Kerry up by 12 points in Minnesota

[© tweed]

riiiiiight.  No way Kerry is up 12 in Minnesota.

[© tweed]

He's a hell of a lot more popular than Bush here, let me tell you that.

That's what everybody says.  80% of people who took the exit poll in TX thought Kerry would win there come November.

[© tweed]

Woo-hoo!!!  I knew Bush couldn't take this state.

He will.  Mark my words.

[© tweed]

I don't trust this poll.

I don't either.  Any polls that has John Kerry up 12 in a battleground is waaaaaayyyy off.

[© tweed]

I don't trust this poll.

I don't either.  Any polls that has John Kerry up 12 in a battleground is waaaaaayyyy off.

Not just that, but it really goes against my intuition and ALL of the political data that you can find on the state.

Well don't make the mistake of using 2002 as a Minnesota barometer, Coleman won because of Wellstone's death and the Gov won because of the MN Grssroots.

[© tweed]

Bush will win Minnesota.  End of story.

[© tweed]

With bush tacking 5 or more % on to his national total, he will pick up alot of states.  I say nationally it will be 54-45% in favor of bush.

[© tweed]

I think WV will go our way, I just do.  They coal miners are gonna vote this year, as Kerry is skilled at holding two contradicting positions on issues.

[© tweed]

Let me show you how much people "know" about how their home states will vote.

Texas Exit poll (done day of 3/9 TX Primary):

Will Kerry beat Bush in TX?

Very likely 43%
Somewhat Likely 35%

----

Mississippi Exit Poll (done day of 3/9 MS Primary):

Will Kerry beat Bush in MS?

Very Likely 47%
Somewhat Likely 32%

---

So as you can see, people are optimistic fruitcakes.  79% of MS Dems think Kerryy will win the state.

[© tweed]

this poll is whack

Lets here something about the methodology before we dismiss it like that shall we….

Ok, relax, everybody take a deep breath here... It's prozac time....

Point 1:

30 weeks out polling just doesn't work all that well.

Point 2:

This was a "likely voter" poll taken right smack in the middle of the Richard Clarke matter - of course Democrats "were paying a lot of attention" to the race, and "following closely" and all the other likely voter screening questions....

Given the timing and methodology, A big spike for Kerry 30 weeks out is entirely predictable....

I have Kerry leading by low to mid single digits, this poll is a blip....

If you took another poll this weekend of "likely voters" on the heels of 308,000 jobs Bush would show a "spike"...  It wouldn't mean anything either...

It's 30 weeks out folks..

Change your signature.

[© tweed]

this poll is whack

Lets here something about the methodology before we dismiss it like that shall we….

Ok, relax, everybody take a deep breath here... It's prozac time....

Point 1:

30 weeks out polling just doesn't work all that well.

Point 2:

This was a "likely voter" poll taken right smack in the middle of the Richard Clarke matter - of course Democrats "were paying a lot of attention" to the race, and "following closely" and all the other likely voter screening questions....

Given the timing and methodology, A big spike for Kerry 30 weeks out is entirely predictable....

I have Kerry leading by low to mid single digits, this poll is a blip....

If you took another poll this weekend of "likely voters" on the heels of 308,000 jobs Bush would show a "spike"...  It wouldn't mean anything either...

It's 30 weeks out folks..

Change your signature.

What don't you like...?

It takes up too much screen space.

[© tweed]

Could anyone tell me how to down size my map?

There is a YaBB way to do it, but I just did it in-house and uploaded it.

[© tweed]

MAke it 251x155 that makes it proportional.

[© tweed]

Thanks Boss

No problem Mr. Gonna lose his home state come june soulty.