EP elections 2014 - Results Thread

[Tender Branson]

One man, two votes: Giovanni di Lorenzo, editor-in-chief of the German newspaper DIE ZEIT announced yesterday that he voted twice. As a dual citizen of Germany and Italy he cast his ballots for both countries.

That's cheating! I didn't vote in France...

He's being investigated for it.

Oh, so there are laws against it? How are they supposed to be enforced, since there's no way to know if you've voted in another country?

Usually all precincts have voter lists and when you vote you get an [X] next to your name.

I think you can find out if someone voted twice ...

...

Did you read the previous posts? The issue is about voting twice in different countries.

What exactly is the problem here ?

If they investigate this, the most likely scenario to do so is:

* check where the guy has his residence in Germany and ask the election officials there to hand over the election protocoll to see if he has voted

* the same thing is done in Italy, either in the municipality where he is registered or at the Interior Ministry where he requested his absentee ballot or at the Italian embassy in the German city where he lives

* if it is shown that he voted twice, he will be charged in Germany, because he lives there.

...

Don't know if this has been done already (probably not), but there are ways to find out.

Still, I have long before argued for a centralized voter database for EU-elections with cross-checks to combat double-voting.

But of course none of this will happen.

[Tender Branson]

One man, two votes: Giovanni di Lorenzo, editor-in-chief of the German newspaper DIE ZEIT announced yesterday that he voted twice. As a dual citizen of Germany and Italy he cast his ballots for both countries.

That's cheating! I didn't vote in France...

He's being investigated for it.

Oh, so there are laws against it? How are they supposed to be enforced, since there's no way to know if you've voted in another country?

Usually all precincts have voter lists and when you vote you get an [X] next to your name.

I think you can find out if someone voted twice ...

That's kind of hard to check in two different countries,though.

I don't think it's hard to check, but rather hard to enforce the penalty (because what's the EU law about this "crime" ?).

If there are election protocolls in both his German and Italian precincts, that would be a matter of 10 minutes to find out if he voted twice.

[Tender Branson]

I understand how they can investigate this after they get information on potential fraud, but they would never even find out about that in most cases.

Yepp, good that the guy was stupid enough to admit it (maybe not a bad decision actually, because it turns the focus on a fraudulent system).

Like you said, there's only a chance to find out afterwards if someone admits it.

That's why a synchonized EU-voter database would be great, checked for double or triple entries that get deleted, so that the person is only able to cast the vote in the place of his main residence.

[Tender Branson]

I understand how they can investigate this after they get information on potential fraud, but they would never even find out about that in most cases.

Yepp, good that the guy was stupid enough to admit it (maybe not a bad decision actually, because it turns the focus on a fraudulent system).

Like you said, there's only a chance to find out afterwards if someone admits it.

That's why a synchonized EU-voter database would be great, checked for double or triple entries that get deleted, so that the person is only able to cast the vote in the place of his main residence.

Yeah, that would definitely be the best solution. Since people can vote in the country they reside in, there's no reason to allow residents of other countries to vote.

Theoretically. A mega-database like this could be a bureaucratic nightmare, data protection people would go nuts, as would the politicians of the EU member countries who would probably never set up a thing like that.

[Tender Branson]

The final Austrian results (postal votes were counted today):

http://news.orf.at/wahl14/ergebnisse/#ergebnisse

Maps:

http://news.orf.at/wahl14/ergebnisse/#analyse

The Greens won another 2 districts with the postal votes counted:

* Feldkirch in Vbg.
* Rudolfsheim-Fünfhaus in Vienna

[Tender Branson]

So whats the story of the Austrian People's Party doing so well in the middle of Vienna? 

Rich people, business owners, lawyers, stock exchange people etc. live there.

[Tender Branson]

The KNP (Poland) might join the new far-right EAF group, the "Standard" reports.

http://derstandard.at/2000001574429/EU-Wahl-Polnischer-EU-Skeptiker-strebt-Fraktion-mit-FPOe-an

While the Sweden Democrats have ruled it out.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout map:



EU-wide turnout was 43.1% (+0.1%)

[Tender Branson]

From the SORA election-day analysis (our version of an "Exit Poll"):

"Austria should leave the EU" - by party

Green voters: 3% Yes, 97% No
ÖVP voters: 6% Yes, 93% No, 2% undecided
NEOS voters: 8% Yes, 93% No
SPÖ voters: 14% Yes, 82% No, 3% Undecided
FPÖ voters: 62% Yes, 34% No, 4% Undecided

Total: 21% Yes, 77% No, 2% Undecided

(not always 100% because of rounding)

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ voters: 62% Yes, 34% No, 4% Undecided

Only 62%?

I guess it's possible to hate immigrants without opposing the EU. A bit odd, though.

Yepp, many FPÖ-voters actually like the open borders thing when they drive to vacation in Italy and cuts in roaming fees etc. - so not all want to get out of the EU ...

