Mississippi 2015 Megathread

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My understanding is that Cochran only ran in 2014 because the top GOPers wanted to handpick the next senator (in this scenario Cochran retires mid-term and Bryant appoints somebody, similar to Lott retiring mid-term in 2007). Maybe not though, the farm bill note is a good point. When Cochran steps down, I feel like Pickering would definitely run, he was prepared to run if Cochran didn't. Also think Hosemann is very interested in a possible Senate bid.

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Do you guys think Chris McDaniel will run for Senate again at some point?

Eh, I don't know for sure. Rumor is he'll run for the MS-04 slot next spring against Palazzo. I think the Tea Party will put someone up against Wicker in 2018 (Wicker is right of Cochran, but would be easier to beat in a primary). If not McDaniel, it could be someone like Michael Watson from Pascagoula.

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Mississippi's internal politics in the GOP are so of the more interesting ones in the deep south

Definitely. There are no big statewide establishment/tea party battles this year in the primary (unless you're counting the LG race where incumbent Reeves should win around 70-75% of the vote) but if the Tea Party can win some of these house or senate races it would be big for that wing of the Mississippi GOP.

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Yeah there's no point of me voting in the Democrat primary even though my views align more with them compared to the GOP. County politics where I'm from are dominated by the GOP (rare in Mississippi) and all the local races will be involving Republicans. Not to mention that the GOP has multiple competitive statewide races compared to the Democrats where the races should be blowouts.

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MHB could do pretty well on the Coast too, lot of those folks are mad at how he handled the coastal preserves program thing down there.

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That's great, Wilemon really stand outs in that chart. Of course that district (Tish and Itawamba counties) has a strong Dixiecrat background.

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Whats the deal with the republican in the 54% black district?

Buck Clarke is a popular CPA with good relationships among the Black community and he's chairman of the Senate Approps Committee.  Everyone literally loves the guy.  No serious Black candidate bothers to run in that district because he's locked-up support from all of the big, Black churches and city/county officials.   

Interesting. Was the district whiter when he was first elected? That has to be the only district in the country like that I would think.

IIRC it was a little whiter prior to redistricting (something like 49-50% black). This year he has a former state senator from Yazoo City running against him in the general so it should be a good race.

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Yeah, that's not good for Pickering.

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My understanding is that Mayor Mary is legitimately insane. Who knows though.

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Ha, yeah. I thought the same thing. Mississippi electing an open lesbian to statewide office would be something.

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My understanding is that Mayor Mary is legitimately insane. Who knows though.

She couldn't have her outstanding mayoral record if she were totally insane.

And even if she were, it wouldn't change the fact that this looks really bad for Pickering. Remember, the auditor of all people has to be even cleaner than any other office -- if a different state officer had done this, it would be Pickering's job to nail him. We'll see what the investigation produces, but from what we've seen so far, Pickering should no longer be able to serve as Auditor. He shouldn't just drop out of the race, he should resign and hire a good expensive lawyer.

Another interesting thought I've had is what if Pickering still pulls it out on August 4 and then heads to jail this fall? I know parties can replace the nominee if he/she dies, but surely they can't if the person is disqualified due to crimes? If so, think about all the positive national news stories if Mississippi elects a lesbian (and not just a lesbian -- the plaintiff in the Mississippi gay marriage suit) to statewide office!

If there is a libertarian or consititution party candidate on the ballot, MS would probably vote for them over an open lesbian.

Think the Reform has someone in.

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Looks like the candidate is a Hattiesburg Walmart employee, appears she is white.

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Philip Gunn speaking at Neshoba on Thursday. That'll be fun.

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These are the counties to watch for next Tuesday, together they made around 80% of the GOP primary vote in 2011.

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Yes, below are some maps of how the primary vote has evolved in statewide elections. Red counties are where the GOP primary vote was larger than the Dem primary vote. (Note: Hinds County has a large GOP vote total but is not in red because of large black population that votes in Dem primary which outnumbers GOP total)

1999



2003



2007



2011

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Not related to statewide races, but is Mississisppi related. Jeb Bush wins Neshoba straw poll. 230 total participants.

Full results: http://neshobademocrat.com/main.asp?FromHome=1&TypeID=1&ArticleID=36376&SectionID=63&SubSectionID=493

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Most of those are reasonable, except Fitch/McRae is going to be close (within 10 points, most likely) and I think Johnson beats Barr by around 30-40 points. And Slater will win easily, but I think Short finishes 2nd behind her.

Also: Clarion Ledger has endorsed Hawkins-Butler: http://www.clarionledger.com/longform/opinion/editorials/2015/08/01/2015-primary-endorsements/30986443/

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Those predictions look good, DT, although I still think Fitch wins in a nailbiter.

Some legislative races I'll be watching (in addition to some listed earlier)

Any DeSoto County race involving a Tea Partier (SD1, HD7, HD24, HD25, HD28, HD40)
SD43 GOP: Incumbent Phillip Gandy vs Rep. Dennis Debar
SD21 Dem: Kenny Wayne Jones (inc.) vs Barbara Blackmon
SD37 GOP: Tea Party incumbent Sojourner (McDaniel campaign manager) drew 2 challengers in primary
SD10 Dem: Two incumbents Bill Stone vs Steve Hale
HD35 GOP: Incumbent Joey Hood vs Tea Party Brian Sims
HD58 GOP: Open seat in Madison between ultra-conservative Joel Bomgar and Bruce Bartley

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Any idea on who is backing who in the treasurer race? It's my understanding that Reeves is behind McRae but unsure who the Barbour machine and Bryant are supporting.

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Results for tonight can be found here: http://www.msnewsnow.com/category/264916/election-results

All statewide and legislative primaries along with some local races in select counties.

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1.What time do the polls close?
2.Will any radio stations be covering this?

7 and WLOX TV in Biloxi will be doing some coverage that they will stream online.

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AP is doing all races + providing county results.

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Oops. I meant to link it in my previous post.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_county/MS_Page_0804.html?SITE=MSJADELN&SECTION=POLITICS

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I still think she's crazy, but I did vote for MHB today. More of a protest vote against Pickering than anything.