United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[ag]

LibDems should run in the next election on Europe.

To what end? Vote for us and we'll stop the exit? Can't see that going down too well, now that Brexit is decided I don't see a single issue libdem can run on

Punish the parties that led us into this mess. They lost trust. We will negotiate European cooperation.

[ag]

LibDems should run in the next election on Europe.

To what end? Vote for us and we'll stop the exit? Can't see that going down too well, now that Brexit is decided I don't see a single issue libdem can run on

I imagine such a position would be very popular with some voters.  Even if that number is 20% of the electorate, that's a lot more than what the LibDems are currently getting.

Exactly. It will not be enough to win an election: so neither Labour, nor Tories will be able to adopt it. But LibDems, who have no chance to form the government on their own, may well increase their representation by it, clearly distinguishing themselves from the main parties. And, being firmly pro-EU they could, actually, condition their participation in a government, if coalition is necessary, on a repeat referendum - providing an excuse for whoever the PM is to run one.

[ag]

The thing that really gets me is the dishonesty and fear mongering over Northern Ireland. There is absolutely not going to be border checkpoints set up. Absolutely no way. The most likely thing to happen is  there will be a passport required to travel between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

I don't get it. What was the point of leaving the EU if not to impose ridiculous border restrictions?

There will be border restrictions, but not between Northern Ireland and the Republic!  This has been stressed over and over again but the Bremainers willfully ignored it to stir up fear.

How on earth does that guarentee border restrictions espoused by the Brexiters?
Does that mean there is a border check between Northern Ireland and Britain?
Also, will Northern Irish people be allowed to work over the border and vice versa with guarenteed equal treatment?

You have no idea what you are talking about, so id like someone else to answer.

Nobody has any idea what is going to happen. That is the point. Everything will have to be negotiated.

[ag]

LibDems should run in the next election on Europe.

To what end? Vote for us and we'll stop the exit? Can't see that going down too well, now that Brexit is decided I don't see a single issue libdem can run on

I imagine such a position would be very popular with some voters.  Even if that number is 20% of the electorate, that's a lot more than what the LibDems are currently getting.

Exactly. It will not be enough to win an election: so neither Labour, nor Tories will be able to adopt it. But LibDems, who have no chance to form the government on their own, may well increase their representation by it, clearly distinguishing themselves from the main parties. And, being firmly pro-EU they could, actually, condition their participation in a government, if coalition is necessary, on a repeat referendum - providing an excuse for whoever the PM is to run one.

That's like telling the Lib Dems to be pig headed and going for a strategy aimed at killing the party all together.

The UK is going to leave the EU (just listen to Jeremy Corbyn's speech today if you think it's not going to happen). Being stubborn about being "pro EU" is a complete platform non-starter.

The best the Lib Dems could do is bang on about seeking as deep a cooperative relationship with our European neighbours as possible from the position of being in an independent UK.

They see themselves as internationalist after all.

48% of Brits have just voted to stay. Ok, Scots will not be a part of this anymore, and some of the rest will get reconciled to what is going on (in fact, increasingly pissed, as the consequences unravel). But there will be a good 25%-30% of the electorate that will remain very pissed. And it will be particularly concentrated in well-defined districts. For a minority party, this is a bigger niche than what they have now.

[ag]

Hell also froze over today.

A month ago this would have been photoshopped as a satirical prediction of an absurd Brexit result.

I mean, it was extremely predictable. I have been puzzling all this time, why nobody in England cared.

[ag]

Some Labour people are suggesting that Labour's main pledge at the next GE should be to take us back in. Evidently they haven't seen the Nuneaton and Bedworth result.

That is the beauty of it for LibDems. Labour cannot take this stand. LibDems can.

BTW, I would also try to poach a few particularly pro-EU MPs from both main parties.

[ag]

Some Labour people are suggesting that Labour's main pledge at the next GE should be to take us back in.

That's not going to happen.

Of course not. The only party that can do this now are the LibDems.

[ag]

Some Labour people are suggesting that Labour's main pledge at the next GE should be to take us back in. Evidently they haven't seen the Nuneaton and Bedworth result.

That is the beauty of it for LibDems. Labour cannot take this stand. LibDems can.

BTW, I would also try to poach a few particularly pro-EU MPs from both main parties.

I seriously doubt there will be any lib dem surge though they may start to make steady progress. If the Lib Dems actually want to be an important part of our political system again they need to actually have an open and coherent ideology not be an 'all things to all people' party which was the reason they imploded during the coalition (look at the wildly diverging/random seats they held pre 2015).

