Greece General Discussion

[jaichind]

does anyone have a link to a list of the full members of the cabinet?
it would also be interesting to which factions in syriza the ministers and parlamentarians belong or come from.
and do you know which kind of electoral reform syriza proposes, esp. concerning the threshold?

The list which I got from Greek news wire ANA. 

New government announced
Jan. 27 (ANA-MPA) -- The new SYRIZA government on Tuesday announced the composition of its first cabinet.

The new government is as follows:

Prime Minister: Alexis Tsipras

Government Vice-President: Yiannis Dragasakis

Interior - Administration Reconstruction Minister: Nikos Voutsis

Alternate Minister for Administrative Reform: George Katrougalos

Alternate Minister for Civil Protection: Yiannis Panousis

Alternate Minister for Migration Policy: Tasia Christodoulopoulou

Deputy Minister for Macedonia-Thrace: Maria Kollia-Tsarouha

Economy, Infrastructure, Shipping and Tourism Minister: George Stathakis

Alternate Minister for Infrastructure, Transport and Networks: Christos Spirtzis

Alternate Shipping Minister: Thodoris Dritsas

Alternate Tourism Minister: Elena Kountoura

Productive Reconstruction, Environment and Energy Minister: Panagiotis Lafazanis

Alternate Minister for the Environment: Yiannis Tsironis

Alternate Minister for Rural Development: Vangelis Apostolou

Deputy Minister for Rural Development: Panagiotis Sgouridis

Finance Minister: Yanis Varoufakis

Alternate Minister: Nadia Valavani

Alternate Minister: Costas Mardas

Education, Culture and Religious Affairs Minister: Aristidis Baltas

Alternate Minister for Culture: Nikos Xydakis

Alternate Minister for Education: Tasos Kourakis

Alternate Minister for Research and Innovation: Costas Fotakis

Deputy Minister for Sports: Stavros Kontonis

Labour Minister: Panos Skourletis

Alternate Minister for Social Solidarity: Theano Fotiou

Deputy Minister for Combatting Unemployment: Rania Antonopoulou

Health and Social Insurance Minister: Panagiotis Kouroumblis

Alternate Minister for Health: Andreas Xanthos

Alternate Minister for Social Insurance: Dimitris Stratoulis

Foreign Minister: Nikos Kotzias

Alternate Minister for European Affairs: Nikos Chountis

Alternate Minister for International Economic Relations: Efklidis Tsakalotos

National Defence Minister: Panos Kammenos

Alternate Minister: Costas Isychos

Deputy Minister: Nikos Toskas

Justice Minister: Nikos Paraskevopoulos

Minister of State for Combatting Corruption: Panagiotis Nikoloudis

Minister of State for Coordinating Government Operations: Alekos Flambouraris

Deputy Minister: Terens Quick

Minister of State: Nikos Pappas

Deputy Minister to the Prime Minister and Government spokesman: Gavriil Sakellaridis

Proposed Parliament President: Zoi Constantopoulou

[jaichind]

The situation is getting pretty serious.  Greek Banks have lost over 40% of their value in 3 days since SYRIZA won the Sunday elections.  Billion has been pulled out of Greek banks since November, according to Moody’s, with more withdrawals likely amid fears that the life support from the European Central Bank will be extinguished.  Greece bank-deposit withdrawals accelerated in the run-up to the Jan. 25 election, reaching $11bn. Moody’s predicts that ECB funding will rise from $84bn to $98bn this month.  Total deposits in Greek banks stood at $185bn in Nov., according to the latest available data from Bank of Greece and as I mention above it has gone down since. 

Tsipras seems to indicate they will avoid "catastrophic clashes" with creditors but also claimed he cannot disappoint the voters.  Sounds like he is trapped then.  Also the new regime froze plans to privatize the public power utility PPC. It also said it had cancelled the privatization of national train operating company Trainose and the sale of a 67-per-cent stake in the Piraeus Port - Greece's largest - for which PRC's Cosco Group and four other companies had been shortlisted.  Yes, another good way to start by angering the PRC which would be another source of funds if negotiations with EU falls apart.

The government said it would immediately pass legislation to increase the minimum wage to 751 euros per month, raise pensions for those on low incomes and rehire thousands of sacked public sector employees.  Sigh.  This will make the funding needs even more acute and make the Greek negotiation position with EU even more desperate. 

I am eager to see what takes place now and see if Tsipras backs down or takes this whole thing supernova.  I am betting on him backing down.  I am already monitoring Greek ETFs for a time to get in just when it seems the whole situation will blow up before Tsipras backs down, which I am pretty sure will come.

[jaichind]

Just so we are clear.  The FTSE/Athex Banks Index is now at 54.  In May Jun 2012 when the last Greek crisis was at its peak it was 160 at the lowest.   Greek bank funding and capital flight seems to be the biggest risk right now.

[jaichind]

Amateur Hour Keeps Traders Guessing. Bank stocks in Athens lost about $11 billion of their value after ministers in the newly formed government made some populist proclamations, namely, pledging to increase the nation’s minimum wage and halt privatizations.  Deputy Prime Minister Yiannis Dragassakis told people to essentially ignore those comments today, saying they were the product of inexperienced officials speaking out of turn. Greece is, he said, “interested in attracting investors.”

