CA-Sen: California Quake

[Mr. Smith]

If Sanchez makes the runoff, I would have her as about a 2:1 favorite in November, maybe higher if both Hispanic and populist R turnout is way up.

Except you can expect Harris to make serious in-roads with Hispanics, given that her criminal justice records are going to look very attractive.

And Jerry' Brown's endorsement brings a lot of clout to the table regarding R/Indie support.

Sure Sanchez will have the advantages there, but it's not that bad for Harris in that regard.

Now what has Sanchez done for black outreach exactly? She's also still not quite as liberal the NorCal leftists who turnout more, and for those not-so-populist R's (R's are  a minority anyway), what kind of real conservative credentials does she have anymore?

Oh no, Harris has this 2:1 just as long as she stays the course and doesn't seriously mess up, 3:1 if she lightens up and goes full-on Obama (rather than the 60 Obama/40 Hillary sort of thing going on now), and 50/50 if Sanchez does manage some to improve [funding is still a factor after all]

[catographer]

Perhaps the general election map will look something like the '08 primary map, with more liberal, AA, and NorCal Democrats going for Harris and SoCal, moderate-conservative and Hispanic Dems going for Sanchez. Then add in the effect of Republicans either skipping or going mostly Sanchez, and you may have a solid Sanchez victory. However, my more subjective opinion of the state of the race is that Harris will have an advantage due to what I think will be support among the vast majority (60%+) of Democrats; the Republican staying out would mean that the electorate will mostly be Democratic, so a victory among Dems would seal the deal for her. Support from Brown, the state party, La Times, Clinton etc. would help immensely.