OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[BuckeyeNut]

I've heard it second hand from a reliable source than Kucinich is going to announce a Gubernatorial run within the next week. Not sure I by it, since I can't find it substantiated anywhere in speculation, but ... it's fun, so I thought I'd throw it out there.

I thought Kucinich moved to Washington?

Perhaps. I'm sure he still has residency and votes in Ohio.

In other news: Rep. Renacci is launching a statewide ad-buy this weekend, indicating he's serious about running for higher office of some kind; while State Sen. (and rumored SOS candidate) LaRose is going to D.C. to help out with the logistics of Trump's inauguration.

[BuckeyeNut]

State Rep. and potential-SOS candidate Kathleen Clyde (D-Kent) has travelled to DC to take part in the Women's March.

[BuckeyeNut]

Renacci vs. Kucinich would be the damnedest thing.

[BuckeyeNut]

I've heard it second hand from a reliable source than Kucinich is going to announce a Gubernatorial run within the next week. Not sure I by it, since I can't find it substantiated anywhere in speculation, but ... it's fun, so I thought I'd throw it out there.

oh god the terror

Don't worry, he'll get killed in the primary.

He's certainly making a pitch to Trump voters. It's also now past the one-week timetable I mentioned previously, though my source did actually say two weeks. It would still be a surprise if he did run.

Auditor Dave Yost made his AG race official today. Rumors are Rep. Renacci will declare for governor within a month

Yost is probably the least known of the row officers, and the worst campaigner. Pillich got a little lucky with Mandel, given how hated he was, but John Patrick Carney put up a good fight in '14. Even if we lose the Governor's race, I'm hopeful we can take back the AG-post.

[BuckeyeNut]

Auditor Dave Yost made his AG race official today. Rumors are Rep. Renacci will declare for governor within a month

Yost is probably the least known of the row officers, and the worst campaigner. Pillich got a little lucky with Mandel, given how hated he was, but John Patrick Carney put up a good fight in '14. Even if we lose the Governor's race, I'm hopeful we can take back the AG-post.

Yost was the least known, but no one the democrats have ID'd as a possibility is better known or even as known, throw in Yost's big cash on hand number he declared with, it will be an uphill battle. Democrats have better shot at Auditor and Treasurer where name ID and money will be a much level playing field.

If I were to rank the Ohio races(as of today) in order of likelihood of switching parties (from most to least likely) I'd go:
Auditor
Treasurer
Secretary of State
Attorney General
US Senate
Governor

Yost is better known now, but he's still not well known, by any means. Money's the bigger problem, but Dettelbach should be able to play the fundraising network well--he and Obama played basketball together at Harvard. Also, Auditor will be a much harder race to win, even with its low name ID/monetary expectations given Faber is likely running. But maybe he'll challenge Yost. Still too early to say.

Meanwhile, The Plain Dealer has taken an interesting look at the ramifications of Taylor's betrayal, and this year's Cleveland mayoral election could get ugly with the SEUI making its first ever endorsement in the race. Also, while with Gabbard in the Middle East, Kucinich met with Assad.

[BuckeyeNut]

Auditor Dave Yost made his AG race official today. Rumors are Rep. Renacci will declare for governor within a month

Yost is probably the least known of the row officers, and the worst campaigner. Pillich got a little lucky with Mandel, given how hated he was, but John Patrick Carney put up a good fight in '14. Even if we lose the Governor's race, I'm hopeful we can take back the AG-post.

Yost was the least known, but no one the democrats have ID'd as a possibility is better known or even as known, throw in Yost's big cash on hand number he declared with, it will be an uphill battle. Democrats have better shot at Auditor and Treasurer where name ID and money will be a much level playing field.

If I were to rank the Ohio races(as of today) in order of likelihood of switching parties (from most to least likely) I'd go:
Auditor
Treasurer
Secretary of State
Attorney General
US Senate
Governor

Yost is better known now, but he's still not well known, by any means. Money's the bigger problem, but Dettelbach should be able to play the fundraising network well--he and Obama played basketball together at Harvard. Also, Auditor will be a much harder race to win, even with its low name ID/monetary expectations given Faber is likely running. But maybe he'll challenge Yost. Still too early to say.

Meanwhile, The Plain Dealer has taken an interesting look at the ramifications of Taylor's betrayal, and this year's Cleveland mayoral election could get ugly with the SEUI making its first ever endorsement in the race. Also, while with Gabbard in the Middle East, Kucinich met with Assad.

Dettelbach may not even be the candidate (I think it will be schiavoni who is the better one)

All the rumors I'm hearing is that Faber is not running for auditor as money players are trying to clear the GOP field for Mingo, and Faber may be angling for the speaker slot. Faber is also much lesser known than even Yost and won't have the money. With the thin bench on the D side I think AG and Governor are uphill battles, but treasurer and auditor are wide open. SOS is a different animal, if Alicia Reese or Kathleen Clyde face off against LaRose both will probably lose, against Pelanda they both could win.