They have just been gifted a very coherent ideology: Europe.

[ag]

Regarding that petition, its now been signed by almost 2 million people. So 4-5% of registered voters, and almost 1 in 8 remain voters.

Hopefully, these will be the new LibDem voters.

[ag]

Regarding that petition, its now been signed by almost 2 million people. So 4-5% of registered voters, and almost 1 in 8 remain voters.

I dare say the wounds this referendum opened aren't going to heal any time soon.

And how do we know all of the people that have signed the petition are actually British voters?

You know the remain side is clutching at straws when it is now brining out online petitions as evidence for why we need a 2nd referendum.

There will be no 2nd referendum, unless one is forced by the results of a general elections. In fact, I suspect, once it fully settles in, it will be the Remain side that will force England to get out faster than the Leave side wants.

[ag]

Regarding that petition, its now been signed by almost 2 million people. So 4-5% of registered voters, and almost 1 in 8 remain voters.

Hopefully, these will be the new LibDem voters.

Maybe they will. But the Tories from now on will be united as ever. The pro-Europe vote will be split between Labour, SNP and Libdem. So for the next ten years the conservative party will be the dominant party, i predict. By then, everyone will see that the UK will do just fine outside the EU. The Scotts will beg to return within the UK.

Tories will be very united: after a huge chunk of the party leaves. SNP will take over Scotland - no splintering there at all. England will be fine on the outside: merely somewhat poor and irrelevant, increasingly forgotten by the rest of the world.

[ag]

Project fear is still running i see

Imagine this: the UK will do just fine, or even better, outside the EU. Can you imagine the reaction in other memberstates? The coming years will be so interesting...

I can imagine lots of things, whether I consider them likely or not

England will do fine outside the EU. It will wind up following more of the EU rules than it follows now (e.g., it will probably join Schengen), and it will have no impact on formulating those rules. But on the surface things will not change much. They will be just a tiny bit worse than they would have been otherwise: but it will not be anything radical (except, of course, for the Scottish independence). I mean, people are unlikely to die if their incomes are 1% to 3% lower - nothing more radical than that. But in terms of "British independence" it will be exactly the opposite from what those campaigning for Brexit promised. England will be more dependent, more obedient towards Brussels - and it will have no say there whatsoever.

And, of course, it will not have Scotland.

[ag]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-allies-sabotaged-labour-in-campaign-and-fuelled-brexit_uk_576eb1b5e4b0d2571149bb1f?edition=uk

Corbyn's seat is trembling as well

Hopefully, he will be gone within a week.

[ag]

 Some more revote ideas.  How about Norway, which only narrowly rejected EU membership in 1994, and France which only narrowly approved Maastricht in 1992?

Or the Irish, who rejected the Nice Treaty in 2001 and the Treaty of Lisbon in 2008.... Oh, wait...

No, there is not likely to be a revote any time soon. Still, not unheard of.

[ag]

Verhofstadt (the Liberal leader in European Parliament, former Belgian PM) wants to meet with Sturgeon soon. I think he will not be the only one

[ag]

So, poor Boris Johnson happens to live in London (ah, yeah, he used to be the Mayor, was he not?). Today he had some pleasant moments getting out of his home. I wonder, if he is going to find the city a very comfortable abode in the near future.

[ag]

  I wonder about all those expat Brits in Spain.  I would think the Spanish government would work on finding a way to let them stay without too many problems.  Don't most of them spend money which comes from the UK into  the Spanish economy and not work?

Those who have been there for a while have likely obtained some sort of permanent residency and might be able to keep it. The new arrivals - those who have just bought their house, planning to retire, for instance, or have been only using it for vacations - there will be a problem there, unless a general agreement on population mobility is reached.

The default option would, probably, be the same it is for other "no comunitarios": having to renew a residence permit every two years, which implies, say, some 30 hours in lines snaking around the local "brigada provincial de estrangería", waiving a pile of documents nobody is going to bother reading (but without which they would not let you into the process), obtaining which would take another couple weeks of full-time effort, etc., etc. I mean, lots of Russians have settled there as well: they have been doing this all: gratefully. So, Brits will be exactly like the Russians, etc.

I do not know how is the Alicante estrangería, but, I guess, once Brits get into the system it will become overcrowded like hell. Madrid estrangería back in 2006-7 (in the old Carabanchel prison) was no fun, but I survived. No desire to repeat it, though.

