PA 6/PA 8

[Keystone Phil]

These races will never be able to match a PA 13 race    but they're still two very interesting matchups.

PA 6 (the likely matchup) - Lois Murphy (D) vs. Jim Gerlach (R)

PA 8 (the likely matchup) - Patrick Murphy (D) vs. Mike Fitzpatrick (R)

The Murphy Team - That's right. Two Murphys running in SE PA Congressional races. Pat Murphy will do better than Schrader in PA 8 but turnout will benefit Fitz. Fitz won with 56% of the vote in 2004. Next year, he'll probably slip two points.

Lois Murphy will be the focus of much attention in 2006. Few people imagined that she'd get so close. She'll have much more money/establishment backing than she did in 2004 but, just like the PA 8 race, the Republican - Mike Fitzpatrick - will benefit from the turnout. Gerlach will end up with around 53% to Murphy's 47%

[Keystone Phil]

Aside from the current representatives, what kind of districts are they, politically speaking?

PA 8 is a pretty moderate district. Overall it's probably center-left on social issues and center-right on economics.

PA 6 is beginning to move more to the left on social issues but pretty conservative when it comes to economics.

[Keystone Phil]

Here are some links of the candidates' websites:

http://jimgerlachforcongress.com/

http://www.loismurphy.org

http://www.fitzpatrickforcongress.com/

http://www.murphy06.com/


Lois Murphy's looks kind of childish but still a nice site.

Also, for anyone who visits Politics1.com, Gunzburger messed up on the PA 6 candidates. Lois Murphy is now a declared candidate and Pat Murphy is a candidate in PA 8.

[Keystone Phil]

Pat Murphy looks like someone who will be biting the GOP on the ass for years to come. Veteran, young guy, increasingly liberal district.

He does have a future, that's for sure. He just won't beat Fitzpatrick anytime soon.

[Keystone Phil]

What kind of Democrats are the two Murphys?  Populist, liberal, DINO, etc.?

I expect Pat Murphy to be a Populist and Lois Murphy is another Allyson Schwartz.

[Keystone Phil]

What kind of Democrats are the two Murphys?  Populist, liberal, DINO, etc.?

I expect Pat Murphy to be a Populist and Lois Murphy is another Allyson Schwartz.

Yeah, Lois was the former head of NARAL.  Wow, we may end up with 3 Murphys in the PA Congressional Delegation in 2006.

Tim Murphy (R) will win re-election, Murphy has a chance but is unlikely to win and Patrick Murphy won't get more than 46%.

I wouldn't want to see Patrick or Lois in Congress (Lois would easily become one of my least favorite members of Congress) but it would be interesting to see three Murphys from the same delegation.

[Keystone Phil]

I think PA-18 leans towards Tim Murphy as well, but what kind of candidate is Sean Logan?  I can't find too much about him.

Sean Logan is a popular State Senator who will likely do better than past Dem candidates against Murphy. In 2004, Murphy's opponent got 37%. I'm betting Logan gets around 43-45%.

[Keystone Phil]

Pat Murphy is a candidate in PA 8.

Politics1 has that part right.

He just edited it. I believe he updates everything at around 11 PM every night.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, we all know I'm cheering for Lois Murphy in 2006!!!!  Another NARAL/EMILY's List person in Congress is exactly what Pennsylvania needs!  GO LOIS!!  Game on now Phil!  Don't like my signature? 

I'm kind of worried about her because she could win (and the last thing we need is another Schwartz in the House) but it's not likely to happen. I'll admit, she almost pulled off the upset of the year here in PA last year. That was her chance. 2006 won't be that great of a year for turnout (compared to 2004) so she'll go down 53-47.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, we all know I'm cheering for Lois Murphy in 2006!!!!  Another NARAL/EMILY's List person in Congress is exactly what Pennsylvania needs!  GO LOIS!!  Game on now Phil!  Don't like my signature? 

I'm kind of worried about her because she could win (and the last thing we need is another Schwartz in the House) but it's not likely to happen. I'll admit, she almost pulled off the upset of the year here in PA last year. That was her chance. 2006 won't be that great of a year for turnout (compared to 2004) so she'll go down 53-47.

