If McCain doesn't win tonight, is it over?

[Bacon King]

I  mean, McCain will almost certainly win, it's a townhall format.  If Obama flubs, it might be worth a couple points, but then the next debate is a format that Obama does better at.

Since the candidates won't be able to choose their own questions, they are extremely limited in being able to make decisive destruction of their opponent.  The questions are almost certainly be more folksy in nature than what a moderator would write.

We'll see.  I have noticed, just on anecdotal evidence, that Obama seems to do better in debates where he's standing, as opposed to debates where he's sitting (at least in the primaries/Saddleback too).  Therefore, all this might run counter to your conventional wisdom.

You know, I never thought about that, Sam. It makes sense, too, with the notion that voters historically prefer the taller candidate.

[Bacon King]

The problem is...McCain is more "real" than Obama. Obama has a perfect tall stance, a deep booming voice, and that instantly off-sets points, ala Kerry-Bush debate 2004.

Huh?

Obama's voice could hardly be described as "booming"; in fact, his voice is actually kind of soft.

Also, you can't make any remarks about height comparisons in 2004 because the Bush campaign forced them to angle the cameras and/or let Bush stand on a box so that they appeared to be the same height at all times.