Ukraine Crisis

[Simfan34]

Perhaps in the Donbass it could be limited to active collaborators, but those in the Crimea who have declared themselves to be Russian should have their wishes respected and be treated accordingly if an when Ukraine establishes authority over the region. If you want to call that "ethnic cleansing", be my guest.

Well, you just gave the Russians the chance to deport the Tartars: you know, they have their wishes quite public as well. Many of those Russians in Crimea have lived there for generations -  quite a few have ancestors who had lived there before WWII. Besides, how are you going to distinguish those who voted for Russia from those who did not?

Fortunately, Ukrainian government is very explicit in distinguishing between active traitors: those who actively participated in the annexation - and the rest, whom it considers its citizens and whom it is trying to take care of. This is both much more morally sound - and more productive in the long term.

That is essentially what I have said.

[Simfan34]

It was sad to see the European leaders embrace Putin on the seventh as if nothing was wrong.

[Simfan34]

Ukrainian air offensive kills 1,000 rebels.

Oh.

[Simfan34]

I'm going to leave this here

[Simfan34]

I'm not.sure how weak they are with nuclear weapons, thousands of Tanks, hundreds of billionaires with expropriable assets, public opinion by all measures supporting the regime... sure, they might have poor foreign relations but both their capability to do harm is quite high and our capability (or willingness) to retaliate still seems to be limited. The USSR was a far poorer and smaller economy than the US. That did not mean they were able to pose a major threat.

The fact that only ~52% of the member states of the UN voted yes to condemn a blatantly fraudulent, deceptive, forceful, and illegal annexation of another country, which pretty much threatens every country that prefers not to be invaded by a neighbour, is proof of how much clout Russia can wield.

[Simfan34]

I'm sure they could take over the whole tthing and nothing would change.

[Simfan34]

Enlightened western-style democracy!

You're pathetic.

[Simfan34]

Putin Recalls State Duma From Vacation, "Planning Something" On Ukraine Situation

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Recognition?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-23/putin-recalls-state-duma-vacation-planning-something-ukraine-situation

[Simfan34]

NATO says Russia may be about to invade. We are approaching the six year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Georgia. It may behoove Ukraine to temporarily declare a cease fire to remove any possible pretext for Russian intervention.

It would be a sign of desperation. Russia's MO throughout this whole conflict has been to avoid open confrontation and maintain a certain level of plausible deniability- to openly invade Ukraine would be recognition their efforts were stalling.

This would be considerably more drastic than the invasion of Georgia, considering that the Abkhaz and South Ossetians had established themselves, almost entirely without outside assistance, for the better part of two decades up to that point. In contrast, the entities in the Donbas are almost entirely the product of Russian agents, enjoy at best dubious legitimacy amongst their would-be citizens, and have already managed to attract global outrage.

One wonders at what point China and other "emerging powers" will be sufficiently unsettled by Russian belligerence to call for action.

[Simfan34]

Seems like Russian disinformation.

[Simfan34]

So, the Russians sent 250 white lorries to the Ukraine border with "food" inside. A possible trojan horse, or is it for real ?

Tell them to go back where they came from.

[Simfan34]

The bastards must be stopped:

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http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/14/russian-military-vehicles-enter-ukraine-aid-convoy-stops-short-border

[Simfan34]

A country stuck between a rock and a hard place; the protesters range from naive "liberal" students to neo-Nazis. The idea that Ukrainians are a separate nation is silly, though.

ugh

[Simfan34]

And here's an English link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/ukraine-says-it-destroyed-part-of-armed-vehicles-from-russia.html

Good for them! An escalation, but necessary retaliation.

[Simfan34]

Haishenwai!

[Simfan34]

The new "prime-minister of the DNR" Zakharchenko announced today (on camera, at the meeting of the "parliament") that they just got major reinforcements: 30 tanks, 120 armored vehicles, 1200 soldiers "that have been training in Russian Federation".

[Simfan34]

The new "prime-minister of the DNR" Zakharchenko announced today (on camera, at the meeting of the "parliament") that they just got major reinforcements: 30 tanks, 120 armored vehicles, 1200 soldiers "that have been training in Russian Federation".

What makes you wonder?

They say it so blatantly?

[Simfan34]

Ukrainians march to fight the imperialist aggressors:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxFfWObjKSc

[Simfan34]

George Shultz and William Perry had a good piece in the Journal today; I completely forgot about that thing called the "Budapest Memorandum"... ugh.

[Simfan34]

The problem is, you know, all parts involved are capitalists, and they don't want to stop making business with anyone. And Western governments have stripped themselves of the powers to force them to do so. So no economic sanction of any sort (like the banning of planes, ships and so on that you proposed) will be implemented by airlines, port authorities...

As for UEFA banning : do you really think UEFA is anywhere near a politically responsible organism ? Next football World Cup is staged in Russia and you think UEFA will ban the Russian Federation ? I ask this with all the kindness I can, and sincerely : are you deluded or do you really believe the measures you propose can actually realistically be implemented ?

