Non-political 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Megathread

[Frodo]

Hurricane Irma is closing in on sustained winds of 190 mph -and should reach 200 mph soon.  

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905144773643816960

[Strudelcutie4427]

Hurricane Irma is closing in on sustained winds of 190 mph -and should reach 200 mph soon.  

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905144773643816960

200 would be very hard given a pressure of 916. The atmospheric dynamics shouldnt allow for there to be 200 mph winds unless it goes below 900 millibars. Unless the environmental pressure around the storm is very high, then the extreme gradient may allow it

[Dr. Arch]

Hurricane Irma is closing in on sustained winds of 190 mph -and should reach 200 mph soon.  

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905144773643816960

200 would be very hard given a pressure of 916. The atmospheric dynamics shouldnt allow for there to be 200 mph winds unless it goes below 900 millibars. Unless the environmental pressure around the storm is very high, then the extreme gradient may allow it

The pressure has been going down steadily with each update. It's entirely possible it hits 200 overnight if it keeps this up.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Hurricane Irma is closing in on sustained winds of 190 mph -and should reach 200 mph soon.  

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905144773643816960

200 would be very hard given a pressure of 916. The atmospheric dynamics shouldnt allow for there to be 200 mph winds unless it goes below 900 millibars. Unless the environmental pressure around the storm is very high, then the extreme gradient may allow it

The pressure has been going down steadily with each update. It's entirely possible it hits 200 overnight if it keeps this up.

You might be right. Meteorologist on TV just said the environmental pressures are high so Irma's got the potential. Unfortunately I think its Barbuda thats in the path tonight, and it could be apocalyptic once the storm is gone. We can only hope that there are no people on that island tonight

[JA]

Hurricane Irma is closing in on sustained winds of 190 mph -and should reach 200 mph soon.  

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905144773643816960

200 would be very hard given a pressure of 916. The atmospheric dynamics shouldnt allow for there to be 200 mph winds unless it goes below 900 millibars. Unless the environmental pressure around the storm is very high, then the extreme gradient may allow it

The pressure has been going down steadily with each update. It's entirely possible it hits 200 overnight if it keeps this up.

You might be right. Meteorologist on TV just said the environmental pressures are high so Irma's got the potential. Unfortunately I think its Barbuda thats in the path tonight, and it could be apocalyptic once the storm is gone. We can only hope that there are no people on that island tonight

Those in the islands don't leave, except tourists and such. People go to local shelters. My friend's young daughter is staying with her family in the Virgin Islands during the storm and they don't seem too concerned, will just be going into their basement.

[Dr. Arch]

Hurricane Irma is closing in on sustained winds of 190 mph -and should reach 200 mph soon.  

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905144773643816960

200 would be very hard given a pressure of 916. The atmospheric dynamics shouldnt allow for there to be 200 mph winds unless it goes below 900 millibars. Unless the environmental pressure around the storm is very high, then the extreme gradient may allow it

The pressure has been going down steadily with each update. It's entirely possible it hits 200 overnight if it keeps this up.

You might be right. Meteorologist on TV just said the environmental pressures are high so Irma's got the potential. Unfortunately I think its Barbuda thats in the path tonight, and it could be apocalyptic once the storm is gone. We can only hope that there are no people on that island tonight

Those in the islands don't leave, except tourists and such. People go to local shelters. My friend's young daughter is staying with her family in the Virgin Islands during the storm and they don't seem too concerned, will just be going into their basement.

That's correct. They can't just drop everything and hop on a plane. There simply isn't the infrastructure for that. Imagine doing that in Puerto Rico with a population of 3m+.

[TheSaint250]

It looks like it's gonna hit hard.

[emailking]

Hurricane seasons cycle up and down. Remember there was 2005 which had Katrina then 2006 was incredibly in active.

2006 was only inactive compared to 2005. It had about average activity.

[JA]

Some pictures out of St. Martin that I screenshot from a video on Twitter.

And here's a video of the storm from Twitter: https://twitter.com/dave1020/status/905404902154887173

[Strudelcutie4427]

Hurricane seasons cycle up and down. Remember there was 2005 which had Katrina then 2006 was incredibly in active.

