Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[Torie]

Sam Spade, I read Baker of Louisiana is retiring, which might create some play.

[Torie]

I would tend to agree that the bell cannot be unrung for Stevens when it comes to the trial, but I also suspect Republicans underpoll in Alaska, so who knows. Palin could well put him over the top by increasing turnout.

I don't know whether Palin will help, but Republicans do tend to underpoll in Alaska, so I agree there.  Whichever, the trial is the important part. [Torie emphasis added]

What are the odds that Stevens will be found not guilty in DC before the election?  What happens if it is a hung jury?

[Torie]

Updated D House List, but not D Watch List.

Are you going to give some commentary on the close House races, Sam? For example, why do you put Musgrave and Porter under water at the moment?

[Torie]

Robin Hayes just said that he wants Sam to move his name higher up on the list. He wants to be number one! 

[Torie]

Would it be correct to read this as predicting a D net pick-up of 13 seats in the House, with a range of 5 either way? So 8-18?

It'll be higher than that number, brittain.  I haven't updated the list just quite yet - probably today.

But ya, you're reading it right.  When I get to day before election day, I'll start to make my hard call.

You should offer some commentary for the tight races. If the Dootlittle seat goes Dem, it is going to be a 23 seat Dem pickup. I picked that number out of thin air, but it seems right.

[Torie]

Well, just explain why you call them tight, whether it be polls, money, ads, the district, tea leaves, or a random CD generator. 

[Torie]

Senate done.  House will be finished this evening...

NC is a tossup? 

[Torie]

Well if I counted right, Sam has a 22 seat pick up in the House based on intensive research and thought, and I have a 22 seat pickup based on looking at Rothenberg's list, and saying agree or disagree, and checking some polls and my knowledge of lack thereof of a district, and then my gut, and then pulling a number out of my ass.  Some of the individual seats vary, like CA-4 and so forth, but whatever. Two of the three Cuban districts in Florida are going down?  I though just one was in play?

[Torie]

Well if I counted right, Sam has a 22 seat pick up in the House based on intensive research and thought, and I have a 22 seat pickup based on looking at Rothenberg's list, and saying agree or disagree, and checking some polls and my knowledge of lack thereof of a district, and then my gut, and then pulling a number out of my ass.  Some of the individual seats vary, like CA-4 and so forth, but whatever. Two of the three Cuban districts in Florida are going down?  I though just one was in play?

Sam has both Cuban seats staying Republican (FL-21 and FL-25).  The two Florida seats he has going Dem are those of Ric Keller and Tom Feeney.

He has them both going down the toilet, actually.

Likely DEM PICKUP
AK-AL
AZ-01*
CA-04*
CO-04
CT-04
FL-08
FL-21
FL-24
FL-25

[Torie]

Kilroy beats Stivers in OH-15. So the final Dem pickup in the House is plus 22. Torie hits it on the nose.