Ukraine Crisis

[ag]

Two

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11035401/Russian-armoured-vehicles-and-military-trucks-cross-border-into-Ukraine.html

Not sure if the government should stop its offensive or not, but if Russian arms continue to pour across the border, and the government halts its offensive, it may not be able to regain the initiative. They may feel they are in a race against time. On the other hand, Ukraine should look for some way to help Putin to save face, as well as care about the future feelings of the population there, as they want to reintegrate these cities back into the Ukrainian polity. These considerations need to be taken into account, as military dimensions are not the only dimension, there is also political dimensions.

But it would be better if the rebels could just be convinced to give up. If they really care about the people there, why are they fortifying themselves in the cities determined to fight it out? They have no chance of winning without Russian intervention. It seems these local "fighters" are awfully selfish, if they are determined to go down in a  blaze of glory and talk about Stalingrad where over 2 million people died.

Especially after today, there is no longer any pretense that "rebels" have any independent decision-making authority. The potentially independent guys like Strelkov in Donetsk (a Russian from Moscow, but not really a Putin puppet, more of a murderous romantic with delusions of own grandeur) and Bolotov in Luhansk (actually, a local guy, with some ideas of his own) have been replaced by Russian-controlled soldiers. So, at this point, all questions should be addressed straight to Moscow. Why do they want to run street battles in the cities? Well, those are not their cities.  But, of course, we all should try to figure out how to "let Mr. Putin save his face".

[ag]

 Ukraine should look for some way to help Putin to save face

This one seems quite precious, does it not?

Precious or not, if Putin can't claim some fig leaf, he is quite unlikely to stop what he is doing.

I am afraid, this particular "if" part is superfluous here. He is unlikely to stop it whether he can claim a fig leaf or not. He can only be stopped.

[ag]

A country stuck between a rock and a hard place; the protesters range from naive "liberal" students to neo-Nazis. The idea that Ukrainians are a separate nation is silly, though.

ugh

Well, he probably also thinks Holland does not exist.

[ag]

Pretty much totally agree with this except for the "not 100% false part." Why are you keeping up that nonsense? Svoboda isn't even in government anymore.

Groups like Pravy Sektor and other militias are still fighting along with the Ukranian army. They are a small minority, but being the most fanatical, they are always on the frontline. If you prefer "fascists" rather than "neo-nazis", I am also fine with it, it does not make much of a different anyway.

The rebels may surrender to the regular Ukrainian army, but they will never surrender to these militias.

Most pro-Ukrainian irregular militias are, actually, composed of Donetsk amd Luhansk natives (batallions Donetsk, Azov, Aydar, ets.), who chose to fight the Russians. They are also the most ruthless. Pravy Sektor  proper is a tiny group. Yes, they are also fighting, but they are infinitecimal. Of course, this does not prevent their opponents from calling everybody "pravy sektor". But, then, again, they claim that everyone who has ever said "thank you" in Ukrainian is a fascist.

[ag]

And here's an English link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/ukraine-says-it-destroyed-part-of-armed-vehicles-from-russia.html

Time to mine the whole border to Russia.

That part of the  border on Ukrainian side is under full "rebel"/Russian control. Ukrainians tried to take it over, got surrounded (naturally, they were hit from one side by the "rebels", and on the other side by the Russians, against whom they could not respond for fear of being accused of attacking Russia) and almost wiped out (with great difficulty they managed to extricate part of the troops; a few more had to go into Russia, where some are still detained; a lot are missing).  They are now trying to severe Donetsk from Luhansk well within their own territory - they, basically, cannot operate near the Russian border at all (they claim that Russian artillery, based on Russian territory, has been in active action for quite a while - just out of sight of the Western media).

[ag]

In related news, US to deploy M1 Abrams to Estonia in October and are now backing Japanese ownership of the South Kuril Islands.

So now we're hopping on board with the xenophobic militarists who openly want to revive the empire and abandoning the San Francisco Treaty and the will of the ethnic Russians in the Kurils? That's not hypocritical at all (and it certainly won't help curry favor with China).

He, who has sown shall reap. At this point I would also consider supporting the restitution of Boli and Haishenwai

[ag]

In related news, US to deploy M1 Abrams to Estonia in October and are now backing Japanese ownership of the South Kuril Islands.

So now we're hopping on board with the xenophobic militarists who openly want to revive the empire and abandoning the San Francisco Treaty and the will of the ethnic Russians in the Kurils? That's not hypocritical at all (and it certainly won't help curry favor with China).

He, who has sown shall reap. At this point I would also consider supporting the restitution of Boli and Haishenwai

I think you can understand the difference between the situations in Eastern Ukraine (for the record I don't support Putin's incursion there, though I couldn't care less about Crimea) and the Kuril Islands.