You said that before about Dan Wofford in 2002.  You laughed at me for picking PA 6 as an upset in November while you picked PA 13.  Who was closer?  I was WAAAAAY closer, almost won!

How could I say something about Dan Wofford in 2002 when I didn't join until June 2004? Plus, even if this argument was brought up in the past, I never remember saying Wofford would lose by that amount. I knew that was going to be a close one. You really need to grow up.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, we all know I'm cheering for Lois Murphy in 2006!!!!  Another NARAL/EMILY's List person in Congress is exactly what Pennsylvania needs!  GO LOIS!!  Game on now Phil!  Don't like my signature? 

I'm kind of worried about her because she could win (and the last thing we need is another Schwartz in the House) but it's not likely to happen. I'll admit, she almost pulled off the upset of the year here in PA last year. That was her chance. 2006 won't be that great of a year for turnout (compared to 2004) so she'll go down 53-47.

You said that before about Dan Wofford in 2002.  You laughed at me for picking PA 6 as an upset in November while you picked PA 13.  Who was closer?  I was WAAAAAY closer, almost won!

How could I say something about Dan Wofford in 2002 when I didn't join until June 2004? Plus, even if this argument was brought up in the past, I never remember saying Wofford would lose by that amount. I knew that was going to be a close one. You really need to grow up.

When I was making an argument for Lois Murphy, you were saying she's was not going to be as close as Wofford was.

And that has nothing to do with what you said I said. I said Murphy wouldn't make it close like Wofford did. You made it seem like I predicted Wofford to do poorly, too.

[Keystone Phil]

Another veteran running against Fitz...

http://politicspa.com/Press_Releases/0610105lang.htm

http://www.electlang.com/

He says he wants to give the district back Democrats and moderates because Fitz has gotten too cozy with the far right. 

[Keystone Phil]

Very interesting stuff...

PoliticsPA.com


Robin Wiessmann Looking to Clear the 8th Congressional District Field

Multiple sources tell PoliticsPA that prominent businesswoman Robin Wiessmann is considering a run against Republican Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick.  Wiessmann, whose name has long been circulated, is said to be holding back until she can ensure a primary-free run.  Wiessmann is said to have the support of EMILY's List and a final decision on whether to enter the race will come in the next two weeks.

 

She serves as a Commissioner on the Delaware River Joint Toll Bridge Commission and  is President of Brown/Wiessmann Group, a financial consulting firm in Newtown.

 

Wiessmann is the wife of prominent Democrat Ken Jarin, a Rendell fundraiser, member of the 2002 Rendell Transition Team and partner at the law firm of Ballard Spahr.  Jarin was ranked #15 in the PoliticsPA List of Pennsylvania's most powerful unelected personalities.  A sampling of his contributions to candidates for federal office over the last few cycles includes many Democrats and Senator Arlen Specter: Biden for Senate (DE), Borski for Congress, Bowles for Senate (NC), Carper for Senate (DE), Casey for Congress, Duval for Congress (AZ), Fattah for Congress, Foley for Senate, Gilman for Congress (NY), Gore for President, Gormley for Senate (NJ), Hoeffel for Congress, Holden for Congress, Johnson for Senate (SD), Kirk for Senate (TX), Landrieu for Senate (LA), Lautenberg for Senate (NJ), Levin for Senate (MI), Lieberman 2000, Maloney for Congress (NY), Menendez for Congress (NJ), Pryor for Senate (AR), Rodham Clinton for Senate (NY), Rovner for Senate, Schwartz for Senate, Schweitzer for Senate (MT), Shaheen for Senate (NH), Specter for Senate, Stabenow for Senate (MI), Swett for Congress (NH), and Wellstone for Senate (MN).

 

Rival Democrats Patrick Murphy and Paul Lang have not indicated they will pull out.

[Keystone Phil]

Some PA 18 news...

State Senator Logan will not be running for Congress. Murphy is now very likely to win re-election in 2006. If Logan had run, this seat was seen potentially competitive race and maybe even a Dem pickup.


http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05174/527191.stm


...and news from Sherwood's district if the incumbent decides not to run again...

http://www.timesleader.com/mld/timesleader/11962987.htm

[Keystone Phil]

He's just what the democrats need for this seat. I will admit Ginny Schrader was not a good candidate, but Patrick Murphy will blow  out of the woodwork. I'm signing out for awhile however if you want to get in touch with me email me at MFabbi1@hotmail.com which I check daily. See ya Later.

