Israeli General Election 2013

[danny]

If by failing to deliver you mean not opposing a peremptory verdict by the supreme court then anyone who advocated ignoring it is abolishing democracy in the way we know it, and that Begin can not agree to.

The Begin of the 90s same as the Begin of present days would both oppose a construction freeze directed by the government, a court rulling is quite different.

I wasn't talking about a court imposed freeze but about the Bibi imposed freeze.

[danny]

The latest poll:

Likud Beitenu: 39
Labour: 18
Shas: 10
JH-NU: 10
Yesh Atid: 9
The Movement: 6
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 4
Hadash: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Balad: 3
Otzma Leisrael: 3

[danny]

Notable among those that failed to enter, are Yariv Oppenheimer, the head of "peace now"(27) and Noam Shalit, father of Gilad Shait (39).

[danny]

There has been a flood of polls in the last day.

Yediot Ahronot:

Likud Beitenu: 37
Labour: 19
Shas: 11
JH-NU: 10
The Movement: 9
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Otzma Leisrael: 2
Am Shalem: 2

Yisrael Hayom:

Likud Beitenu: 39
Labour: 20
Shas: 11
JH-NU: 10
Yesh Atid: 10
The Movement: 7
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 3
Balad: 3
Kadima: 2
Am Shalem: 2

Globes:

Likud Beitenu: 37
Labour: 20
Shas: 11
JH-NU: 11
Yesh Atid: 10
The Movement: 6
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 3
"Arab parties": 11

Mishal Cham (a channel 2 program):

Likud Beitenu: 38
Labour: 18
Shas: 14
JH-NU: 9
The Movement: 9
UTJ: 6
Yesh Atid: 5
Am Shalem: 4
Meretz: 3
Kadima: 2
"Arab parties": 10

[danny]

So looks like despite all the hype about how the Gaza war would cost Netanyahu, there is virtually no chance he will not win another term. Good.

The thing is, that if you think Bibi was too soft during the war, but are not religious, you don't have much of an alternative. If Likud didn't merge with YB, and Lieberman was attacking Bibi's handling of the war, then Bibi would have been in more trouble.

[danny]

A poll was taken of first time voters only (people who were too young to vote in the last elections):

On the question of whether the consider themselves right/left:

49% right
20% centre leaning right
9% centre leaning left
5% left

Preference for prime minister:

Netanyahu: 32%
Bennet: 11%
Livni: 11%

Will you vote in the upcoming elections?

Definite yes: 61%
Probably yes: 26%
Probably no: 6%
Definitely no: 1%
Don't know: 6%

Knesset seats:

Likud Beitenu: 39
Labour: 17
JH-NU: 15
Yesh Atid: 11
Shas: 10
UTJ: 4
Otzma Leisrael: 4
Hadash: 4
The Movement: 3
The Green Movement: 3
Meretz: 3
RAAM-TAAL: 3
Am Shalem: 2
Balad: 2

[danny]

Also, MK Taleb el-Sana will leave RAAM-TAAL and run with his own party.

[danny]

Also, MK Taleb el-Sana will leave RAAM-TAAL and run with his own party.

Apparently he changed his mind despite being pushed down to number 5 on the RAAM-TAAL list.

[danny]

The musical chairs in this election is amusing as ever. This case is especially amusing as Peretz ran in 2006 focusing on economic issues, and is now leaving the party because the new leader is doing the same.

This adds to the irony of Livni using the "Mofaz law" (called that way as it was designed to help Mofaz leave the Livni led Kadima) to get public funding instead of Kadima.

[danny]

Also this election will now have two former leaders of the Labour party running in Livni's party (Mitzna and Peretz). That is on top of two other former leaders who have left their party recently (Barak and Peres).

[danny]

A recent poll by channel 10 (taken before the Peretz defection):

Likud Beitenu: 37
Labour: 20
JH-NU: 11
Shas: 10
The Movement: 9
Yesh Atid: 7
UTJ: 6
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Meretz: 4
Am Shalem: 3
Balad: 3
Hadash: 3
Kadima: 2

[danny]

and two more polls.

