Scottish independence referendum 2017?

[Cassius]

I would make one point - obviously, I'm no expert on the Scottish economy and someone else may be able to correct me on this - if Scotland should choose to leave the UK, assuming we've left the EU, then they'll be leaving the economic area with which they do nearly two thirds of their trade (I think this is the correct figure as of about 2014) for an economic area with which they do roughly 15% (indeed, it's ironic that one of the most heavily Remain areas of the UK actually does less trade with the EU than the country as a whole). Undoubtedly, again, assuming we actually do leave the EU, the Scots will have to work out some trade deal with us.

Now, I'm not saying 'ermagerd Scotland can't leave UK cos teh trade'; undoubtedly, there are a lot of other issues in play (for example, the funding Scotland receives from the EU), but it would be rather ironic if, in order to remain a member of one trading bloc, Scotland walked out of by far its  export market.

[Cassius]

I would make one point - obviously, I'm no expert on the Scottish economy and someone else may be able to correct me on this - if Scotland should choose to leave the UK, assuming we've left the EU, then they'll be leaving the economic area with which they do nearly two thirds of their trade (I think this is the correct figure as of about 2014) for an economic area with which they do roughly 15% (indeed, it's ironic that one of the most heavily Remain areas of the UK actually does less trade with the EU than the country as a whole). Undoubtedly, again, assuming we actually do leave the EU, the Scots will have to work out some trade deal with us.

Now, I'm not saying 'ermagerd Scotland can't leave UK cos teh trade'; undoubtedly, there are a lot of other issues in play (for example, the funding Scotland receives from the EU), but it would be rather ironic if, in order to remain a member of one trading bloc, Scotland walked out of by far its  export market.

Ah, but Scotland has this cake you see, it's a sort of shortbread type thing, that you can buy at airports, that is very popular in England.

And the English are still going to want to buy that cake.

The English are still going to trade with Europe - including Scotland. The main difference will be that the English will no longer have an input in formulating European policies, and would have to accept them wholesale, while the Scots will be on the inside, participating in setting the agenda. That is all.

Well, they'll get to participate, but as one of 28 states, and a small one at that (they'll have a maximum of around 13 MEP's, which is more than they have now but not a lot more). I doubt they'll be able to exercise the same level of influence that we have (and note that our influence, such as it was, was directed almost entirely towards stymying attempts to integrate the Union, rather than applying an agenda across it).

[Cassius]

Scotland could get all the migrating banks tbh

Doubt it, if citygeddon (which may or may not happen, only a couple of banks have announced they'll move their operations) takes place they're much more likely to head to Dublin or Frankfurt, which are already far better established as financial centres and have unquestioned EU status.

I would make one point - obviously, I'm no expert on the Scottish economy and someone else may be able to correct me on this - if Scotland should choose to leave the UK, assuming we've left the EU, then they'll be leaving the economic area with which they do nearly two thirds of their trade (I think this is the correct figure as of about 2014) for an economic area with which they do roughly 15% (indeed, it's ironic that one of the most heavily Remain areas of the UK actually does less trade with the EU than the country as a whole). Undoubtedly, again, assuming we actually do leave the EU, the Scots will have to work out some trade deal with us.

Now, I'm not saying 'ermagerd Scotland can't leave UK cos teh trade'; undoubtedly, there are a lot of other issues in play (for example, the funding Scotland receives from the EU), but it would be rather ironic if, in order to remain a member of one trading bloc, Scotland walked out of by far its  export market.

Ah, but Scotland has this cake you see, it's a sort of shortbread type thing, that you can buy at airports, that is very popular in England.

And the English are still going to want to buy that cake.

The English are still going to trade with Europe - including Scotland. The main difference will be that the English will no longer have an input in formulating European policies, and would have to accept them wholesale, while the Scots will be on the inside, participating in setting the agenda. That is all.

Well, they'll get to participate, but as one of 28 states, and a small one at that (they'll have a maximum of around 13 MEP's, which is more than they have now but not a lot more). I doubt they'll be able to exercise the same level of influence that we have (and note that our influence, such as it was, was directed almost entirely towards stymying attempts to integrate the Union, rather than applying an agenda across it).

Well, true, they will have less influence than what you had - but they will have infinitely more influence than what you have now and will have in the future. And they will apply that influence towards making you yield on things that matter for them.

So, I am looking forward to seeing signs on Scottish roads saying things like: "built with the support of the EU, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and the United Kingdom of Small Britain and Belfast Suburbus" And, yep, you will pay for this - voluntarily, and singing:)

Well, maybe, we'll have to see . On the other hand, the Scots may be in the EU, but they'll be so small as to be practically invisible - we've already seen how countries of a similar size (Ireland and Greece) fair in their attempts to make EU institutions see their way.

[Cassius]

So... lets get this straight - Sturgeon is launching a campaign to secede from the UK on the basis of the UK withdrawing from the EU... in order to 'protect' Scotland from Brexit, in spite of the fact that we are a much bigger trading partner for Scotland and are far more closely legally entwined with them than we are with the EU. All this amidst Scotland's oil revenues circling the drain, Scottish support for independence lukewarm and the continued presence of Mariano Rajoy, no fan of Scottish independence, at the helm of the Spanish government. Remind me again how the SNP are the sensible level-headed pragmatists here.