Hey, Mark. I must say that someone like Murphy is probably the weakest candidate you guys can put up. Wiessman is probably the strongest possible Democratic candidate but I still see Fitzpatrick winning this race by over five points.

[Keystone Phil]

Granted Patrick Murphy will do well and likely win the NE Philly section

It certainly helps that he's from the area but Fitzpatrick had a very strong showing there last year. I believe he got close to 60%. Against Murphy, it would be a close one. Against Wiesmann, Fitz easily carries the area.

[Keystone Phil]

Granted Patrick Murphy will do well and likely win the NE Philly section

It certainly helps that he's from the area but  had a very strong showing there last year. I believe he got close to 60%. Against Murphy, it would be a close one. Against Wiesmann, Fitz easily carries the area.

Wiessman is a much stronger candidate than Ginny Schrader.  I think Wiessman would pull even in NE Philly.  Fitz's win there was attributed to the weakness of Schrader as a candidate, not his strength on the issues.  The one thing NE Philadelphians generally do is either listen to their union or church and the rest is character of candidate when going to the polls.  People here do not divulge on issues as much as we do or people in the suburbs or Center City. 

Wiessman is stronger than Schrader but her views would be the end of her in the NE part of the district. They might not divulge on the issues as much as we do but they do have some sense of what's going on. On top of that, the unions tolerate Fitzpatrick. He won't have trouble in that area.

[Keystone Phil]

That's true and I recently talked to a Young Dem Steamfitter about Fitz. Fitz, like the NE Philly State Rep delegation, is union tolerated.  That maybe a problem for us, albeit if Fitz starts voting lockstep with Santorum and Hart, they will give him problems here.  I know Fitz brought in union labor into Bucks County for construction projects no other GOPer would, but he better have a decent AFL-CIO record in Congress for him to stay there.   

I honestly don't see him having many problems with the unions. You have to remember that their main goal will be electing Casey. They won't be concerned about (nor really have the time to be) working against someone like Fitz when they really don't mind him anyway.

[Keystone Phil]

Bucks is a EMILY's List type county.  You know they will be pounding the pavement for Robin Wiessman if she got the nomination.

I have no doubt that it will be closer than 2004 but I still see Fitz winning. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't think your stereotype is the case in Bucks. They are definetley more down to earth. Don't make the people out there into people from Montco.

[Keystone Phil]

Fitz isn't a WASP...and he's from my township (actually if I were Catholic) we'd be in the same parish. And while my area isn't poor...its not crazy wealthy either.

Yeah, Fitz comes off as a very modest, easy going guy. That's something he'll have going for him if the Dems nominate Wiessman.

[Keystone Phil]

It started out as a rumor but now it seems like it could happen. Barbara Hafer is moving closer to a run against Tim Murphy in PA 18. Hafer said that she needed more time with family to consider the race and, of course, had to speak with Governor Rendell. (I guess she's not trying to hide that Rendell owns her?)

My opinion: Let the Dems run Hafer. She won't get more than 45% of the vote.

[Keystone Phil]

I hope Hafer runs for Lt. Gov., to be perfectly honest, just to shut her up for a bit.

That will hurt the Dem ticket especially out west. Knoll actually has a strong following out there (as funny as that may sound).

[Keystone Phil]

PA 6 a national bellwhether?

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/nation/3261974

[Keystone Phil]

Let it be known due to his opposition to abortion rights and other personal reasons I won't mention on here that I will not support Patrick Murphy for Congress for Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District.  My support as of right now will go to Paul Lang.

Let it also be known that I will on top of Bob Casey, Brendan Boyle, Allyson Schwartz, and Lois Murphy I will be strongly opposing Mike Fitzpatrick's re-election. 

Things must have gotten really bad personally. You knew about his Pro Life stance before but supported him now you wouldn't even vote for him if he was your nominee (if you lived in PA .

[Keystone Phil]

According to Morning Call, Ginny Schrader will be a candidate again in PA 8.