Democratic Acela Corridor Tuesday results thread (all polls close at 8pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

Overview of all results: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

Polls in all five states close at 8pm.

Connecticut, Maryland, and Pennsylvania will all have exit polls.  Delaware and Rhode Island will not.

At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:10 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until all the polls have closed in the state.

Connecticut
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ct/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/connecticut

Delaware
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/de/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/delaware

Maryland
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/md/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/maryland

Pennsylvania
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/pa/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/pennsylvania

Rhode Island
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ri/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/rhode-island

[Mr. Morden]

From Twitter...people in line in Maryland, waiting for the polls to open (this pic is from 2 hours ago, to the polls are open now):

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-democratic-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=38655223

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[Mr. Morden]

For the record, the 2012 Democratic electorate in the general election was:

MD: 46% White, 39% Black, 9% Latino, 6% Other
CT: 60% White, 19% Black, 11% Latino, 10% Other
PA: 70% White, 25% Black, 5% Other

Going to be a blackbath in MD; much blacker than even the 2012 presidential. CT & PA are substantially whiter and/or less black than the general, though.

Wouldn't you expect a Democratic primary to be blacker than a general election, since blacks go overwhelmingly for the Dems?

[Mr. Morden]

Exit poll discussion on Fox:

http://video.foxnews.com/v/4864634121001/early-look-at-exit-poll-data-from-super-tuesday-iii-states/

Does Clinton have a better shot than Sanders against Trump in a GE?:

MD: 73%
PA: 64%
CT: 63%

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

PA exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

Clinton 54%
Sanders 45%

[Mr. Morden]

CT exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

Clinton 50%
Sanders 47%

MD exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

Clinton 64%
Sanders 33%

[Mr. Morden]

PA by race:

whites:
Clinton 51%
Sanders 48%

blacks:
Clinton 70%
Sanders 30%

CT by race:

whites:
Sanders 51%
Clinton 47%

blacks:
Clinton 69%
Sanders 29%

MD by race:

whites:
Clinton 54%
Sanders 42%

blacks:
Clinton 73%
Sanders 25%