Most everything is speculative at this point, but being the first one in will be a boon. It's hard to read Ryan, but at this point, I doubt he'll actually jump in. His action in challenging Pelosi shows some fire has been lit under him, but he's always on the fence about running for higher office. At this juncture, early as it is, I find it likely he's gunning for high House leadership in the future, and Schiavoni will actually wind up running for Governor.

Mingo could make a run for Auditor, I suppose, but he's only one of the two county-wide Republicans down in Franklin County, and the OHGOP might be reluctant to give that up. That said, Speaker Rosenberger will be term-limited out of the State House in '19 (at the tender age of 38, no less), so Faber certainly has the option.

[BuckeyeNut]

Schiavoni, in an interview with the Youngstown Vindcator clarified the only statewide position he wants is Governor, although he also said he would run for Ryan's seat if he ran.

Further indication, I think, that Schiavoni announced so early. It puts pressure on Ryan to get off the pot.

[BuckeyeNut]

A new poll shows AG Mike DeWine leading in a 4-way primary against Lt. Gov Taylor, SOS Husted, and Rep. Renacci.

DeWine 47%; Husted 18%; Taylor 10%; Renacci 4%. 22% undecided. In a two-way, DeWine leads Husted 55%-45%.

As for name recognition, DeWine has 95% name recognition, while 33% of respondents didn't know Husted, 57% didn't know Taylor, and 71% didn't know Renacci. They also tested some non-Gubernatorial contenders. 81% of respondents didn't know former Senate President Faber, 86% didn't know Speaker Rosenberger, and 54% don't know Yost, either.

[BuckeyeNut]

As it said in the Dispatch, his intention to run was, "the worst-kept secret in Ohio politics."

It would be really dumb for Mingo to primary him.

[BuckeyeNut]

As it said in the Dispatch, his intention to run was, "the worst-kept secret in Ohio politics."

It would be really dumb for Mingo to primary him.

There was a lot of talk about him not running for auditor and angling for speaker, he's not particularly well liked. As for Mingo primarying him... Is it dumb? Will Faber be able to raise any money without the senate presidency?

Faber certainly has more statewide contacts from his time as Senate President, so, probably.

Speaking of money, both DeWine and Husted have $2.5 million in the bank, as of the latest filing. Interestingly, Husted had a mere $900 more than DeWine, even though DeWine voluntarily reported half a million dollars raised in January. Taylor, meanwhile, has a little under $1 million in the bank.

Democratic fundraising for potential gubernatorial candidates is comparatively pitiful. Schiavoni has ~$40,000 in the bank, while Connie Pillich is sitting on $425,000; only half of which was raised this year.

As for the down-ballot candidates, Yost has $1 million in the bank, while Dettelbach has $250,000; all of which it seems he raised since November. Faber has $600,000 in the bank.

[BuckeyeNut]

Because they've traditionally fit the Kasich model?

ION: While she has to seek re-election this year, Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley has expressed serious interest in running for Governor.

[BuckeyeNut]

Montgomery County actually went for Trump in 2016, the first time the county has gone Republican since Reagan. While the district is theoretically one of the most competitive by PVI (though that needs re-calculating), Mike Turner is an incredibly popular incumbent. Unless he does something drastic, it's not a particularly good pick-up opportunity until his retirement.

Additionally, while Whaley has been talked up as potential Congressional candidate in the past, she seems more interested in serving as an executive.

[BuckeyeNut]

Based on White House statements about the CFPB, Richard Cordray might be back in Ohio sooner rather than later.

I wonder if he will get the support, he's easily the best D candidate not named Ryan, will progressives back him with his pro gun record?

While that proved to be a problem in this past Senate primary, Cordray never cut an ad on his sportsmanlike appreciation of gun culture and NRA rating; which Strickland did in 2010. That said, he might face backlash in Franklin County due to his tangential alliance with the Scott campaign for Mayor of Columbus.

[BuckeyeNut]

Based on White House statements about the CFPB, Richard Cordray might be back in Ohio sooner rather than later.

I wonder if he will get the support, he's easily the best D candidate not named Ryan, will progressives back him with his pro gun record?

While that proved to be a problem in this past Senate primary, Cordray never cut an ad on his sportsmanlike appreciation of gun culture and NRA rating; which Strickland did in 2010. That said, he might face backlash in Franklin County due to his tangential alliance with the Scott campaign for Mayor of Columbus.

Cordrey backed Zach Scott?  Gross. 

That's disappointing, to say the least!

Cordray didn't back Scott, but they share infrastructure (also with Jennifer Brunner). The internal politics of the FCDP are an utter mess.

[BuckeyeNut]

State House Majority Leader, Rep. Dorothy Palanda is announcing a run for SOS soon.

[BuckeyeNut]

State House Majority Leader, Rep. Dorothy Palanda is announcing a run for SOS soon.

LaRose vs. Palanda could get pretty ugly.

