, since they just reset it.
Thompson surges. Gingrich and Hagel are up a bit, for a distant 5th and 6th place.

Democrats
Clinton 47.8
Obama 31.8
Gore 9.0
Edwards 7.6
Richardson 3.5
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.1
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 29.9
Thompson 21.8
McCain 18.2
Romney 17.0
Gingrich 4.0
Hagel 2.8
Huckabee 1.9
Rice 1.6
T. Thompson 1.2
Brownback 1.0
Bloomberg 0.9
Cheney 0.6
Sanford 0.6
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2

[minionofmidas]

Wow, is McCain going to let another person surpass him?

It happened briefly earlier in the week and will probably happen again permanently when Thompson announces.

I think he meant: another one apart from Thompson, ie Romney.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gore and Edwards are close now. Obama goes down a bit.
McCain is no longer far ahead of 4th placed Romney.
Tommy Thompson's I have the same last name as Fred boost might be wearing off.
Some idiots are blowing money on Elizabeth Dole contracts.

Democrats
Clinton 47.8
Obama 31.1
Gore 8.1
Edwards 7.9
Richardson 3.5
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 29.8
Thompson 20.8
McCain 17.9
Romney 17.1
Gingrich 4.0
Hagel 2.8
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 1.6
Brownback 1.0
Bloomberg 0.9
T. Thompson 0.7
Cheney 0.6
Sanford 0.6
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2
Dole 0.1

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Got to feel sorry for the idiots bidding on Gore.

[Boris]

What the hell is Sanford doing at 0.6?

[Reignman]

What the hell is Sanford doing at 0.6?

I guess some people think he might change his mind.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Democrats dominate winning individual.

Clinton 25.9
Obama 22.3
Giuliani 16.7
McCain 12.7
Thompson 10.0
Gore 7.9
Romney 7.7
Edwards 5.2
Allen 0.6
Warner 0.5

PRESIDENT.DEM2008 56.1
HOUSE.DEM.2008 80.5
SENATE.DEM.2008 79.0