Knesset channel:

Likud Beitenu: 36
Labour: 19
JH-NU: 12
Shas: 10
Yesh Atid: 8
The Movement: 6
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 3
Otzma Leyisrael: 3
Kadima: 2
"Arab parties": 11

Reshet Bet:

Likud Beitenu: 36
Labour: 20
JH-NU: 11
Shas: 10
Yesh Atid: 9
The Movement: 9
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 3
Otzma Leyisrael: 3
Am Shalem: 2
"Arab parties": 11

[danny]

I doubt it will have any significant effect.

[danny]

The deadline to submit the lists is over now, so the defections and speculations about new parties will be over now.

A total of 34 parties have submitted their lists and will run in the elections. Up from 33 in the previous elections.

[danny]

In case you were wondering who to vote for.

[danny]

What is the Green Leaf-Israeli Freedom movement?

Marijuana legalization.

[danny]

I can't seem to find HaTnuah's list anywhere...

1) Tzipi Livni
2) Amram Mitzna
3) Amir Peretz
4) Elazar Shtern
5) Meir Sheetrit
6) David Tzur
7) Yoel Hasson
8 ) Shlomo Molla
9) Meirav Cohen
10) Orit Zuaretz
11) Aharon Valensi
12) Majalli Wahabi
13) Alon Tal
14) Robert Tiviaev
15) Avner Ben Zaken

[danny]

Poll from channel 1:

Likud Beitenu: 36
Labour: 19
JH-NU: 12
The Movement: 12
Shas: 11
Yesh Atid: 7
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Otzma Leisrael: 2

So it looks like the defection of peretz has helped Livni somewhat.

[danny]

On the Orthodox Jewish thing, what drift do I have to catch?

I think they mean Ashkenazi (but don't take it too seriously).

[danny]

Poll amongst "Russians" only:

Likud Beitenu: 68%
The Movement: 9%
Labour, Kadima, Yesh Atid, Jewish Home: 4%
Shas: 3%
Meretz: 2%
UTJ: 1%

[danny]

Poll from Haaretz:

Likud Beitenu: 39
Labour: 17
Shas: 12
JH-NU: 11
The Movement: 9
Yesh Atid: 6
UTJ: 6
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Meretz: 3
Am Shalem: 3
Kadima: 2

who do you think is more suitable to be PM?

Bibi: 64%
Livni: 24%
Don't know: 12%
---------------------
Bibi: 64%
Shelly: 17%
Don't know: 19%

Who do you think will be the next PM:

Bibi: 81%
Livni: 6%
Shelly: 4%
Don't know: 9%

[danny]

It's interesting that Livni is viewed as a likelier winner than Yachimovich...I really think with a good campaign Hatnuah could place second, ahead of Labour.

I don't think the difference between 6% to 4% is particularly meaningful.

[danny]

New polls:

Yisrael Hayom:


Likud Beitenu: 39
Labour: 19
Shas: 12
JH-NU: 10
The Movement: 9
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Kadima: 2

Kol Israel:


Likud Beitenu: 39
Labour: 19
JH-NU: 10
Shas: 10
The Movement: 9
Yesh Atid: 9
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
Balad: 4
Hadash: 4
Am Shalem: 3
RAAM-TAAL: 3

Knesset channel:

Likud Beitenu: 36
Labour: 18
JH-NU: 13
Shas: 9
The Movement: 9
Yesh Atid: 7
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Hadash: 4
Otzma Leisrael: 3
Balad: 2
Am Shalem: 2

[danny]

Big news with Lieberman resigning after the decision to indict him on corruption related charges.

The Israelis - 2

I don't think I've heard of this party. What is it?

A new Russian immigrant party.

[danny]

Big news with Lieberman resigning after the decision to indict him on corruption related  charges.

The Israelis - 2

I don't think I've heard of this party. What is it?

A new Russian immigrant party.

Lieberman in no way specified that he is not running in this election, he simply quit his job as MoFA

That is why I said resigned, we don't yet know if he will be continuing in politics after the next election.