Australia General Discussion

[Platypus]

Re-watching Shorten now, very very good speech.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrxAlX6aOy8

[Platypus]

I have no problem with him using it, more with his poor attempt at a denial.

[Platypus]

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-mp-george-christensen-tells-budget-complainers-to-live-like-impoverished-asians-for-perspective-20140522-38qxh.html

QUEENSLANDAH~!

[Platypus]

I'm moderately confident in predicting the Greens to hold the balance of power in the Legislative Council, but I have no idea for the LA. The extensive redistribution makes it a bit messy, but basically I reckon it comes down to the coalition needing to win seats off Labor in the country and hold onto seats in the Southeast of Melbourne (from Prahran to Frankston* to Ferntree Gully) to win, both of which are possible.

But more likely is Labor winning back a bit of the East of Melbourne. Hard to say really, but I'd say Labor has the edge at this point, but don't necessarily deserve it.

[Platypus]

It would require the ALP to accept Shaw's vote though, and that's not worth it.

[Platypus]

There are still people who don't have the troll on ignore?

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To more important matters.

Australia is now returning asylum seekers to the country from which they flee after asking four questions by phone to a boat in the middle of the ocean.

This is a great country, in many ways, but this is making me ashamed of Australia. Immigration and asylum laws are complex, and my own views are very nuanced.

But one thing is absolute - this criminal, immoral, murderous, and deeply, deeply offensive action is not something any Australian should tolerate, and it's not something the rest of the world should, either. Our name should be dragged through the mud and our reputation torn to pieces. Because this action is, unequivocally, evil.

[Platypus]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=195335.0

[Platypus]

The committee report was bythe committee set up by the old senate, in which the numbers were less coalition friendly.

That said, clearly this one isn't friendly either. I'm feeling better about being basically the only person on earth to defend Ricky Muir now

[Platypus]

Actually, they have a trigger, and Abbott has vowed to pull it in the past, so...

...is it too much to dream of a 9 month government?

[Platypus]

There IS a trigger with the carbon tax repeal bills, at least according to Latika Bourke.

And even though Abbott vowed to pull the trigger if the Senate didn't pass the repeal, obviously he won't. Partly because he'd lose the election pretty convincingly, but mainly because they'll pass next week after the House amends the bill to meet with Palmer's demands.

[Platypus]

He also pledged he'd refuse to work with the crossbenchers in the Senate, but that was never going to be upheld and was incredibly dumb from the outset.

Also dumb, he praised the honour of the Japanese in WW2. The Chinese are far from happy about that one, and so should be most Australians.

[Platypus]

Every few years I get reminded that this exists:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAOSo8XetNo

[Platypus]

In good news, the entire run of Frontline is now available on youtube:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4nQ-VbPDNeEflv_pUGXr1A

[Platypus]

In other news, the World's Most Liveable City (TM)(C) is now also The World's Friendliest City.

(tied with Auckland ew)

http://www.cntraveler.com/daily-traveler/2014/08/the-2014-friendliest-and-unfriendliest-cities-in-the-world

[Platypus]

Just to add to the liveable and friendly accolades, Melbourne wins out as sleepiest city in the world...

...wait, that doesn't sound right. Maybe 'most well rested'?




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Hmm, what else is in the news...

https://newmatilda.com/2014/08/16/abbott-brands-almost-half-scottish-population-enemies-freedom

[Platypus]

I think the key difference is that the Liberals *are* campaigning on the East West link this time around - so campaign on it without signing contracts weeks out from the election.

Not about to defend Labor, just purely a point about the Liberals, not even about the E/W link itself. If it's a major part of your campaign, let the people vote before you sign off on it.

[Platypus]

Any Liberal want to justify why we're destroying the Australian way of life for 99.999% of the population to 'defend the Australian way of life' from 0.001%?

Seriously, I get it. terrorists are very bad. But trading in the rights of the vast, vast majority of the country when we have already given various agencies a sh**tload of power, effectively, to combat a couple of hundred idiots is deeply offensive.

I know that the ALP is broadly supporting this, and they're disgusting for doing so, but this is basically Shorten not being brave enough to put more than a hair between him and the PM on 'national security'. Even so, it's a fundamentally coalition led campaign, and it is absolutely disgraceful.

Liberal my arse.

[Platypus]

If you think carefully, this discussion doesn't have anything to do with Australia at all.

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Everyone, put him on ignore, and unlike me idiotically just now, don't feel tempted to click 'show'.

[Platypus]

Here's a more current ridiculous smoking-related news story from Australia:

http://www.classicfm.com/music-news/latest-news/carmen-opera-promotes-smoking/

FFS.

