absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Dr. Arch]

VA is gone (of course):

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No surprises there.

[Dr. Arch]

Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp  3h3 hours ago
More latinos have voted in Florida as of now than in the entire 2012 election, Clinton campaign says

Wait what?

Trump is gonna get schlonged in FL.

[Dr. Arch]

we are on a roll.


Judge: NC counties must restore voters removed from rolls
http://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2016-11-04/judge-nc-counties-must-restore-voters-removed-from-rolls

Wonderful! Add several thousands to the D column.

[Dr. Arch]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

I WAS REFERRING TO EARLY VOTING, not all white turnout.

Ok so.....

If were expecting 70% or so of all ballots cast by end of early voting, and am not aware of other numbers to use, seems like a decent comparison imo

Actually, the White share of FL this cycle is expected to be around 67%, rather than 70%, I remember reading.

[Dr. Arch]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

I WAS REFERRING TO EARLY VOTING, not all white turnout.

Ok so.....

If were expecting 70% or so of all ballots cast by end of early voting, and am not aware of other numbers to use, seems like a decent comparison imo

Actually, the White share of FL this cycle is expected to be around 67%, rather than 70%, I remember reading.

Rather, I think his point is that 70% of all people will vote early, so distinguishing between early voters only and all voters won't actually be a big difference.

Yes, that was my initial point

Oh, gotcha

[Dr. Arch]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  1m1 minute ago
Turnout just went over 49,300. Hundreds still in line at some polling places, including high Hispanic areas. Big.

Nevada, meet bowtie 🎀

[Dr. Arch]

is it an early vote % increase OR is it a general increase in voter turnout? I guess we will find out on election day.

Both. At this point, more Latinos have voted in FL than the entire 2012 election. Let that sink in.

[Dr. Arch]

They just extended voting hours at a Mexican supermarket to 10 pm.  Close to 1000 people in line.  If you have a panic button GOP, find it.

Raston just now.

Don't think it really is that many, however it does illustrate a point.

The firewall just gets taller and taller. Can't wait to hear about the net gains in NV tomorrow.

[Dr. Arch]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Holy moly (!!!!)

[Dr. Arch]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Holy moly (!!!!)

It was the reporting about the Obama campaign turning out infrequent voters in 2012 in Florida that made me feel comfortable predicting that he would win there that year. Feeling similar this cycle.

I told you guys polls would miss hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans. I've been saying it for months. You are now seeing it come to fruition.

[Dr. Arch]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

That's some filthy dog sweat kiddo. It's the weekend now, that R lead will be erased and it needs to be R+7 for Trump to have even a shot.

Not when indy's are factored in (they're up significantly) and we haven't even gotten to the Election Day vote yet, which will trend Republican. To think that "it's over" at this point is laughable.

Stop making up information. Indy's in CO trend D, not R. Obama was down 2% in CO by the end of it and still won by a decent margin.

[Dr. Arch]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

That's some filthy dog sweat kiddo. It's the weekend now, that R lead will be erased and it needs to be R+7 for Trump to have even a shot.

Not when indy's are factored in (they're up significantly) and we haven't even gotten to the Election Day vote yet, which will trend Republican. To think that "it's over" at this point is laughable.

Stop making up information. Indy's in CO trend D, not R. Obama was down 2% in CO by the end of it and still won by a decent margin.

I thought we were talking about NV where Trump needs R+7, no?

No, that's CO.

[Dr. Arch]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

That's some filthy dog sweat kiddo. It's the weekend now, that R lead will be erased and it needs to be R+7 for Trump to have even a shot.

As for Nevada, first it doesn't make sense to compare the numbers the include Friday with those that don't. And what more, yes, the raw vote margin even without Friday's numbers there has a small raw vote gap between dems and reps (around half as you noted), its perhaps illustrative to compare still to the total vote from 2012 which had a 60k difference. So losing 10k from that isn't the end of the world (assuming all other things being equal, which they aren't). Finally, mail in ballots, though fewer in number, are looking more even between parties instead of a R win.

So... there's some serious gaps in seriously's analysis, or lack there of. Tis a reason I have him on ignore...

With this kind of turnout, it's very possible they'll surpass the 70,000 vote firewall.

[Dr. Arch]

Don't derail the thread guys, just ignore his comments that are not about the EV. Let's keep talking about updates on NV, FL, NC, and CO.

[Dr. Arch]

Early voting data from CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/04/politics/latinos-voter-turnout-early-voting-2016-election/index.html


Early voting data in 3 key states show spike in Latino turnout

Extra spoopy

[Dr. Arch]

Nate Cohn

Less regular voters are steadily representing a larger and larger share of N.C. early voters

I wonder whose GOTV efforts is making that happen

[Dr. Arch]

Per Election Project, we have now crossed the 39m vote line with many states left to update from yesterday, 85% of 2012's EV.

[Dr. Arch]

No, Romney won whites by 24 in Florida...

Right! I looked at the wrong numbers. It's going to be close then, I hope whites have a better share of the electorate than 67%, around 70% or so.

70% was their share in 2012, and it's not happening this year. More Latinos have voted already than in the entire 2012 cycle. It's a huge Latino turnout election.

[Dr. Arch]

70% was their share in 2012, and it's not happening this year. More Latinos have voted already than in the entire 2012 cycle. It's a huge Latino turnout election.

67% -> http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/#exit-polls

Okay, in that case, it's definitely not happening for the reason stated above.

[Dr. Arch]

Jon Ralston calls the state of Nevada for Hillary Clinton (and probably Catherine Cortez-Masto).

Trump would need unthinkable Election Day numbers to overcome the early vote lead that Dems hold.

Freedom news!

[Dr. Arch]

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Keep that momentum going!

[Dr. Arch]

NPAs have passed the GOP in Broward County. With about an hour to go in the day:

DEM: 311,252
GOP: 123,152
IND: 124,266

Broward is now at almost 3/4 of its total 2012 turnout. Final numbers for the day will be in a little after 7 PM

Wowza. That's amazing.

[Dr. Arch]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  
Florida's Women : Men Gender Ratios of Early Votes Cast:
Overall: 1.3:1
Ds: 1.6:1
Rs: 1.1:1
NPAs: 1.1:1

More Republican women voting than men? Hmmmm, wonder what that could mean.

That's actually really unusual. Normally the GOP split is about 52/48 male/female and the Dem split is around 58/42 female/male. That's how you get a 52/48 or 53/47 female/male electorate

Looks like this electorate might be posed to not only be more diverse (read, epic Latino turnout), but also with more women. All things that benefit HRC enormously.

[Dr. Arch]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

Turnout was down in most of the state today

When's the last day for EV in FL?

[Dr. Arch]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

Turnout was down in most of the state today

When's the last day for EV in FL?

IIRC someone mentioned today is the last day, and for some counties, tomorrow.

Assuming it's the larger D counties.