I expect it will. The D side could get very ugly as well with Alicia Reese and Kathleen Clyde

I'm still somewhat skeptical Reece will actually jump in.

[BuckeyeNut]

State House Majority Leader, Rep. Dorothy Palanda is announcing a run for SOS soon.

LaRose vs. Palanda could get pretty ugly.

I expect it will. The D side could get very ugly as well with Alicia Reese and Kathleen Clyde

I'm still somewhat skeptical Reece will actually jump in.

I'm a bit skeptical too, but she's got no where else to go.

State Senate might be an option, and she could always return to Cincinnati City Politics. Previously, Reece did serve as Vice Mayor

[BuckeyeNut]

State House Majority Leader, Rep. Dorothy Palanda is announcing a run for SOS soon.

LaRose vs. Palanda could get pretty ugly.

I expect it will. The D side could get very ugly as well with Alicia Reese and Kathleen Clyde

I'm still somewhat skeptical Reece will actually jump in.

I'm a bit skeptical too, but she's got no where else to go.

State Senate might be an option, and she could always return to Cincinnati City Politics. Previously, Reece did serve as Vice Mayor

Cecil Thomas is on his first term. Reece isn't going to step down for the mess that is Cincy local politics. She could go back anyway since local elections would be during '19. If she's ever going to run now is her time and Clyde is not a powerhouse.

Maybe, maybe not. She could also challenge Chris Monzel for County Commissioner, which is a step up from city politics. Having unilateral control of the Hamilton County Commission would be quite something for Democrats.

[BuckeyeNut]

It would be a boon to Democrats if we wound up with Pelanda v. LaRose and Klyde just went through to the general unencumbered.

In Other News: Tim Ryan is saying he'll make a decision in the "next couple of weeks" and has been keeping Schiavoni and Williams "in the loop." When asked if he thought his flirting would hurt his future prospects, the Congressman stated, "No. I'm only 43. A lot of people start their political careers when they're 43."

What that all means, I don't know. I think this means he's leaning toward staying in the House. Running for minority leader was the first time Ryan actually did run for higher office, and even if he won't be Speaker for a long time, as Ranking on Appropriations, he's in for a nice gig whenever Democrats finally take the House back. He certainly seems unaffected by Congressman Stivers (R-Upper Arlington) and the NRCC's decision to target his seat.

In Other, Other News: In an anti-sanctuary city event that actually put Kasich in alignment with Trump and Mandel, Kasich stated he would still support Lt. Gov. Taylor in a Gubernatorial primary.

[BuckeyeNut]

Hasn't Ryan done this in every election cycle?

I really don't see why he'd want to stay in the House. I understand not challenged Kasich in 2014, and Portman would have been tough but he has to eventually give one of the offices a shot right?

Not really. Ryan could easily wind up in the mold of Kaptur, that is to say, a House lifer. He got into a safe Congressional seat at the age of 29, what's his actual incentive to seek statewide office? He will, eventually, be Chairman of the Appropriations Committee if he sticks around, or he could wind up as Speaker.

[BuckeyeNut]

A new piece in The Plain Dealer notes that, if Renacci does run for Governor, that Republicans Frank LaRose and Mary Taylor live in the district, as well as former Democratic Congresswoman Betty Sutton; who put up a good fight against Renacci in 2012.

[BuckeyeNut]

Tim Ryan just endorsed Jaime Harrison for DNC Chair on his Facebook.

[BuckeyeNut]

Dettelbach did a 25-minute sit-down interview on the Ohio Democratic Podcast.

[BuckeyeNut]

Hasn't Ryan done this in every election cycle?

I really don't see why he'd want to stay in the House. I understand not challenged Kasich in 2014, and Portman would have been tough but he has to eventually give one of the offices a shot right?

Not really. Ryan could easily wind up in the mold of Kaptur, that is to say, a House lifer. He got into a safe Congressional seat at the age of 29, what's his actual incentive to seek statewide office? He will, eventually, be Chairman of the Appropriations Committee if he sticks around, or he could wind up as Speaker.

I think speakership is pretty likely. The Progressives are getting much stronger than before, and when the Democrats retake the House there may be a lot of pressure on the Representatives to choose a Speaker paltable to their base. Ryan would be a leading candidate. I do think though, that even a failed run for Governor, if he campaigns decently, could keep him popular and increase his name ID. That would be a net positive.

If he runs for governor he's not getting that seat back. There are two popular Ds salavating for him to step aside.

He wouldn't get his seat back, but depending how it went, he could challenge Portman in 2022. Though again, I think he's staying put at this point.

[BuckeyeNut]

To contradict some points I made in conversation with Chickenhawk, there is a possibility that it's about race. Say, if Nina Turner runs for Governor or something. And in the press conference where Ryan endorsed Harrison, so did Congresswoman Fudge.

Meanwhile, Mayor Whaley and Governor Strickland have endorsed Buttigieg.

So far the only Ohio DNC member on the record for Perez is ODP Chair Pepper.