North Rhine-Westphalia state election (5/22)

[Middle-aged Europe]

It´s less than two weeks until election day now, so I´ve decided to open up a separate topic for "the most important state election" in Germany.

It´s considered such important because it´s the German state with the largest population. Traditionally, NRW is also the most important stronghold for the SPD... which could fall to the CDU this time.




BASIC FACTS


Incumbent minister-president (prime minister):
Peer Steinbrück (SPD), since 2002

Governing coalition:
SPD/Greens (since 1995, SPD alone or with alternating coalition partners since 1966)

Challenger:
Jürgen Rüttgers (CDU), former Minister of Education and Research (1994-1998) in the cabinet of Chancellor Kohl

Main opposition parties:
CDU/FDP (CDU in opposition since 1966, FDP since 1980)

Results of the last election (5/14/2000):
SPD 42.8% (102 seats)
CDU 37.0% (88 seats)
FDP 9.8% (24 seats)
Greens 7.1% (17 seats)


Latest poll results:

Forsa (5/1)
CDU 45%
SPD 35%
Greens 7%
FDP 7%

Emnid (5/3)
CDU 44%
SPD 34%
Greens 9%
FDP 7%

Infratest-dimap (5/4)
CDU 45%
SPD 35%
Greens 8%
FDP 7%

[minionofmidas]

NRW is one of just a handful of states where you can't split your vote. Voters have only one vote which is used both to determine who won the direct election seat and for proportional distribution.
This somewhat hurts minor parties, of course. (It also used to be the law in Hessen until 1991, when the FDP saw to it being changed, and in Schleswig-Holstein until 2000 when the Greens saw to it being changed...see a pattern? )

Steinbrück is not very charismatic, and is very much a man of the SPD's technocratic Old Right, which is pretty strong in NRW. The state's SPD-Green coalition has never been running all that smoothly. Steinbrück's ascendance to the top job is something of an accident, really. After the 2000 state elections, the SPD more or less settled on Harald Schartau as then PM Wolfgang Clement's heir apparent. However, Schartau was not a member of the Landtag at the time (still isn't. will be in two weeks time, though) which according to the NRW constitution is a requirement for becoming PM. In 2002, Clement quit to join the national cabinet, and the state SPD had to pick somebody else.

[minionofmidas]

In fifties NRW used to be CDU stringhold IRRC (traces of Zentrum I suppose)

True.

Btw, here's the 1990 and 1995 results:
1990
Turnout 71.8
SPD 50.0
CDU 36.7
FDP 5.8
Greens 5.0
other 2.5
Greens finally entered NRW Landtag after this election.

1995
Turnout 64.0
SPD 46.0
CDU 37.7
Greens 10.0
FDP 4.0
other 2.3
FDP out of parliament, SPD majority broken after 20 years, SPD-Green coalition.

2000
Turnout 56.7
other 3.3
remainder see above really

[jimrtex]

NRW is one of just a handful of states where you can't split your vote. Voters have only one vote which is used both to determine who won the direct election seat and for proportional distribution.
This somewhat hurts minor parties, of course.

Don't most constituency losers from the CDU and SPD get elected off their party's list?  So why would a 3rd party voter care (unless there is the perception that his voted doesn't count because his constituency candidate gets just a few percent of the vote.

Or (where it is legal) is their significant cross-over from nominally major party voters who want to help a potential coalition partner reach the threshold?   (e.g a SPD 40%-Green 5% result is better than a SPD 42%-Green 3% result for both SPD and Green voters).

[minionofmidas]

Lots of people split their votes, CDU direct vote, FDP list vote, or SPD direct vote, Green list vote. Helping to ensure the smaller party gets over 5% is a factor in that, but it's not the only one.
For one thing, quite a few voters haven't fully grasped the system. Some are perhaps not aware that the really important vote is the list vote (which in Bundestag elections is labelled Zweitstimme, secondary vote).
But most importantly lots of people would like to split their vote evenly down the middle but that is just not possible. And splitting it this way round appears more sensible than the other way round. Although when you think about it, the SPD (or CDU) vote involved serves to get your local SPD (or CDU) candidate elected, but at the expense of another candidate of the same party, not the opposition. Or if he's got a safe list position anyways, not even that.