The truth is, nobody in the West gives a sh**t if Russia annexes Eastern Ukraine, even if it gobbles up the whole of Ukraine for that matter. As long as we don't get into a war and can do business. Munich spirit is strong.

So far, it is the French socialists that are the most willing to make trade, not war.  Especially, if that trade is in French- built assault ships.

Since you like to refer to the Munich agreements, I want to remind you that it was a failure from the UK and France to respect a military agreement with Czechoslovakia.
In the case of Crimea, it's the US and the UK who have an agreement to defend Ukraine's territorial integrity, and who are failing to respect it. So go first, we'll follow (maybe ).

I fully agree. But I am Mexican, not American. BTW, it was Mexico that was the only country to protest against the Anschluss in the League of Nations.

Not to mention the Fascist occupation of Ethiopia.

[Simfan34]

US troops head to Ukraine.

Long overdue.

[Simfan34]

"peacekeeping"

Make no mistake, this is two imperialist blocs (NATO and Russia) jockeying for control of natural gas production; Ukraine is an important proxy location as a major pipeline location. It seems now that Russia has at least the economic backing of China with their new gas deals.

This is new.

[Simfan34]

Ah, so I see you've fully embraced the "wars are fought for the sake of parasitical Capital" theory of conflict.

[Simfan34]

Putin is probably okay with being China's economic client, in that case. Russo-Chinese trade will surely increase thanks to the EU/American sanctions. China is diplomatically neutral on Ukraine because they ultimately don't care about it, but also because Russia makes a nice attack dog, because it brings the Kazakhs and Uzbeks more into Beijing's sphere, and because Russia and China both have disputes with Japan.

From where do your insights derive, oh sage? The collected faculty of my university who have long studied such things have not made pointed observations as this. Share with us the source of your powers of prognostication!

[Simfan34]

Anyways, the problem is not China, it is US, EU and NATO.

Looks like Ukraine has been sold wholesale. MM Chamberlain and Daladier are toasting from wherever they are: they are surely happy to know that 75 years later their successors have judged them right.

I struggle to see this from what I have been reading. How have you come to that conclusion? How expansive is the ceasefire? Does it pertain only to DPR and LPR forces in Ukraine, or anyone coming from anywhere (i.e. Russia) to fight the Ukrainian government? If it is the former I imagine that this would give Ukraine the freedom to retaliate against any incursions into its territory from Russia.

What is the situation on the border as of now? The Ukrainians should certainly try to get full control of the border (perhaps to prevent "ultranationalist militias from conducting attacks from Ukraine into Russia" or some sort of benign motivation. They should certainly step up (with NATO assistance) surveillance of the border; it was only through sheer luck that a reporter from the Guardian stumbled upon an armored convoy moving across the border into Russia a few weeks ago. Certainly there should be more rigorous observation.

But if Ukraine can effectively monitor the border (and preferably control it) it would have complete latitude to detect and retaliate against any incursion by "militants/volunteers/partisans" from Russia into the Ukraine... as long as Putin continues to hold the line that there are no Russian troops anywhere in the Ukraine (as he defines it- sans the Crimea). And certainly NATO could do its part to help Ukraine "secure the border", as people like to say.

It boils down a great deal to semantics, actually. In Russia the government in Kiev is presented as an illegal self-proclaimed "junta" (despite the fact it is an elected civilian administration) whose actions therefore are, at the very least, no more or less legitimate than those of the self proclaimed "People's Republics" in the Donbas.

And it of course it goes without saying that the "Self-Defence Forces" of these self proclaimed states are fighting agents of the "fascists in Kiev", or better yet, fighting actual "neo-Nazi pro-Kiev Self-Defence Forces", who are no less legitimate than the "Self-Defence Forces" of the self-proclaimed states, on top of being neo-Nazis.

But Putin said he would "respect" the results of the election, so he has at least conceded, technically speaking, that the "People's Republics" are legal fictions. Which means that Ukraine has every right to control its border with Russia.

So what I would think should be done here- again, I am making assumptions as to the details of the agreement- is that Ukraine should quickly move to monitor its border with Russia, at least far more thoroughly than it has before, and, where possible, physically secure it so to stem the flow of troops and arms into the the hands of the separatist militias. If the agreement allows for the separatists to control border posts with Russia then it would be completely useless.

A peacekeeping force of some sort (NATO? EU? OSCE?) should be authorised to "maintain the ceasefire" and, again, contain the separatist militias and block reinforcements from Russia. Ukraine should meanwhile feel free to fully retaliate against the "militants/volunteers/partisans" from Russia (who Putin continues to maintain are not at all Russian soldiers, which would mean they are actually breaking Russian law), destroy arms shipments, and arrest and try all of the "volunteers" for illegal immigration, weapons smuggling, things like that. In effect they should play along with the Russian charade, as opposed to going and using captured "volunteers" (who are of course Russian soldiers) as proof of Russian intervention. In effect, Ukraine should act as if this was a completely internal affair- denying Russia excuses to get involved without openly intervening.

I haven't seen the details of the agreement, however.  So for all I know this might not be possible.