[Platypus]

There's a fleet of Russian warships off the coast of Queensland ahead of the G20, and while I know I'm playing into various people's hands... I'm offended. Really offended. How dare Russia attempt to put fear into Australian hearts after our (generally idiotic) leaders refuse to roll over on the death of 38 of us after the plane was shot down.

Abbott, you pugilistic SOB, you now have my permission to eschew diplomacy and to shirtfront Putin in a way he won't forget.

[Platypus]

The mutterings I've been hearing since before the election are still floating around, although the plan isn't working.

The idea was that Abbott would get everything that the coalition has been wanting to do for 20+ years done, cop the hatred, and in late 2015/early 2016 be medically required to resign. Bishop, free of any of the electoral negatives from the Liberal ideological actions, would step up and be a moderate voice that would get them through the election with no major damage, after passing hugely unpopular measures.

Except the measures are more than hugely unpopular, and in the large part, they haven't be successfully implemented.

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Part of me wants to just call that a conspiracy, but I've heard it from a dozen sources, and sources with no links to each other. Admittedly, all but one from well and truly outside the coalition, most of them from the politically active left. It seems almost too neat. But if it ever was the plan, it's failing spectacularly.

The NSW and WA redistributions still need to happen, but basically Labor needs 21 seats, and they're not all that hard to get.

14 Within 3%:

8 NSW: Banks 1.83, Barton 0.31, Dobell 0.68 (and this was Craig Thompson's seat, so that slim margin is realistically much slimmer) , Eden-Monaro 0.61, Gilmore 2.65 (although this is an aberration I suspect), Lindsay 2.99%, Page 2.52, Reid 0.85

2 QLD: Capricornia 0.77, Petrie 0.53%

1 SA: Hindmarsh 1.89

2 TAS: Braddon 2.56, Lyons 1.22

1 NT: Solomon 1.40

10 Within 5%:

2 NSW: Macquarie 4.48, Robertson 3.00

3 VIC: Corangamite 3.94, Deakin 3.18, LaTrobe 4.01

3 QLD: Bonner 3.69, Brisbane 4.28, Forde 4.38

1 WA: Hasluck 4.87

1 TAS: Bass 4.04

Add in Bennelong which will likely become significantly more ALP friendly if the redistribution does what is expected and removes Hunter, shifting other seats down into the North of Sydney, and pushing Bennelong west, and the new WA seat which will likely come from potentially friendly areas on Western Perth (friendly in a WA relative sense), or at least make Swan and Hasluck friendlier to the ALP, and the loss of Hunter can kind of be called a wash I think. I also think the Victorian seats of Aston (8.20%), Casey (7.17%), and especially Dunkley (5.57%) are sneaky chances, as Abbott and company seem to have governed like the exact opposite of what would be wished for by Victorian moderates. That said, the Libs did manage to pick up seats in Victoria in 2013, although they lost 2010 largely because of not being able at the time to convince the people of seats like Deakin, La Trobe, and Corangamite to tolerate and trust Abbott.

It's not an easy road to travel when you require a uniform 4.3% swing against a first term government to be elected (insert asterisk for redistributions), but it's not impossible either - especially against this particular government.

[Platypus]

The problem with SA is that beyond Hindmarsh, you need really very significant swings to start looking at an of the other seats. I happen to agree that SA will be just about the worst performing state for the coalition come the next election (Victoria the other candidate), but the only other seat under 10% is Boothby (7.12, and as much a chance as Casey). Big swings to Labor in seats they already hold are distinctly possible - 7 percent plus swings in seats to the North of Adelaide (Wakefield, Port Adelaide, Makin) would not be a surprise whatsoever - but there'd have to be a very peculiar result to see the ALP gain more than 2 seats in the state, and even that's a tall order.

That said, it is seats like Boothby than could assist the ALP in going down the populist route demanded by SE Queensland and Western Sydney too heavily. Every Boothby and LaTrobe is one less Forde or Lindsay, and while LaTrobe and Lindsay have a hell of a lot in common, I tend to think  the 4.01 for LaTrobe is far more manageable than the 2.99 for Lindsay. LaTrobe can be swung without too many sweeteners, simply by reminding the voters of the ideology and incompetence of the Coalition; Lindsay will vote for whoever will stop the boats and build a train station or two. Not to say the voters in outer western Sydney are less intelligent than in outer eastern Melbourne, because that's not the case, just that the communities have different expectations from politics and politicians, and this particular government is much further from meeting those expectations in the context of Melbourne's outer East.

[Platypus]

Damn, I was hoping it was headed to Andrew Barr. He'll end up as Chief Minister I suppose?

[Platypus]

It's not the best use of his talents, though, and while the symbolism is nice and all, it doesn't really outweigh the influence he would have longer term as a senator.

[Platypus]

Very sad news.