[minionofmidas]

In fifties NRW used to be CDU stringhold IRRC (traces of Zentrum I suppose)

1947
turnout 67.3
CDU 37.6
SPD 32.0
KPD 14.0
Z 9.8
FDP 5.9

1950
turnout 72.3
CDU 36.9
SPD 32.3
FDP 12.1
Z 7.5
KPD 5.5

1954
turnout 72.6
CDU 41.3
SPD 34.5
FDP 11.5
Z 4.0
KPD 3.8

1958
turnout 76.6
CDU 50.5
SPD 39.2
FDP 7.1

1962
turnout 73.4
CDU 46.4
SPD 43.3
FDP 6.8

1966
turnout 76.5
SPD 49.5
CDU 42.8
FDP 7.4

1970
turnout 73.5
CDU 46.3
SPD 46.1
FDP 5.5

1975
turnout 86.1
CDU 47.1
SPD 45.1
FDP 6.7

1980
turnout 80.1
SPD 48.2
CDU 43.2
FDP 4.9
Green 3.0

1985
turnout 75.3
SPD 52.1
CDU 36.5
FDP 6.0
Green 4.6

KPD - Communist Party of Germany.
Z - Center Party. Yes, they existed after 1945 as well. In fact, they still exist. They haven't been winning anything at all for ages, sorta like the US Prohibition Party.
According to NRW state law, any party that crosses 33% in one district is exempt from the 5% threshold, and the Zentrum managed to do that in 1954 (thanks to the CDU not standing in one district.)
The state really swung against the CDU in the 80s.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The state really swung against the CDU in the 80s.

Why? Economic decline?

[skybridge]

It´s less than two weeks until election day now, so I´ve decided to open up a separate topic for "the most important state election" in Germany.

It´s considered such important because it´s the German state with the largest population. Traditionally, NRW is also the most important stronghold for the SPD... which could fall to the CDU this time.




BASIC FACTS


Incumbent minister-president (prime minister):
Peer Steinbrück (SPD), since 2002

Governing coalition:
SPD/Greens (since 1995, SPD alone or with alternating coalition partners since 1966)

Challenger:
Jürgen Rüttgers (CDU), former Minister of Education and Research (1994-1998) in the cabinet of Chancellor Kohl

Main opposition parties:
CDU/FDP (CDU in opposition since 1966, FDP since 1980)

Results of the last election (5/14/2000):
SPD 42.8% (102 seats)
CDU 37.0% (88 seats)
FDP 9.8% (24 seats)
Greens 7.1% (17 seats)


Latest poll results:

Forsa (5/1)
CDU 45%
SPD 35%
Greens 7%
FDP 7%

Emnid (5/3)
CDU 44%
SPD 34%
Greens 9%
FDP 7%

Infratest-dimap (5/4)
CDU 45%
SPD 35%
Greens 8%
FDP 7%

Why didn't you bring up Ruettger's controversy?

[CO-OWL]

The state really swung against the CDU in the 80s.

Why? Economic decline?

I would say a combination of popular SPD incumbent Johannes Rau (PM from 1978-98), lack of a decent CDU challenger and opposition bonus against the CDU/FDP federal government.
From what I've heard they ran very good election campaigns. The SPD successfully labelled itself THE NRW party, promoting social justice and government help for the declining coal and steel industries in the Ruhr area

From the 80s to the mid-90s the SPD generally did (much) better in state elections than in federal or local ones in NRW.

[CO-OWL]

Why didn't you bring up Ruettger's controversy?

If you refer to Rüttger's alleged remarks about the "superiority of the Catholic faith", IMHO that was much ado about nothing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would say a combination of popular SPD incumbent Johannes Rau (PM from 1978-98), lack of a decent CDU challenger and opposition bonus against the CDU/FDP federal government.
From what I've heard they ran very good election campaigns. The SPD successfully labelled itself THE NRW party, promoting social justice and government help for the declining coal and steel industries in the Ruhr area

From the 80s to the mid-90s the SPD generally did (much) better in state elections than in federal or local ones in NRW.

Very interesting. Thanks

[skybridge]

Why didn't you bring up Ruettger's controversy?

If you refer to Rüttger's alleged remarks about the "superiority of the Catholic faith", IMHO that was much ado about nothing.

You could easily put it aside as Pope hysteria (like the Bildzeitung's headline "Wir sind Papst" [We, the Germans, are Pope]). I know the German elections haven't gotten just as ugly yet but I'm pretty sure, a couple years down the road, every quote will matter.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Why didn't you bring up Ruettger's controversy?