Yes, I see the difference. Russia many times solemnly pledged to recognize and protect the borders of Ukraine (including Crimea) whereas Japan has always claimed the Northern Territories (South Kurils is the Russian name - the Japanese have never acknowledged the four islands to be a part of the Kurils). If anything, the Japanese claim seems a lot stronger.

In any case, how about Haishenwai? Would take care of any Chinese objections that one, that is for sure

[ag]

I really don't care about imaginary lines on a map. The South Kuril's inhabitants want to be Russian and would suffer under a very xenophobic Japanese government and culture. The Donetsk and Luhansk provinces only have a vocal minority which wants to join Russia, and should not be annexed.

Google what is Haishenwai

[ag]

I really don't care about imaginary lines on a map. The South Kuril's inhabitants want to be Russian and would suffer under a very xenophobic Japanese government and culture. The Donetsk and Luhansk provinces only have a vocal minority which wants to join Russia, and should not be annexed.

Google what is Haishenwai

Has Japan ever seriously claimed that area beyond their Russian Civil War misadventures?

Did I say anything about Japan?

[ag]

The new "prime-minister of the DNR" Zakharchenko announced today (on camera, at the meeting of the "parliament") that they just got major reinforcements: 30 tanks, 120 armored vehicles, 1200 soldiers "that have been training in Russian Federation".

What else is Russia supposed to do for the invasion to be official? Have Putin notify Merkel in person?

[ag]

The new "prime-minister of the DNR" Zakharchenko announced today (on camera, at the meeting of the "parliament") that they just got major reinforcements: 30 tanks, 120 armored vehicles, 1200 soldiers "that have been training in Russian Federation".

What makes you wonder?

[ag]

Looks like in the last few days Russia brought in major reinforcements. Ukrainians are in real danger of a serious military defeat right now. At the very least, the war is escalating badly.

[ag]

On something different, some members of Right Sector were arrested a few days ago. Two days ago the leaders of the group threatened to leave the eastern front and to walk on Kiev instead. After these threats, the members of the group were released today and some official at the Interior Ministry fired.

I think these groups are the key factor for a peace treaty. If Poroshenko manages to control them, it will allow the rebels and Putin to claim that the fascist threat has been stopped. But he cannot crack down on them too brutally, because they are still useful in the East and they are able to create a big mess in Kiev if they decide to.

Also, tens of civilian refugees fleeing Luhansk were killed when their convoy was attacked, both sides trade blame.

"Right sector" is near negligible, at this point. It us but one of many volunteer units fighting on the Ukrainian side. Many of these are, basically, groups of easterners, fighting in their own territory. They are, sometimes, insubordinate - but fascists they are not. As for the "Right Sector" proper - these are, literally, at this point a few dozen fighters behind a not-very-charismatic leader. They are not even among the larger volunteer units in the field - there are several that are a lot bigger. Politically and militarily they are negligible. And no, they cannot create bloody mess in Kiev - they are too inconsequential for that.

As for "fascists", etc. - this is hopeless. In the current Russian parlance EVERY Ukrainian is a fascist, unless he is in the pocket of the Russians. So is EVERY American, incidentally (unless his last name happens to be Snowden). Putin needs the "fascist threat" - he is not going to argue that it "has been stopped". Of course, the only true fascist threat in the world these days is presented by him and his government - and it HAS TO BE STOPPED.

[ag]

The new "prime-minister of the DNR" Zakharchenko announced today (on camera, at the meeting of the "parliament") that they just got major reinforcements: 30 tanks, 120 armored vehicles, 1200 soldiers "that have been training in Russian Federation".

What makes you wonder?

They say it so blatantly?

And?

[ag]

As for the "Right Sector" proper - these are, literally, at this point a few dozen fighters behind a not-very-charismatic leader. They are not even among the larger volunteer units in the field - there are several that are a lot bigger. Politically and militarily they are negligible. And no, they cannot create bloody mess in Kiev - they are too inconsequential for that.

It should not be too difficult to get rid of them then.

Get rid of whom? Of a myth?

[ag]

I have to disagree with you when you consider them negligible, and even more a myth. The proof is that it is enough for them to threaten Poroshenko for him to concede to their demands within one day.

And I am not the one who decided to give them so much importance. Whether it's because of an emphasis on them by the rebels and Russia, or thanks to good public relations, they somehow reached an importance much bigger that their number of fighters would indicate at first sight.

Well, considering that Russians tend to classifyl anybody who says "hi" in Ukrainian as a member of the "Right Sector", this is not surprising.  I will have to qualify my statement to say that, though nearly irrelevant in Ukraine, they are not irrelevant among those who get their news from (translated or not) Russian sources. Unfortunately, there is very little Ukrainians can do about it: it is not about Ukraine at all.

