2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm talking about elections not since 1996 but 1896 Historically the Tories have swept western prince.

Ah. politics has changed a lot though since then, even for traditional PEI.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

TV seems to be disagreeing with me... maybe I should do a little research before talking about my arse I'll get back to you.

[Hatman 🍁]

The maps are on Wikipedia, and i think you made them, so ... lol.

Anyways, the Tories could still theoretically win just 3 seats, as the other 2 they lead in are still close. Just not the same 3 I predicted.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The last string of competitive votes:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Edward_Island_general_election,_1986
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Edward_Island_general_election,_1982
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Edward_Island_general_election,_1979
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Edward_Island_general_election,_1978
Note the maps
[brag] oh wait, lets see who made the maps before we rely on them
oh oh wait, it's me![/brag]

Looks like I basically got it backwards. The Tories had their strength in the centre of the island, not the Liberals, and the Liberals won on the fringes, not the Tories. The reason the Tories are doing so well since the 90's in Kings County is thanks to Binns.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Edward_Island_general_election,_1966
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Edward_Island_general_election,_1962
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Edward_Island_general_election,_1943

Yea, I got reversed somehow. Centre=PC

[Hatman 🍁]

One more poll to go in Souris-Elmira, which is going back and forth.

[Smid]

All polls in Souris-Elmira now reporting.

Also Belfast-Murray River... won with an 8 vote margin (unofficial results).

[Hatman 🍁]

belfast-murray river was one of the seats I said would go Tory, but the liberals hang on to it. but, the Tories have picked up tignish-palmer rd.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like the final results will be 22-5.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Did the wikipedia page on this go down? I was editing in results but now I cant get on.

[Smid]

I know I put up the 2007 map last night, but I'm putting it again here for the sake of comparison.

IMPORTANT EDIT: I got ridings 5 and 7 around the wrong way. Edited to fix that.

Both maps use the same colour scale:

2011


2007

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know I've said this before, but there's nowt wrong in repeating such things; your outline maps are wonderful.

Anyways, bizarre patterns.

[Hatman 🍁]

I expected the Liberals to do much worse in Prince County. While they did lose a seat, their other seats were strong wings.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The 2011 map has the wrong riding

[adma]

And the splendidly named "Bush Dumville" was reelected.

[Smid]

The 2011 map has the wrong riding

Cheers mate, fixed.

[mileslunn]

A Liberal majority as expected, although it appears the Tories did better than most predicted.  Ironically enough the Tories got almost the same percentage their federal counterparts did last May however the NDP did significantly worse (they got 15%, vs. only 3%).  Tomorrow should be interesting.  If the Tories do better than expected we may have to revise Thursday's predictions, but otherwise it may just in this case not across the board.

[Smid]

Some Swing Maps:

Liberal


PC


NDP


Greens


Island Party
Note - since the party did not field candidates last election, this map can double as a party-strength map. Strongest result was in Montague-Kilmuir, at 8.31% - this seat and the neighbouring Belfast-Murray River (Island Party polled 4.01%) were both pickups by the Liberals.


Independents
Note - in no seat did an independent stand in both elections. Helps explain the big swings in Morell-Mermaid (the independent last election polled 18.8%)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

NWT election is in full swing.

A Non-Partisan Independent has been elected. Also, A Non-Partisan Independent has been elected. Also, A Non-Partisan Independent has been elected. There's one riding where A Non-Partisan Independent is running against A Non-Partisan Independent is running against A Non-Partisan Independent. I predict the Non-Partisan Independent will win.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

And my final post on the NWT election is this:
http://www.electionsnwtresults.ca/esTerritorialResults.htm

Sorry but this is pathetic. The "live election coverage" is not even reporting on live election coverage. It's just a bunch of natives speaking in their native language one after another in front of radio mics. I'm embarrassed to be in the same country as this. It's not a population thing, don't give me that, Yukon elections are exciting as you'll all see in a week. This? This... This is pathetic.

[Smid]

And finally Party Strength Maps:

Liberal


PC


NDP


Greens

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I've done some, er, poll by poll maps.

I couldn't decide which one was more vomitworthy so I've included both.



The Tories and Liberals tied in two (one got mis-labled somehow as straight tory). No other party won.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Smid, you do one for the Island Party?

[Smid]

Smid, you do one for the Island Party?

Great work on those poll maps! I'd started work ages back on some, but decided getting province-wide riding maps for the other provinces was a higher priority (presently working on Quebec), so I didn't finish them. That's fantastic work, though!

The Island Party's strength map is the same as its swing map (previous page) because it didn't run candidates last election.

[mileslunn]

I've done some, er, poll by poll maps.

I couldn't decide which one was more vomitworthy so I've included both.



The Tories and Liberals tied in two (one got mis-labled somehow as straight tory). No other party won.

  Anybody know how this would have been coloured in the most recent federal election just for comparison.