In any case, if I were a Brit about to retire, I would be looking into Bournemouth right now. Until the agreements are reached, nobody can tell you what will happen.

[ag]

If it opts for an EEA agreement, why should Britain be excluded from having to sign up to Schengen? It'll effectively walk away from an 'immigration' based referendum having less control over it.

Oh, it will join Schengen, that is almost a given.

[ag]

If it opts for an EEA agreement, why should Britain be excluded from having to sign up to Schengen? It'll effectively walk away from an 'immigration' based referendum having less control over it.

Oh, it will join Schengen, that is almost a given.

Britain is not a part of Schengen.

I have been to Britain, and I have been to France and I, kind of, know   I mean, I used to be Russian: I had to get those visas. Incidentally, this is, probably, one point on which a middle-class Russian housewife from Voronezh, probably, has a better understanding that many of us here

My point is not that it is in Schengen. My point is that it will be.

[ag]

That includes the inability to stop an EU citizen to enter their country if they provide the documentation and a whole bunch of other technicalities relating to crime.

More precisely, they can stop or deport any EU citizen: but in an individual capacity. It is sufficient to declare security or national interest. They cannot put blanket restrictions against any group, though.

[ag]

I genuinely wouldn't like the UK to join the EEA, and rather focus on models like the (Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement) EU-Canadian Trade model. 

If it hurts the city of London, then be it, the UK economy must be restructured to generate wealth from other British regions, 

The UK Government, must focus on trade deals with the USA, commonwealth, South Korea, Japan, China, Brazil, etc.

Brazil is going to be a vey useful economic partner, I am sure. And trade deal with China will be very beneficial for manufacturing.

I mean, I do not expect people to be all experts in econ, but, at least, please think before posting.

Have you checked what share of public revenue is accounted for by financial sector in the UK? How deep a cut in the NHS are you willing to take?

[ag]

I genuinely wouldn't like the UK to join the EEA, and rather focus on models like the (Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement) EU-Canadian Trade model.  

If it hurts the city of London, then be it, the UK economy must be restructured to generate wealth from other British regions,  

The UK Government, must focus on trade deals with the USA, commonwealth, South Korea, Japan, China, Brazil, etc.

Brazil is going to be a vey useful economic partner, I am sure. And trade deal with China will be very beneficial for manufacturing.

I mean, I do not expect people to be all experts in econ, but, at least, please think before posting.

Have you checked what share of public revenue is accounted for by financial sector in the UK? How deep a cut in the NHS are you willing to take?

Im no expert on economy, but i genuinely believe that this whole single market thing to protect the Banks in london and their city mates , is just the reason why successive UK governments since the 80s led by thatcherism contributed to the deindustrialization to most of the UK manufacturing industries,
focused so much on London and neglected the steel, shipping, railway and other manufacturing industries, which kept entire communities behind since the 80s, which is still evident in the black country, Manchester-liverpool area, north east and glasgow

Its a real travesty that the country that invented the railways, now gave it all away for privatization and we are prohibited under EU law to renationalize the railways, which just shows how the EU works for big businesses and big greedy banks.  

Actually, chances are that, to a non-insignificant degree, whatever manufacturing still exists in England is there because of EU, not despite it. The giant elephant in the room (or, right outside it) is China. It has become the main supplier of everything for everyone worldwide. But within EU Chinese advantage is relatively muted: most of the manufacturing trade there is, actually, between fellow EU/EFTA countries. A big reason for that is, of course, that there is a relative disadvantage for Chinese products in terms of access: trading is much easier within the free trade zone. And that, actually, includes relatively easy British access to European markets.

Note that not only you have suggested that you want to be out of the free trade zone with Europe - you want more trade deals with China. China is much more of a threat to whatever manufacturing there is in the UK than Germany will ever be. So, even in terms of what you yourself consider desirable, your proposal makes exactly no sense. Establishing trade barriers between UK and Europe, while lowering them with China will, actually, make manufacturing in England a lot less competitive, not more. So, what you are proposing is smaller financial sector and smaller manufacturing sector at the same time. I wonder, what is it exactly you are thinking British workers are supposed to do?

[ag]

When we negotiate a deal with China, of course there will be a limit of protectionism, if the Chinese reject we can trade with them via WTO MFN.

Let me put it this way. You, probably, know a lot more about nuclear physics or ancient Babylonian literature than you know about economics and trade

[ag]

and you think they're coming back?

Why do you bother to ask? He thinks EU is somehow designed to get UK companies move to Malaysia and Turkey.