Once again: in Russian media these days ALL Ukrainians are fascists: simply by virtue of being Ukrainians. This includes Poroshenko, Yatsenyuk, Turchinov, Klichko and all their followers. Most Russians are now convinced of this. This has exactly nothing to do with Dmitry Yarosh and his few known followers. Short of committing suicide and ordering his troops to do the same there is nothing Poroshenko (or anybody else) could do to satisfy the Russian public opinion at this point. It would be a fools errand to try. Kill Yarosh - the Russians will ask why haven´t you killed Yatsenyuk.

And no, Putin is not looking for an exit. He does not need a pretext to get out. I am not sure he wants to get in en force at this point (he might be reasonable enough to realize it would be too costly), but he wants Ukrainians to continue dying in large numbers for as long as possible, and for the area around Donetsk to stay miserable no-man´s land for as long as possible: for decades, if he can get his way. Ideally, he would do the same in the rest of Ukraine as well (and beyond) - as long as he cannot have the whole country to himself, that is. His goons are going to make sure that thousands more people die - the more the merrier.

[ag]

Russia has unilaterally moved its "humanitarian convoy" into ukraine. The chances of the war becoming official has gone way up. All it will take is for "ukrainians" to bomb it.

They already bombed another Russian convoy last week.

That was one of the many undeclared military convoys, not to mention there is no proof that ukraine actually hit it chances are it was bluster. This is russias official white humanitarian trucks now.

Seems like the main objective of those trucks (carrying, according to those who managed to peak in some of them, mostly, clean Russian air - plus some small quantities of salt, bottled water, tea and the like) is to bring in their drivers, who are going to fight - and the trucks themselves that the "rebels" might find useful.

Once again it seems a major escalation is about to begin. Russians are concentrating on the border. Ukrainians are trying to concentrate whatever they have left. August 24 is Independence Day in Ukraine. They are planning a military parade in Kiev - with the troops to march from the parade straight to the front (conscious imitation of November 7, 1941 parade in Moscow, of course).

[ag]

Actually, it seems some of the first trucks are already on fire. They tried to get into Luhansk and have been stopped.

[ag]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/23/world/europe/russia-moves-artillery-units-into-ukraine-nato-says.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=LedeSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Ok. Now this is acknowledged officially.  Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian Army from Ukrainian territory: NATO knows it. What the hell are they planning to do about it ?!

[ag]

For those who understand Russian

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FLoKZQmJRk

[ag]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/23/world/europe/russia-moves-artillery-units-into-ukraine-nato-says.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=LedeSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Ok. Now this is acknowledged officially.  Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian Army from Ukrainian territory: NATO knows it. What the hell are they planning to do about it ?!

Probably nothing. Its not their responsibility to assist Ukraine.

I know. They are planning to wait till it is their job. Doesn't matter if it means extra millions of their citizens' lives taken.

[ag]

It appears that following several days of artillery bombardment from the Russian territory, there is a major invasion going on substantially south of where the "rebel"-controlled area has been, in the direction of Telmanove - Novoazovsk (closer to the sea). The border station is overwhelmed and at least 4 tanks have entered FROM RUSSIA. Once again, there is no DNR-held territory immediately adjacent, the attack is  conducted from the territory of the RUSSIAN FEDERATION.

Anyways, I guess NATO is going to wait till the Russians are crossing the Danube.

[ag]

ag, I am making some effort but I still don't understand why you are so afraid of Russia. Were you alive during the Cold War? Were you somehow involved?

Yes, I was alive Dreadfully scared as a kid that Americans would nuke my home

I am not afraid of Russia per se. I am afraid pf a country with nukes but without any checks or ballances.  Give Russia a reasonable set of institutions, and I would be ok - even with the same Putin elected. But at this point I am simply being aware of real dangers.

[ag]

Summary of the latest from the Russian blogs. Ukrainians destroyed a motorized unit (well inside Ukraine, of course). Found documents with names. Nearly simultaneously, some family members of Russian servicemen with the same names posted on social media the death notices. Within a day those were taken down and replaced with happy family notices ("my husband is alive, celebrating our daughter´s baptism and such). Some newsmen claimed to have talked with the "dead people", who were supposed to be happily at home. However, some local journalists in the area (it is the province of Pskov - the unit in question is the local paratroop division, and some of the soldiers are natives), based on earlier social media posts managed to show up at the funeral. Much of the division was present - and, yes, those are the names on the fresh graves.

Also, Putin has just awarded the Pskov Paratroop Division with a war-time decoration.

Not that anybody has had any doubts for a while, but, still... Poor relatives.

[ag]

Seriously, it seems like a major Russian attack is under way. Ukrainian troops, according some reports, are facing major reverses, if not worse.  Clearly, they are giving some back - but they are facing what amounts to regular Russian units. Things are truly bad.