If you refer to Rüttger's alleged remarks about the "superiority of the Catholic faith", IMHO that was much ado about nothing.

everyone considers his/her religion to be better than others, at least to some degree.  if not, why bother to believe in it at all?

[Notre Dame rules!]

barring some unforseen problem, it looks like the CDU os cruising to victory, right?

[minionofmidas]

barring some unforseen problem, it looks like the CDU os cruising to victory, right?

Looks like it, yeah.

[minionofmidas]

I would say a combination of popular SPD incumbent Johannes Rau (PM from 1978-98), lack of a decent CDU challenger and opposition bonus against the CDU/FDP federal government.
From what I've heard they ran very good election campaigns. The SPD successfully labelled itself THE NRW party, promoting social justice and government help for the declining coal and steel industries in the Ruhr area

From the 80s to the mid-90s the SPD generally did (much) better in state elections than in federal or local ones in NRW.

Very interesting. Thanks

One important factor is the decline of the CDU in its former urban strongholds, the more bourgeois catholic cities like Münster, Bonn, Aachen, now the Greens' NRW strongholds alongside Cologne and Bielefeld.
Aachen, and IIRC Bonn as well, elected an SPD mayor for the first time ever in 1994, and they held onto it in the otherwise catastrophic 1999 local elections (and in 2004 as well!)
Bonn and Münster were two of the three direct seats the SPD gained in 2002 (the third was the more conservative of the two Stuttgart seats).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Why didn't you bring up Ruettger's controversy?

Well, it was in the headlines for several days, but this was weeks ago. I think nobody cares about it anymore and it won´t have a impact on the outcome of the election.  So, it simply wasn´t important enough to get mentioned in my "basic facts".

[CO-OWL]

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Partly because of the growing universities. IIRC in Münster more than 20% of the population are students. The cities got less Catholic and the urban Catholics became less conservative.

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I think that was mostly due to the FDP actively campaigning for Erststimmen. In Bonn and Münster the SPD candidates won their seats with just 40% of the vote.

[Colin]

What do you believe this means for Schroder in the next general election? I'm guessing that this is an indication that the CDU could have the strength to fell Schroder.

Also when are the next federal elections in Germany?

[Bono]

Isn't part of this a reaction to that silly anti-discrimination law?

[minionofmidas]

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Partly because of the growing universities. IIRC in Münster more than 20% of the population are students. The cities got less Catholic and the urban Catholics became less conservative.

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I think that was mostly due to the FDP actively campaigning for Erststimmen. In Bonn and Münster the SPD candidates won their seats with just 40% of the vote.

The FDP candidates in those two constituencies were Guido Westerwelle and Jürgen W Möllemann, after all.

[minionofmidas]

What do you believe this means for Schroder in the next general election? I'm guessing that this is an indication that the CDU could have the strength to fell Schroder.

Also when are the next federal elections in Germany?

Fall 2006.
It could...either by a razor-thin margin or on turnout difference - which is how they win many of their state election victories. I'm pretty sure the PDS will be back in parliament in 2006, so there's also the off chance of a hung parliament. (YES!!! CHAOS!!! I LOVE IT!!! )

[Middle-aged Europe]

Isn't part of this a reaction to that silly anti-discrimination law?

Short answer: Nope.

Long answer: That "silly anti-discrimination law" wasn´t very controversial among the electorate. Same thing like with the EU constitution. The voters in NRW care exactly about four things: the economy, unemployment, unemployment, and unemployment. Other things are more or less irrelevant. Well, except for university students. They care only about tuition fees.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It could...either by a razor-thin margin or on turnout difference - which is how they win many of their state election victories. I'm pretty sure the PDS will be back in parliament in 2006, so there's also the off chance of a hung parliament. (YES!!! CHAOS!!! I LOVE IT!!! )

You anarchist you!

Do you really want a grand coalition? *shudder*

[minionofmidas]

It could...either by a razor-thin margin or on turnout difference - which is how they win many of their state election victories. I'm pretty sure the PDS will be back in parliament in 2006, so there's also the off chance of a hung parliament. (YES!!! CHAOS!!! I LOVE IT!!! )

You anarchist you!

Do you really want a grand coalition? *shudder*

No...not really...then again: how stable would it be?