[jaichind]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-30/greece-shuns-eu-bailout-cash-before-dijsselbloem-visit

Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis set the clock ticking on Greece’s standoff with the euro area on Friday saying he’s ready to take his chances without a financial backstop rather than submit to more austerity.

Unless EU/Germany folds then we are looking at the collapse of all Greek banks without liquidity support from the ECB which will in turn will lead the the nationalization of all Greek banks and collapse of the Greek financial system.  I think in the end Tsipras will fold and come crawling back.

[jaichind]

France, US support Greece in debt battle: https://euobserver.com/political/127444

Just to balance this

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-02/tsipras-damage-control-fails-to-budge-euro-officials-on-greece

"In the past two days, officials in Berlin, Paris and Madrid have rejected the possibility of a debt writedown as they held out the prospect of easier repayment terms, an offer that has been on the table since November 2012."

[jaichind]

If Tsipras insist on some sort of debt write-down. I can propose a compromise (which I know there is no hope for anyway) which would be a debt-to-equity swap.  Since the Greece debt/GDP is 175% and the Eurozone limit is 60%, what we can do is to swap 115% of the 175% debt into equity.  That 115% can be swapped into shares which allow the owner of said shares to own part of the Greek economy.  Lets say 40% of the Greek economy can be swapped this way where that 115% of the debt is transformed into 40% ownership of the Greek economy.  All Greek income will be subject to an extra 2.5% tax to pay for dividends to said shareholders who can then buy and sell these shares.  What is good about this setup are that these shareholders will do everything possible to push up Greek income instead of just pushing the Greek government for more austerity so their debt can be repaid.  They can even end up helping and pushing for (I cannot believe I am saying this) the Greek government to reduce the size of the black economy so to overcome tax avoidance since that will only increase their dividends.  Overtime as the Greek economy recovers the Greek government can even start buying back these shares from the market.  You have to get the current debt-holders to have an economic incentive to get help grow the Greek economy.  

See

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/02/greece-politics-bonds-swap-idUSL6N0VC4GU20150202

It seems Varoufakis is proposing something somewhat similar to my compromise above he "will seek a "menu of debt swaps" including two types of new bonds - one indexed to nominal economic growth and one he called "perpetual bonds" to replace European Central Bank-owned Greek bonds "

[jaichind]

See

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/02/greece-politics-bonds-swap-idUSL6N0VC4GU20150202

It seems Varoufakis is proposing something somewhat similar to my compromise above he "will seek a "menu of debt swaps" including two types of new bonds - one indexed to nominal economic growth and one he called "perpetual bonds" to replace European Central Bank-owned Greek bonds "

Not really, since this deal has nothing to do with equity or government assets (and if Varoufakis did propose such a thing people will call for his heads). Basically, barring any inclinations of a writedown from debtors, Greece wants to renegotiate when their bonds reach maturity. The growth one basically reaches maturity at "when the Greek government can deal with it," and the perpetual ones reaches maturity at "never".

I agree.  I am saying they are similar in the sense that both my idea and his tries to link performance of the economy as a whole to the payout which could mean even higher over-payout if the Greek economy does very well down the road.

[jaichind]

Tsipras was forced to back down.  He was trying to expand the battlefield by refusing to fight on the ground of EU creditors.  He seems to have been forced to back down.  So the deal is Greece has to come back next week with what sort of reform commitments he is willing to agree to and the EU creditors will vote ya or nay on extending the bailout.  The reason he had to back off is because even though the Greek voters voted for his party, their Euros did not.  Since his election victory the Greeks pulled out a lot of Euros from the Greek banking system as well as delay paying taxes so tax receipts are falling way short of target.  This means that even if Tsipras defaults on all Greek debts he will still need external funding to stay afloat. 

There is only one outcome of this, Greek Euro exit or not. Repaying the debt or dealing with the consequences of possible default will have and it always will be on the backs of the Greek lower and middle classes.  The wealthy are wealthy for a reason, they will find ways to avoid paying, especially in the era of mobile capital.   Tsipras cannot change fundamental laws of economics.  His whole program  of relief for the lower classes was never possible other than in some minor and marginal ways.

[jaichind]

The agreement is much more limited than you seem to think in my opinion. More details here: http://openeurope.org.uk/blog/greece-bends-eurozone-will-find-short-term-agreement/

Could be.  At the core bailout extension came at the cost of concessions including a commitment to spell out reforms within two days.  The reforms would be aimed at persuading its European creditors to extend further loans. Athens received no immediate loan assistance.  Tsipras did warn Greece that "real difficulties" lie ahead.  It seems that the reforms he has to come up with by next week will deviate dramatically from what he promised in his election platform. 

[jaichind]

Daniel Gros, director of the centre for European policy studies points out:

"From a symbolic and therefore political point of view, the Greeks yielded on everything,"
"They can hope to receive nothing now... only to give,"

[jaichind]

Left Platform looks set to formally split. Or as one of their MPs put it, "the Oxi front will soon materialize politically."

That means that if Tsipras calls a snap election this fall then it's almost impossible for SYRIZA to win a majority of seats. The whole point was to do it before the rebels have time to organize a new party.

Sounds like SRYIZA will then become neo-PASOK.