2006 was only inactive compared to 2005. It had about average activity.

Compared to the 1980-2017 average of
14/7/3
It was well below average. 2006 was 10/5/2
Even look recently. We had that 2010-12 stretch where there were 19 storms each year
But then 2013-15 were very inactive
13 was 14/2/0 (most were extremely weak. Strongest was a cat 1$
14 was 8/6/2
15 was 11/4/2

But meanwhile o heard a report that the island of Barbuda (pop 1300) was completely leveled and I'm afraid that was only the beginning of Irnas assault

[KingSweden]

Posters in Florida and PR: stay safe. This one looks bad.

[emailking]

Hurricane seasons cycle up and down. Remember there was 2005 which had Katrina then 2006 was incredibly in active.

2006 was only inactive compared to 2005. It had about average activity.

Compared to the 1980-2017 average of
14/7/3
It was well below average. 2006 was 10/5/2
Even look recently. We had that 2010-12 stretch where there were 19 storms each year
But then 2013-15 were very inactive
13 was 14/2/0 (most were extremely weak. Strongest was a cat 1$
14 was 8/6/2
15 was 11/4/2

That seems to be a bit of cherry picking. Since records have been kept, it was a season of average activity. Cyclonic activity are on cycles that last decades, so yes within a cycle a season of average activity will appear either above or below average. But even over the time period you're citing it wasn't incredibly inactive.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Go back and see my post about the active 1870s-1890s, inactive 1900s-1920s, active 1930s-1950s, inactive 1960s-1995 and the current active period from 1995-present

[Frodo]

Here is the current location of Hurricane Irma:



And its latest track -it is looking less likely that the mountains of Cuba will weaken Irma before it turns north unto the Florida peninsula:

[Frodo]

Looks like Hurricane Irma will be a category 4 by the time it hits south Florida on Sunday:





And it looks like Georgia and the Carolinas will start to feel the impacts from the storm Monday, with Virginia following suit Tuesday:



The worst winds will stay focused on Florida as well as coastal Georgia and the Carolinas:

[Ye We Can]

Tropical storm Jose has reached Hurricane strength and so has Katia. There are now 3 active Hurricanes.

[Frodo]

Check out this NASA vid of Hurricane Irma from the International Space Station:

https://youtu.be/XoMRueJ17Rc?t=12

[Strudelcutie4427]

Alot of the models look like theyre shifting east, maybe going off shore florida, although under any scenario this will be a disaster. Either for Florida or for Georgia and South Carolina

[Frodo]

Tropical storm Jose has reached Hurricane strength and so has Katia. There are now 3 active Hurricanes.

Thankfully, neither will impact areas already heavily affected by either Hurricanes Harvey or Irma:

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[Frodo]

Alot of the models look like theyre shifting east, maybe going off shore florida, although under any scenario this will be a disaster. Either for Florida or for Georgia and South Carolina

Just be glad Labor Day weekend is over, and most vacationers in those areas have probably made it home by now. 

That's one silver lining, at least. 

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Here in Daytona, people are freaking out and fleeing and stocking in droves.

[Dereich]

Same here in Jacksonville. I passed 3 closed gas stations on my way home from work. Also, they've closed the courthouse for Friday and Monday and cancelled all trials for next week in advance. Jacksonville is usually within a sort of "bubble" that pushes hurricanes out a bit, so I'm still kind of skeptical that it hits hard here, but everyone is certainly getting into the spirit of the thing.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

We've got stores out of water here which is freaking ridiculous as it'll be over a week before Irma might reach here and since we're not on the coast, Irma's extremely unlikely to have an impact on water systems here. (To be fair, I suspect the shortage is mainly due to supplies of bottled water being diverted to areas that will need it more than we will.)

[AN63093]

Thanks for the pics Frodo.  Most of the models I've seen end on Mon in FL, so I've been looking for projections of what it'd look like when it got up here.  I assume it'll be down to tropical storm levels or less.. just lots of rain, etc.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think climate change reduced the amount of hurricanes?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fseG2IwpBqM