Meet the new map... same as the old map...
Delaware (3 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 13.06%The wise men and women at CBS News / NYTimes polling has declared that this is indeed a battleground state. Despite the fact that in 2000 it voted more heavily for Gore than such GOP bastions as Vermont and Illinois, I will in expression of my reverance for CBS polling officially be placing this state in the "Tossup" category...
Washington (11 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 5.58%Some wise Republicans I know have told me this state is truly in play and that it was a lot closer than the 2000 results would suggest because Maria Cantwell who won Slade Gordon's old Senate seat in 2000 "pumped up" the Democrat numbers here by spending something like $8 million of her own money...
I don't see anything that makes me move this state from the borderline between lean/solid Kerry
Michigan (17 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 5.13%In addition to generalized job loses in manufacturing, Michigan has been getting double dipped because many Big 3 auto jobs are moving sount as Ford plants shut down in Michigan and Honda plants open up in the South.
Like Washington, I don't see anything that makes me move this state from the borderline between lean/solid Kerry
Maine (4 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 5.11%Maine can split their EVS.. who ever wins each of the 2 congressional districts get one EV per, and the winner overall of the sate gets the other two. Maine 2 CD is very close. I mention this because if Kerry wins WEst Virginia and New Hampshire, and all other states stay the same, the Electoral College would be 269/269....
Still leans Kerry
Pennsylvania (21 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore + 4.17%Eight (!) polls in the last two weeks showing anything from Kerry +3 to Bush +7. Darn close right now, razor thin edge to Bush. Pennsylvania is, from an economic perspective. the state(among those in the rust beat) that will feel first and most any pickup in jobs and manufacturing. Based on the 308,000 new jobs in March (plus another 64,000 extra as they revised February upward) I am marginally confident in leaning this state to Bush.
Minnesota (10 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +2.40%GOP is very energized in this state. The "Get out the vote" effort from the GOP has gone from braindead to actually pretty decent in the last 6 years. I still think if it gets "really" close a lot of Nader votes will "come home" and keep this one for Kerry, but it might be razor close...
Oregon (7 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.44% NOBODY (at least not from this planet) really seems to understand this state politically. Portland + Eugene are as democratic as it gets, the rest of the state is Deep Blue Bush. It's a battle of turnout. Are the Tree Huggers more organized than the guys with the Chainsaws, or the other way around?
Haven't seen any polls from anybody I trust. I'll leave it for Kerry for now. That's not a "hard" call, just don't have enough evidence either way...
Iowa (7 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.31%For reasons that are not totally clear to me, Iowa is trending to Kerry at this point - Polls are showing Kerry at high single digits for a lead. No reason to flip this one.
Wisconsin (10 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.22%4 polls I've seen, two show Bush leading, 2 show Kerry leading. The Bush margins were bigger, but I trust the Kerry polls more... Wisconsin may bounce back fairly fast to Bush however if the new jobs trend stays good..
New Mexico (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Gore +0.06%Seen three polls, one with Kerry +2, one with a tie, and one with Bush +1. I haven't got a clue on this state. Toss a coin, leave it for carry, flip to Bush, take your pick ...
Florida (21 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 0.01%Actually, I have this state pretty solid for Bush. Florida's economy is actually in darn good shape. Brother Jeb is very popular (Despite all the "angry democrat" hyperventalating Brother Jeb won re-election in a semi-landslide of +13 in 2002) I also don't think Dem turnout has anywhere to go - I think Gore/Brazille turned out every live voter, and a few dead ones too there was to have in 2000.
New Hampshire (4 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 0.01%Two polls, two weeks apart by the same firm (ARG) has Bush +5 and +6. ARG is not a wretched firm by any means, but not quite enough for me to flip this state back to Bush. Less certain about Kerry taking this one than I was. If I see a poll from a firm I trust showing Bush ahead, I'd flip this state.. (I am surprised... I had this state semi-firm for Kerry a few weeks ago)
Missouri (11 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +3.34%Two polls, Bush +6 and Bush +7 - Can't see a reason to flip this one from lean Bush
Ohio (20 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 3.51%A real Battleground state. Ohio has been hit quite hard economically, perhaps even more so than Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc. Terrance Group just finished up the "Full Meal Deal" polling of Ohio and had Bush at + 4.7. Apparently they polled the $%$# out of all the swing counties like Montgomery, Franklin, Hamilton, Lukas, and Stark, which tells me the GOP is a bit worried, or at least planning to shore things up early...
This is a firm I deeply respect, but think that this far out the way they do their likely voter models likely pads Bush's lead by a couple points. Bush barely ahead seems about right to me. I haven't seen a full set of results from Terrance Group yet, so my opinion is still a bit soft on this one. Teeter/Hard has also polled the state and I think they publish on Monday.
Nevada (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 3.55%Mason-Dixon has Bush at +11. While I would be surprised if double digits holds, I'll keep this one leaning fairly hard Bush's way.
Tennessee (11 EVs)- 2000 Result Bush + 3.86%Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his runnning mate, the south is long gone...
Arkansas (6 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush + 5.44%Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his runnning mate, the south is long gone...
West Virginia (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +6.32%Too close to call. Saw one poll a tie, the other Kerry +2. Don't actually trust either poll, so I'll stick with "Lean Kerry" till I get something I trust.
Louisiana (9 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +7.68%Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his runnning mate, the south is long gone...
Virginia (13 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +-8.04%Unless Kerry picks Robert E Lee as his runnning mate, the south is long gone...
Colorado (5 EVs) - 2000 Result Bush +8.36%Colorado is in play... in 2008... but not this year......