Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread
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Author Topic: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread  (Read 87594 times)
Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
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« Reply #100 on: October 19, 2015, 07:24:16 PM »
Any pre-election polling on the Liberal vote in Atlantic Canada?  I know that they did reasonably well there in 2011, but 65% of the total vote tonight is tremendous.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #101 on: October 19, 2015, 07:25:12 PM »
Tories back up by 2 votes in Tobique.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #102 on: October 19, 2015, 07:25:31 PM »
Finally some blue.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #103 on: October 19, 2015, 07:25:57 PM »

...the only one without a Liberal lead.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #104 on: October 19, 2015, 07:27:20 PM »
Could this early Liberal led affect the voting in the rest of the country?
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Torie
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« Reply #105 on: October 19, 2015, 07:28:09 PM »
I wonder if it is fair to say that Canada is the most "elastic" of the major industrial democracies. The swings are just amazing.  Is it because Canada is less ideological than others, so personalities matter more?
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #106 on: October 19, 2015, 07:29:03 PM »
Quote from: Clyde1998 on October 19, 2015, 07:27:20 PM
Could this early Liberal led affect the voting in the rest of the country?

We've been asking that about their Southern neighbours for years.
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cp
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« Reply #107 on: October 19, 2015, 07:29:42 PM »
NO! Still too early to tell. Not a great sign for the Tories, though.
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Holmes
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« Reply #108 on: October 19, 2015, 07:29:54 PM »
Quote from: Torie on October 19, 2015, 07:28:09 PM
I wonder if it is fair to say that Canada is the most "elastic" of the major industrial democracies. The swings are just amazing.  Is it because Canada is less ideological than others, so personalities matter more?

That's one way to put it. This election is a special case though that only happens whenever a party's been in power for over 10 years and people want change.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #109 on: October 19, 2015, 07:30:33 PM »
Quote from: Torie on October 19, 2015, 07:28:09 PM
I wonder if it is fair to say that Canada is the most "elastic" of the major industrial democracies. The swings are just amazing.  Is it because Canada is less ideological than others, so personalities matter more?

For comparison, the highest Labour-Tory single seat swing here in a GE since 1945 was, I believed, about 19%.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #110 on: October 19, 2015, 07:31:25 PM »
Liberals ahead everywhere again.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #111 on: October 19, 2015, 07:31:43 PM »
I'm very curious how Quebec will turn out, specifically the possible Liberal/Bloc gains.
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cinyc
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« Reply #112 on: October 19, 2015, 07:32:04 PM »
And we're back to the Liberals leading or winning all 32 seats in Atlantic Canada.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #113 on: October 19, 2015, 07:33:15 PM »
Quote from: Thinking Crumpets Crumpet on October 19, 2015, 07:21:52 PM
Quote from: HagridOfTheDeep on October 19, 2015, 07:20:13 PM
I knew it was coming, but it still sucks. I tried to convince myself it wouldn't but... ugh. Liberal majorityyyy...

Just curious, what beef do you have with the Liberals?

My beef is completely with Justin Trudeau. I buy into the shallow politics of personality, and he is a smarmy worm who rose to prominence on the merits of his last name alone. He has no worthwhile experience that prepares him to be the leader of a country, lacks discipline, and is doing the classic maneuver where he twists the Liberal Party into whatever it has to be to win. I would absolutely love to see the Liberal Party turn back to the centre and choose a leader who's more grounded in reality. That's a party I could, and probably would, vote for. But right now it's just a silly fantasy that's about to form government for the next four years.

Yes, I know I'm a hyperbolic douche, but if we had a ranked ballot, Liberal would be number three on mine. Why not elect real progressives rather than Liberal opportunists? We'd get a prime minister with some chops, too.

tl;dr... Torie is right; personality matters more here, at least to me.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #114 on: October 19, 2015, 07:34:09 PM »
Quote from: Phony Moderate on October 19, 2015, 07:30:33 PM
Quote from: Torie on October 19, 2015, 07:28:09 PM
I wonder if it is fair to say that Canada is the most "elastic" of the major industrial democracies. The swings are just amazing.  Is it because Canada is less ideological than others, so personalities matter more?

For comparison, the highest Labour-Tory single seat swing here in a GE since 1945 was, I believed, about 19%.

Lol, that happens here in at least one seat most elections Cheesy
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cinyc
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« Reply #115 on: October 19, 2015, 07:34:26 PM »
And Fundy Royal, NB flips into the Conservative column... for now.  And within a blink of an eye, the Liberals lead there again.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #116 on: October 19, 2015, 07:34:52 PM »
Good to see that the center-left vote has coalesced around one party to get rid of Harper--so much about a "Shy Tory" vote tonight...
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #117 on: October 19, 2015, 07:35:00 PM »
Quote from: cinyc on October 19, 2015, 07:34:26 PM
And Fundy Royal, NB flips into the Conservative column... for now.

Rob Moore is a favourite of mine. I hope he hangs on.

EDIT: And it flipped back Tongue
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andrew_c
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« Reply #118 on: October 19, 2015, 07:35:24 PM »
Peter Stoffer and Megan Leslie have both lost to Liberals.  Not looking good for the NDP.
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Barnes
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« Reply #119 on: October 19, 2015, 07:35:38 PM »
The Liberals are at a full sweep again.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #120 on: October 19, 2015, 07:35:52 PM »
Quote from: cinyc on October 19, 2015, 07:34:26 PM
And Fundy Royal, NB flips into the Conservative column... for now.

CTV has it back to a Liberal lead.
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Panhandle Progressive
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« Reply #121 on: October 19, 2015, 07:36:24 PM »
I'm wondering with this stellar start if it's more likely that the Libs could go against conventional wisdom and actually end with a majority. Thoughts?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #122 on: October 19, 2015, 07:37:09 PM »
Quote from: ♥♦ 3peat 2016 ♣♠ on October 19, 2015, 07:36:24 PM
I'm wondering with this stellar start if it's more like that the Libs could go against conventional wisdom and actually end with a majority. Thoughts?

Definitely a possibility.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #123 on: October 19, 2015, 07:38:01 PM »
Does anyone have a link to results in specific ridings?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #124 on: October 19, 2015, 07:38:34 PM »
Liberals up nearly 20% in Halifax.
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