Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[ElectionsGuy]

Jefferson Parish is like two parishes in one. One is above the river, the other is everything else.

[ElectionsGuy]

I tried to imagine a county map for this and this is what I came up with



Then I realized, this is very similar to Landrieu's 52-46 win in 2008. It looks like Louisiana is reverting back to when a sizable number of whites voted Democratic (30-40%). I tried to work out a reasonable scenario:

Whites (65%): 65% Vitter, 35% Edwards
Blacks (30%): 95% Edwards, 5% Vitter
Other (5%): 65% Edwards, 35% Vitter

Equates to 54.5% Edwards, 45.5% Vitter. Edwards needs just 28% of the white vote to win, more if black turnout isn't as good.

[ElectionsGuy]

I tried to imagine a county map for this and this is what I came up with



Then I realized, this is very similar to Landrieu's 52-46 win in 2008. It looks like Louisiana is reverting back to when a sizable number of whites voted Democratic (30-40%). I tried to work out a reasonable scenario:

Whites (65%): 65% Vitter, 35% Edwards
Blacks (30%): 95% Edwards, 5% Vitter
Other (5%): 65% Edwards, 35% Vitter

Equates to 54.5% Edwards, 45.5% Vitter. Edwards needs just 28% of the white vote to win, more if black turnout isn't as good.

I don't have Edwards winning Ouachita, but I do have him winning Rapides, Allen, Jeff Davis and Ascension

I don't think Cajun country will just unanimously swing back to him. Ouachita you're probably right on as Miles has told me, but the rest of them were >65% Romney and Cassidy. Don't think its happening.

[ElectionsGuy]

What the final stretch of the ad wars is looking like:

Vitter, as you'd expect, is going for the lowest common denominator. He has an ad attacking Obama/Edwards on Syrian refugees which uses footage of the Paris attacks.

Edwards has a direct-to-camera ad hitting back.

Finally, the anti-Vitter GumboPAC hits Vitter on his spying.

Say what you will about Vitter, but that seems like an effective ad. It is LCD, lobbying for votes based on fear, but that will tip the undecideds heavily in Vitter's favor, I think.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sabato moves it to Leans D.

Appropriate.

[ElectionsGuy]

To be honest, I want Vitter to win. I want Vitter to win to add to the drama and make things interesting. I want to see the fallout, the D reaction, and the polling industry reaction, etc. I don't think that will happen though, and I expect a Governor Edwards by next year.

[ElectionsGuy]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Edwards won by 12 or more points.

Are you a contrarian?

[ElectionsGuy]

Any results from anywhere yet

Polls don't close until 8:00 CST.

[ElectionsGuy]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Edwards won by 12 or more points.

Are you a contrarian?

I'm still sticking with my 52-48 Edwards prediction, just saying that it wouldn't surprise me at all.
I also think Nungesser will win 55-45.

OK, but are you? I'm a little bit of a contrarian myself.

[ElectionsGuy]

I maintain my 55-45 Vitter win prediction and will continue to do so even after the election is over (any Edwards victory will be tantamount to voter fraud).

Stop trolling truthing, please.

Literally no one in here values your posts.

No one here values your insults.

[ElectionsGuy]

Why is AoS trying to be so edgy (literally) with its election map? That really isn't necessary.

Its a little messed up too. La Salle county is huge on there, and its a tiny (but very Republican) county.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm loving the livestream right now. Miles's accent is awesome and (to me) unexpectedly strong.

[ElectionsGuy]

So they projected Edwards winning already. Damn.

[ElectionsGuy]

There's a 30 point difference between Governor and Lt Governor. So based on current results Nungesser would have to get 65% for Vitter to even tie.

[ElectionsGuy]

LOL At this rate, Nungesser might lose.

Wow, any chance Edwards hits 60?

Definitely possible.

They just called it for him.

[ElectionsGuy]

18% in, and Edwards is winning 59-41.

[ElectionsGuy]

East Carroll, an 80% R county usually, is only going 65% Vitter. Concede!

[ElectionsGuy]

Vitter leading Jefferson 52-48. 61-39 Vitter in Livingston...

[ElectionsGuy]

Landry looks like he'll defeat Caldwell in the Attorney General race.

[ElectionsGuy]

East Carroll, an 80% R county usually, is only going 65% Vitter. Concede!

I believe you mean West Carroll.

Yeah, oops.

[ElectionsGuy]

AP finally calls it for Edwards, and Nungesser.

[ElectionsGuy]

Allen county finalized in Cajun country, Edwards won 55-45. Went 69% Romney.

[ElectionsGuy]

Edwards leading 54-46 with 68% in. Nungesser up 58-42, and AP called AG for Landry with him leading 57-43.

[ElectionsGuy]

Akin'd

[ElectionsGuy]

Vitter just announced in his concession speech that he for sure won't be running next year.

Holy hell