[Tender Branson]

Some "change maps" for Austria by district:

ÖVP (%-change compared with 2009 election)



SPÖ (%-change compared with 2009 election)



FPÖ (%-change compared with 2009 election)



Greens (%-change compared with 2009 election)



BZÖ (%-change compared with 2009 election)



Turnout 2014



Turnout (%-change compared with 2009 election)

[Tender Branson]

Some points that are worth noting:

* the turnout divide between North-Eastern and Western/Southern Austria.

* The SPÖ's gains in Carinthia.

* The ÖVP's losses in Styria and - important for this year because of the coming state elections - in Vorarlberg.

* The Green gains in Vorarlberg - important for this year because of the coming state elections - in Vorarlberg.

* The ÖVP gains in Northern Burgenland (state elections next year).

* The FPÖ's gains in Styria (already seen in the federal elections last year) and in Carinthia.

* The BZÖ's death all over Austria, especially in Carinthia (-> their voters went to SPÖ and FPÖ).

* The turnout increase in Southern Austria.

* The fact that the FPÖ gained the least percentage points in Vienna.

[Tender Branson]

Quite a few resignations already around Europe after some poor EP2014 showings.

PSOE leader Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba
Leader of the Irish Labour Party Eamon Gilmore
MSZP (Hungarian Socialists) leader Attila Mesterházy
Romanian National Liberal Party leader Crin Antonescu

In Denmark the pressure is mounting on the Liberal leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen, but for now it looks like he will try to fight through it.

In Austria, the BZÖ-leader could step down (it would be better if the party just dissolved alltogether).

Also, Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ) is under some internal pressure for the weak SPÖ-result.

[Tender Branson]

More or less OK results in Greece.

[Tender Branson]

PASOK did surprisingly well, all things considering.

You know what would be cool? Direct Presidential elections for the EU president. None of this stupid horse-trading and uncertainty.

Who knows, maybe we can bring in a European electoral collage. That's always fun to watch in the US.

Brrr, no: Better a direct vote for President yeah, but not an electoral college.

Btw: The current system is more or less an electoral college, with the heads of state being the electoral college members who are theoretically not pledged to support the winner of the election.

[Tender Branson]

Yepp.

Maybe the EAF gets the Sweden Democrats back on board somehow ...

[Tender Branson]

Don't know if this has already been mentioned:

In the precinct of the retirement home where Silvio Berlusconi is serving his community sentence, the overwhelming majority of votes in the community election there were cast for the left-wing PD: Of 39 votes cast, 19 went to the PD - while nobody voted for Berlusconi's Forza Italia.

In the EP election, the PD got 24 votes and Forza Italia got 9 votes.

http://derstandard.at/2000001636935/Kommunalwahl-Berlusconis-Altersheim-waehlt-links

[Tender Branson]

So, what are the 2 most likely parties to join the far-right EAF group, besides FN/FPÖ/PVV/LN/VB ?

KNP (Poland) and ANEL (Greece) ?

[Tender Branson]

Merkel now fully supports Juncker for CP:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/eu-kommissionspraesident-merkel-legt-sich-auf-juncker-fest-a-972535.html

[Tender Branson]

Is their a deadline for the horse-trading to end?

Yes:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

The final & certified election results for Austria have been released today by the Federal Election Commission.

Click here for results and map:

http://euwahl2014.bmi.gv.at

(This is only a formality, because according to the law there's a certain period for objection after the election - but the results did not change, like usual).

[Tender Branson]

Why ÖVP had not leading candidates in Tyrol, that was present to other parties?

Sorry, but I'm not sure if I understand ...

[Tender Branson]

None of ÖVP leading candidates were from their heartland Tyrol or Voralberg, and those areas had lowest turnout. A good candidate from that area would have been an easy seat for them. Did anybody sneaked in from lesser places on list.

Ah, ok ...

Claudia Schmidt (4th) was presented as the ÖVP's candidate for the West before the election, representing Vbg., Tyrol and Salzburg (she's from Salzburg).

Down the list, the 8th was from Tyrol and the 11th from Vorarlberg.

Of course, only 5 ÖVP-MEPs were elected.

Also, I don't think a local candidate would have increased turnout: Western Austria always has lower turnout than Eastern Austria and Claudia Schmidt from Salzburg hasn't changed that either.

I think the fact that more old people live in Eastern Austria than in Western Austria could play a role in the turnout difference.

[Tender Branson]

Renzi is supposedly pushing for a a female Commission president and the favorite seems to be Dalia Grybauskaite, President of Lithuania.

I have heard different things: Helle T/S (Denmark)

Really, all this backroom talk is nuts - bring on the direct popular vote for President and transform the Commission into some kind of Senate that we are directly electing as well.

[Tender Branson]

Renzi is supposedly pushing for a a female Commission president and the favorite seems to be Dalia Grybauskaite, President of Lithuania.

I have heard different things: Helle T/S (Denmark)

Really, all this backroom talk is nuts - bring on the direct popular vote for President and transform the Commission into some kind of Senate that we are directly electing as well.

Source?

 

I was reading it in a local newspaper.

This is one English source I could find:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10882531/Jean-Claude-Juncker-to-withdraw-bid-to-lead-European-Commission-sources-say.html